Deterioration, but not as much as implied by U.Michigan. May number out tomorrow.

Figure 1: Confidence Index (bold black), Bloomberg consensus (red square), predicted based on U.Michigan Sentiment, 25M01-26M04 (green), +/- 1 std error band (chartreuse lines). Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day”, green dashed line at US-Israel-Iran war. Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

The equation used to predict Conference Board Confidence has an adjusted R² of 0.48, SER of 3.22.