Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He has been doing some very interesting economic research recently in developing what he calls a Qual VAR model for predicting recessions. We are pleased that he agreed to share some of the current implications of that research with Econbrowser readers, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the
author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments
and does not constitute investment advice.
Monthly Archives: February 2008
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style, Redux
A year ago, I observed that the Bush Administration was projecting a balanced budget eventually, by assuming away expenditures. We’re in for a replay.
January auto sales
Detroit continues its slow bleed.
More murk in the crystal ball
Some good news, some bad, in the economic data released yesterday.
A “San Diego-style” recession
Alan Gin is an economics professor at the University of San Diego (a separate institution from the University of California at San Diego, where I teach). His San Diego index of leading economic indicators is sending a pretty strong negative signal.