Trump statement today. In other news, from Kalshi, 12:30pm CT:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 6/1/2026.
This is the lowest odds recorded for July 1st re-opening, defined as 7 day moving average of 60 ships/day (when 100 is approximate pre-war rate). A slightly different contract on Polymarket has also reached an all time low.
Concurrently, in the crude oil market:
Source: NYMEX via barchart, accessed 6/1/2026.
Again , why would iran want to open it and make a deal? Trump has gotten himself into an awful mess with no way out. They will try to humiliate him before the midterms. Unfortunately iran underestimates the idiocy of the maga voter, who will double down the worse trump performs. Why else would you get paxton for senator?