Based upon the S&P Global national forecast, DoR concludes:
- Wisconsin employment is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, a full percentage point below the US rate of 4.0%. The forecast expects Wisconsin’s unemployment rate to peak at 3.6% in 2027, compared to 4.6% nationwide.
- Wisconsin’s personal income increased 4.4% in 2023 and just 0.6% after adjusting by inflation. Nominal wages grew a strong 5.7%, offsetting a decline of 2.4% in proprietors’
income. The forecast anticipates nominal personal income to grow 4.3% in 2024. Real personal income is expected to increase 1.7% in 2024 as inflation slows.
For employment:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast based on US NFP (red), and Department of Revenue May 2024 forecast (light tan lines), August 2024 forecast (blue lines), all in 000’s, s.a. Forecast based on first log differenced Wisconsin and US employment, 2021M07-2024M06, dynamically forecasted. Vertical axis is on log scale. Source: BLS, DoR, and author’s calculations.
The downward movement in July employment is preliminary. Exploiting the correlation between national and state employment, the July number is likely to be revise dupward.
As for GDP:
Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (bold black), and Department of Revenue August 2024 forecast (blue line), nowcast based on 2021Q3-2023Q4 in first log differences (red), +/- 1 standard errors (gray lines), all in bn.Ch2017$ SAAR. Vertical axis is on log scale. Source: BEA, DoR, and author’s calculations.
One mystery is why BEA’s estimates of Wisconsin GDP is seemingly detached from income measures (total salaries and wages, employment, Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index). It might come about because national level — as opposed to state level — industry specific price deflators are used, but that’s mere speculation on my part. The adjusted R2 between quarterly growth rates over the 2021Q3-2023Q4 is 0.70. The forecasted level is shown in red. Given sampling uncertainty, it’s possible to hit the DoR forecast.
As of mid-August, Eric Hovde believed the nation was on the verge of a downturn:
“I think we are on the verge” of a recession, he asserted, suggesting as well that it might have already started, but that economists typically don’t identify a recession’s start until months later. “I think we are either in it or very close.”
The data to date are not consistent with a recession having started in Q2.
More on the Wisconsin economy from Michael Collins (LaFollette) on WPR, Associate Director Laura Dresser on WIsconsin PBS (8/30).
Another Trump racist lie exposed:
Venezuelan gang arrests show threats, violence at Aurora apartment complexes
Police detail charges against 9 Tren de Aragua members as city leaders say Aurora hasn’t been “taken over” by gang
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/12/venezuelan-gang-aurora-apartment-tren-de-aragua-arrests/
The Aurora Police Department on Wednesday publicly identified nine members of a Venezuelan gang charged in 14 separate criminal incidents over the last 10 months, including at least seven events at the apartment complexes that a property management company has said were “taken over” by the gang. The alleged crimes connected to the Tren de Aragua members include two shootings, several assaults, thefts and instances of threatening people with guns. The allegations also include intimate partner domestic violence and disputes between roommates.
Court records detailing the allegations show that gang members in some instances intimidated and attacked residents at the Edge at Lowry apartment complex at Dallas Street and 12th Avenue, at the now-shuttered Fitzsimons Place apartments at 1568 Nome St. and at the Whispering Pines Condominiums at 1357 Helena St. The allegations do not include evidence of broad, organized, systemic gang-led extortion or control at the apartment complexes. Aurora police named the Tren de Aragua members and detailed the charges against them after former President Donald Trump twice mentioned Aurora during Tuesday night’s nationally televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump falsely claimed that violent immigrants “are taking over the towns,” further fueling a false narrative that members of the Venezuelan gang have overrun Aurora, a city of 400,000 people. That tale began earlier this summer when property management company CBZ Management claimed three of its properties in Aurora — Edge at Lowry, Fitzsimons Place and Whispering Pines — fell into disarray because of gang activity. City officials disputed that at the time, saying the properties had been cited for numerous longstanding code violations independent of gang activity. But right-wing social media influencers, politicians and news outlets seized on that report — and on a viral video showing men with guns in one of the apartment complexes — and spun the company’s claim into the false story that an uncontrollable Venezuelan gang problem spanned the city. Aurora city officials have consistently acknowledged the presence of Tren de Aragua, or TdA, members in Aurora but have said their numbers are few and they operate in isolated areas.
In other news – Maro Lago has hired a couple of Cuban chefs who are preparing meals of baked kittens with curry spices for the guests!