If the Fed thinks that recent commodity price moves have nothing to do with their own actions, perhaps they should think again.
Monthly Archives: March 2008
Tabulating the Credit Crunch’s Effects: One Educated Guess
In a recent paper, David Greenlaw, Jan Hatzius, Anil K Kashyap, Hyun Song Shin exposed us outsiders to the inside workings of those estimates we see of how the credit crunch affects output. The paper, entitled “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown”, was widely covered ([1], [2], [3], Calculated Risk, Big Picture) but I still think that the conclusions, as well as the methodology, bear some repeating for emphasis. And in any case, it’s a long paper, and different people have focused on different aspects.
It’s not just housing any more
Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Two Questions: What Do Slowing Imports Mean? And Is There a J-Curve?
As the dollar continues to plumb new depths [0], and the economic slowdown continues, I want to discuss two questions about the trade balance that occur to me.
Just how badly is the U.S. economy doing?
That’s the topic of a piece I wrote for today’s San Diego Union-Tribune.