Everybody else seemed to hear Bernanke say he was in favor of fiscal stimulus as one approach to our economic problems. But I instead heard him articulate very intelligently the potential pitfalls of the strategy.
Monthly Archives: January 2008
More Things I Learned at ASSA: Inflation and Labor Cost Measures
One of the AEA sessions I attended (at least in part — I missed the first paper) was titled (excitingly) “Reconciliation of Seemingly Inconsistent Data Series”.
Will inflation fears restrain the Fed?
I think not, and here’s why.
December retail sales
Disappointing yes, but the financial press is getting a little carried away.
The Implications of a Textbook Analysis of Macro Stabilization via Discretionary Fiscal Policy
From Reuters:
If Bush and Congress are to act at all, they will have to move quickly to have any impact, says Alan Auerbach, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who has done research on the effects of fiscal stimulus.
“Timing is extremely important,” he says. “Recessions typically last less than a year, so unless you can be pretty quick, it’s not worth doing.”
How low will Ben go?
Was 25, now we have 50. Do I hear 75?
Mortgage securitization
I thought it might be helpful to summarize some of the background on how we got into our present mortgage mess.
What Are the Prospects for a Two Recession Bush Presidency?
With recession calls becoming more frequent ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5]) it might pay to revisit the indicators that the NBER looks at in determining the turning points in recessions (The fact that NBER put up some new recession-dating-FAQs just a couple days ago might be a leading indicator of sorts).
International Reserves: Messages from the ASSA
I did not get a chance to go to too many sessions at the ASSA meetings in New Orleans (the AEA agenda is here). That being said, I did manage to squeeze in a few on international economics, and the topic of several papers was foreign exchange reserves.
Ongoing slump in autos
The weak performance of auto sales continues, with a new twist.