Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower in the last 15 years, suggesting a trend decrease; the “vibecession” talk of 2024 is part of that phenomenon.

Figure 1: HP detrended level U.Michigan Sentiment (blue), deviation from log linear time trend (red), in points. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Michigan via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.

Usually, one doesn’t want to do a linear detrending on trending macro series, but in this case — given Sentiment is bounded, and cancels a unit root null — a (log) linear detrending is not inappropriate. Measured either way, consumer sentiment is low.