If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…
Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.
I’m not sure about the exact ensemble of models used, but apparently they use “multivariate probit models with sentiment-based, macroeconomic, and financial indicators to provide a more robust signal of potential recessions.”
Both series are below thresholds.
I found even more interesting their heat map:
Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.
There is a strong divergence between New orders, the 10yr-3mo spread, and — to a lesser extent longer term unemployed — versus all else. Note that their heat map does not include unemployment, or a series that looks like the Sahm rule (which Sahm intended as a coincident — not leading — indicator).
You may have heard Musk was interviewing Trump on the Twitter. It seems they could not even get this right!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/x-users-report-they-can-t-access-spaces-to-hear-trump-and-musk-interview/ar-AA1oGodG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a9bd50024b5a47ed95e64cf323680b43&ei=15
Numerous X users reported difficulty getting access to the interview between Musk and Trump as they were set to speak Monday evening. The two were supposed to begin chatting at 8 pm on Spaces, as part of the site formally known as Twitter. However, when the conversation was supposed to start, numerous users reported errors or said they could not get into the conversation. “Lmfao all of Spaces entirely broken,” one user posted. “Disastrous showing for Musk and frankly over the top second hand embarrassment for Trump.”
Furthermore, Trump appeared to have a lisp at times. You would have to ask why and whether he has had a minor stroke? This adds to the question asked by the Harris campaign of why he is not out on the campaign trail.
his cognitive abilities have deteriorated tremendously. why is the trump family hiding this from the public? and how can a convicted felon be elected commander in chief of the military? and why does his vp dress in drag and mascara? why does trump want to fire union workers? why is his economic policies based on the performance of bitcoin? the Republican Party is off the rails right now, with a candidate that is too old and frail. its a krazy train!
This is hilarious. It turns out the hackers of the Trump campaign documents used Roger Stone’s email account as a vehicle to phish an undisclosed Republican campaign official’s account.
You may recall that Roger Stone was the intermediary between Julian Assange at Wikileaks and the Russians that leaked the Clinton campaign documents right before the 2016 election. Stone was convicted of obstruction and witness tampering regarding the case but pardoned by Trump after publicly stating “Trump knows I was under enormous pressure to turn on him. It would have eased my situation considerably. But I didn’t.”
Apparently the hackers have a sense of humor (or sense of Karmic justice) in selecting Roger Stone as their target for campaign hacking.
As an interesting side note, Politico has been secretly sitting on these leaked Republican documents for weeks and still have not published them. Politico was one of the first to publish the leaked Democratic campaign documents in 2016, complete with lurid headlines, day after day, just days before the election.
Maybe they are waiting until days before the election this time. That won’t work so well, what with early voting.
Ukraine appears to have taken about 1000 square kilometers of Russian territory in less than a week. Compare that to Russia having taken another 1200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since January. Imagine what Ukraine could have done if the GOP had not blocked weapons delivery at the most critical time – leaving Ukraine badly undersupplied when Putin started his offensive.
There’s that delay to take into account, and that’s on the Republicans. The prohibition against using long range weapons on military targets in the belly of the beast is on Biden and his overcautious approach. Between the lack of weapons and now the inability to hit airbases and supply depots deep behind Putin’s lines, Ukraine has been hamstrung for close to a year. They have overcome it anyway. And Putin’s red lines don’t seem to exist.
Putin is a dead man walking. I don’t know how long before he’s deposed or drops dead, but the day is fairly near. He’s been shown to be incapable and weak. Conscripts who weren’t supposed to be in the fight have been captured by the thousands now. They are likely to be traded for Ukrainian POWs eventually. I almost expect Putin to refuse to take them back for political and internal propaganda reasons.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to see what Ukraine’s ultimate goals are. My guess is cutting supply lines, but they could just as easily be taking territory in an attempt to get Putin to negotiate. They could also see this as a way to destabilize Putin’s regime and cause the government, and by extension the military, to collapse.
As always, my crystal ball is cloudy plastic.
this brings the hardship and hazard of war closer to home. up until now, the rest of Russia had no real concerns about the war, unless it was a mother sending her child off to death. but that was mitigated by sending off prisoners to death instead. but now everyday Russians are going to have to live in fear of war in their hometown. if you see Ukraine making attacks across the countryside, then you know that is the political message they are sending. this will put tremendous pressure on putin. bringing the frontline into Russia will change the dynamic quite a bit. the Russian people may absorb economic hardship, but they probably will draw the line with bombs in their back yard. I am in favor of the elimination of putin (interpret that however you would like).