Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization.

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment – ADP (blue), civilian employment, 3 month centered moving average, smoothed population controls (teal), and industrial production (tan), and Bloomberg consensus (brown square), all in logs 2025M01=0. source: ADP, BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Civilian employment is not actually an observable during the shutdown, but the other two are. I include it for reference. With current betting on a 40 day shutdown, the next key indicator for release is probably the DP report.