Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today:

Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Here’s the picture for private nonfarm payroll employment:

Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg 8/28, and author’s calculations.

Goldman Sachs argues that the downward revision will likely be reduced in the final benchmark.