Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today:
Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Here’s the picture for private nonfarm payroll employment:
Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg 8/28, and author’s calculations.
Goldman Sachs argues that the downward revision will likely be reduced in the final benchmark.
Round of applause for Nela Richardson. She should be in for a raise.
ADP is often not very useful in any given month as a predictor of the reported change in BLS payroll employment, but it looks like ADP has been more accurate overall, predicting the BLS benchmark revision.
Off topic – how to ignore Congressional budget authority:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/27/trump-iran-war-navy-budget
Back in 1908, Teddy Roosevelt sent the Great White Fleet on “courtesy visits” around the globe, with the particular intention of warning Japan against attacking U.S. holdings in the Pacific. When Senator Hale threatened to withhold funding for the trip, Roosevelt reportedly said he’d send the fleet out and then Congress would have no choice but to pay to for the return trip; Congress authorized the trip. Something similar is going on here, but it’s more that just rhetoric.
Here we are, with Congress having voted to end the war with Iran and so far unwilling to pass a massive expansion to the military budget, and the felon-in-chief simply takes money from military payroll accounts and from money authorized by Congress for other activities to pay for his hobby war. This is illegal, but what’s new about that? Just another impeachment count, come next year.
Trump today: “BREAKING NEWS. The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer.”
“Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez!” This is banana republic corruption. You threaten lives and buy off government officials and then loot the country. I mean, crediting your “Secretary of War” as an architect of the agreement kind of gives the game away.
I wonder what María Corina Machado, who handed her literal Nobel Peace Prize medal over to Trump, is thinking today?
Note the fuzzy language.
So our oil companies are putting up the majority of the money into developing the oil production in an unstable country with a break even costs of $40-60 per barrel. I am not surprised that there were no other country that would invest in this high risk, small profit, endeavor. Sure it promises a slightly higher profit than a project in US, but at a much higher geopolitical risk.
The best they can hope for is that oil prices go so low that they can outcompete US new production. And we in the US are supposed to clap our little hands?
The worst part of it is that because Trump had to present it as “I attacked them, bullied them, and stole their oil” – there is a lot of recentment in Venezuela and it will destabilize the current (Trump installed) regime in the long run. A more competent US government would have tried to sell the narrative that US persuaded our oil companies to invest in Venezuela and that will create a lot of good paying jobs there. The facts on the ground is that there will not be a lot of money to harvest for any government or private entity – oil is a dying energy source. But there will be a lot of jobs in this. So we are doing something good for Venezuela but selling it as exploitation – how stupid is that.
“stole their oil”! Hey that’s how Trump endorsed Freedom Fuels charges only $3.47 a a gallon!
Venezuela reminds me of when the CIA intervened to overthrow Mosaddegh and install the Shah to regain access to the Iran oil fields. That didn’t work out so well in the long run.
Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it. Seems we’ve come full circle with the Iran war.
Wait a second – since Trump took office the United States has lost an estimated 156,000 manufacturing jobs between December 2024 and July 2026. So the GOP eliminating the solar and wind manufacturing jobs by cutting the renewable energy tax credits and Trump putting random taxes on manufacturing inputs with tariffs has NOT caused a revival of manufacturing in the U.S. Corporate media – can we all agree the Trump administration has been an abject failure in every area of governance. I am defining abject failure as a complete and deeply humiliating breakdown of a plan, project, or policy. Trump healthcare overseeing the comeback of infectious diseases and food poisoning. Trump Treasury Dept overseeing a 30-year Treasury yield hovering around 20 year highs. U.S. military conducting shadow operations in Central America and engaged in a war with Iran. Trump trashing all U.S. alliances and trading partners. Trump family engaged with massive, multi-billion-dollar business dealings and financial ties with Saudi Arabia.
The steep decline was all Biden’s fault. Little EJ and Kevin Hassett are telling us to look at that recent uptick. In other news, Trump ran a sub 4 minute mile.
ISW yesterday reported that Russia’s cost of the war is starting to bite seriously:
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2026/
“Russian Federal Treasury budget account reportedly ran a 5.5 trillion-ruble (roughly $63.8 billion) shortfall in April 2026, causing a temporary operational problem for Russian authorities. Bloomberg reported that authorities imposed austerity measures in April 2026 that required 35 percent cuts in funding for spending other than for the war effort and that the Russian government instructed federal agencies to prepare for a 15 percent reduction in staffing”
This is both good news and bad news. Putin can neither win nor afford the war, in the relatively short term. This is when dangerous errors are most likely to be made. No wonder we send our CIA chief to Russia. We better make sure they know exactly what we will do in response to whatever desperate actions Putin is contemplating.
In the same link there is an interesting quote from Bloomberg regarding Russias refining capacity.
“Bloomberg reported that Russia refined about 3.8 million barrels of oil per day in August 2026 compared to an average of 5.3 to 5.5 million per day during the summer months, also representing a decrease of almost 20 percent compared to August 2025”
So a year ago Russia could refine about 6.8 million bpd and now they are almost down to half. They used to export refined products at a high profit. Now they are selling crude oil at slightly elevated prices; but have to buy foreign refined products at very elevated prices (and still having severe shortages). At the end of that piece ISW mentions arm-twisting of Belarus President during a recent meeting ended with a statement that “Belarus intends to fulfill all obligations to Russia, including providing fuel supplies to Russia”. So Russia is spreading increased prices and shortages of gas to their dear friends in Belarus.
One of the reasons Belarus recently gave in to a threat from Ukraine to stop helping Russian drones with relay stations may have been that their refining capacity is based in just two huge refineries, one of which is close to their border with Ukraine. Ukraine could bring everything to a halt in Belarus with two simple drone/missile attacks over the border.
Bruce Hall drove all the way from Michigan to Pennsylvania to buy gasoline at $3.47 a gallon but when he got there – the price was over $4. Freedom Fuel is another Trump scam.
http://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/lawsuit-freedom-fuel-gas-stations-trump-01055248
That Freedom Fuel selling for less than $3.50 per gallon was stolen. No wonder Trump backs it.
Tom Tiffany and Trump are doing everything they can to hurt Wisconsin manufacturers – including HD motorcycles https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshmax/2026/08/26/canada-targets-big-american-motorcycles-with-a-50-tariff/
Well, that didn’t take long. Google Maps has officially renamed Lake Ontario to Lake America. So far Apple Maps is holding the line but don’t hold your breath. They knuckled under on the Gulf of America. Mapquest as usual is ridiculing the Apple and Google with their satirical app that allows the user to rename Lake Whatever.
These MAGA oligarchs are the worst. This is Germany in the 1930s when the business class decided it would be easier to just go along with the Third Reich. You’ve got to wonder what good it is to be a multi-billionaire if you have to regularly get down on your knees and kiss Trump’s disgusting a*s. These oligarchs want so desperately to be respected by the public but then they debase themselves so hideously you have to look away.
Let’s see – Kash Patel will hire for the FBI guys who have stolen from their employers or hired prostitutes. But be a black woman or a Hispanic man or even voted for Kamala – you are not qualified to work for the Patel FBI.
The FBI will now overlook for new hires theft from employers, hiring prostitutes, and you left out bestiality and animal cruelty (I’m not kidding, for real). These are weirdly specific exceptions. I guess Patel knows his loyal MAGA base.
Past acts of bestiality and animal cruelty will also be OK:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-candidates-prostitutes-theft/
Hey, Ken Rogoff is back. Who knew he still had a job after his humiliating debacle in 2010? I would have expected him to slink off in shame to retirement.
Rogoff on raising interest rates: “If they can possibly put it off till after the midterms, it would be good for the institution. We’re clearly in a constitutional crisis at the moment, and if you’re trying to preserve Fed independence, are you preserving it better by spitting in his face, or are you preserving it better by laying low and waiting until the winter?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/29/business/kevin-warsh-inflation-rates-fed.html
Because nothing says Fed independence like the Fed literally playing politics and laying low in cowardice.
Why anyone pays attention to Rogoff is a mystery. Recall that in his (and Reinhardt’s) fallacious paper, they didn’t just have a spreadsheet math error, they also cherry picked the data to eliminate countries that didn’t fit their hypothesis and on top of that also used some dubious weighting factors to make their conclusion look better.
But even worse, he didn’t just leave it there. Rogoff went on the political campaign trail using his academic authority and false conclusion to provide cover for Republican austerity policies in the wake of the worse recession since the Great Depression.
Rogoff and his austerity shtick caused a lot of harm to millions of innocent people.
The GOP was outraged to no end when Obama lost half of a billion of government support of one solar panel company going bad (the remaining $34 billion did great). Now Trump is going to give a $100 billion government backstop to develop oil in Venezuela. When that one goes bad it is not only going to be 200 times bigger loss. None of the jobs supported when the going was good will be in US. I am sure the GOP will be 200 times more outraged this time, right?
I think there may be a additional motive for doing this weird government-to-government “deal”, beyond pumping oil. Mineral reserves serve as financial collateral. You can borrow, sometimes at very long term, without much actual cashflow, based on the future value of reserves. Venezuela has not been all that impressive as an oil producer for some time, but has massive reserves.
Who benefits from the new availability of oil as collateral? Most obviously, the owners of the reserve, but also financial firms which structure loans based on that collateral. However shabby the actual economics of the lending, financiers take their vig off the top and don’t need to suffer any risk.
Who might think of such a thing? Well, Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Howard Lutnick, JD Vance (nee Bowman, nee Hamel) and Chris Wright might, to name a few.
Strangely, as soon as Trump announced that many corporations intended to either move manufacturing back to the US or expand US manufacturing, there appears to be a time lag before manufacturing jobs began increasing. Shouldn’t the effect have been immediate? Why wait for actual facilities to be built? There is plenty of room between rows of solar panels in large arrays. Just set up temporary manufacturing there.
In other news, AI appears to be not only building Skynet, but AI itself admits it’s going to eliminate some of those pesky humans from manufacturing and other jobs.
“AI appears to be reducing some employment opportunities more than it is reducing total employment.
The evidence as of 2026 suggests a few things are happening simultaneously:
Some jobs are being eliminated or hiring is slowing. AI is particularly capable of automating routine digital tasks, so clerical/admin work, data entry, some customer-service work, and parts of software, finance, and media are exposed.
Many jobs are being changed rather than eliminated. The ILO estimates that about 1 in 4 jobs worldwide has some exposure to generative AI, but says transformation of jobs is much more likely than complete replacement because most occupations still require human tasks.
Young and less-experienced workers may be especially vulnerable. Recent evidence points to weaker employment and wage growth in some AI-exposed entry-level occupations.
AI is also creating jobs and increasing productivity. New roles and skills are emerging, and the IMF reports that demand for new skills is already appearing in a significant share of job postings.
The biggest concern may be inequality rather than mass unemployment. A 2026 ILO review finds that large-scale displacement remains limited so far, while risks include weaker opportunities for younger workers and changes in job quality and bargaining power.”
— ChatGPT
Oh, wait, it’s just “inequality” that will increase, not joblessness. Nevermind. Abdul El-Sayed and AOC will save us from those Terminators.
Brucie, Brucie, Brucie, you never learn, do you? The felon-in-chief is not merely some new guy who recently lied his way into the White House. I know it’s hard to believe, but he was president once before. So sure, let’s assume he might create a manufacturing employment boom, off in the distant, unaccountable future, with the policies of his current administration – whatever helps you sleep at night. But in the mean time, let’s look at what has happened under various recent presidential administrations:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XYQ3
After a long period of decline, factory employment rose through most of Obama’s two terms and in the early part of the felon’s first term, then stalled once the felon’s policies were in place. The stall happened before Covid hit. Then, after the Covid recession, factory employment rose again during the Biden administration and then stalled. Sort of like during the first felon administration, but without the boost from Obama’s strong economy. Since the felon’s return to office, factory employment has fallen by 2%. No recession, just a loss of goods-producing jobs at a time when the felon has piled tariffs onto imported inputs to goods production and boosted the cost of oil with a war he promised he wouldn’t get into.
So by all means, let’s ignore the reality of the felon’s record. Let’s pretend his first term never happened. Let’s ignore the return to the bad old days of steady decline in manufacturing jobs. Let’s just listen to Brucie spin tales of a future in which everything we know about the felon’s performance is turned upside down! Hurray for the felon! Hurray for Brucie! Hurray for made-up stories!
Oh, and by the way, don’t think we missed how you changed the subject from actual factory job losses to potential future AI-induced job losses. And don’t think we missed how you induced ChatGPT to make up a story about how inequality “may” be a greater problem than job loss and then turned “may” into “will”. Changed the subject AND changed the verb – wow. All to distract from the felon-in-chief’s terrible record on factory employment.
Same old Brucie.
now bruce wants to argue that trump has not had enough time in office for his policies to fully take effect. fair enough, although I believe a false argument. however, bruce, trump was already in office starting nearly 10 years ago. so there has been a long time to look at his manufacturing growth record. remember he argued for a renaissance in his first term. but it never came either. so why expect the same grift with different outcomes this time around. what a fool you are bruce. trump conned you twice, and to stoooopid to even realize it.