I was wondering how long real long term (ex post) interest rates remained negative after the onset of the Great Depression. This is obviously interesting given the large amount of slack currently in the global economy, and the rampant fears of crowding out (see [1]) as governments continue to run deficits (and are likely to continue as leaders refuse to raise tax revenues). Fortunately, Lawrence Officer and Sam Williamson have done the profession an enormous service by compiling online historical series on many variables, including interest rates and price, at Measuring Worth. It turns out ex post real rates were really low for a very long time…
Monthly Archives: March 2012
International Trade, an Enhanced Petroleum Transportation Network, and Gasoline Prices
Don’t expect a big impact on gasoline prices from opening up an oil pipeline to the coast.
I am a little late to this debate [0] [1] [2], but I wanted to highlight something that is clear from basic international trade theory. Opening up to international trade changes relative prices, and in fact raises some prices. If a pipeline were to be built which could transport oil currently produced in the Midwestern US to the Gulf Coast, then to the extent that oil in the Midwest is lower priced than on the coasts, then average US oil prices may actually rise with completion of the pipeline.
A rational reason for high oil prices
“There is no rational reason for high oil prices,” writes Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, in today’s Financial Times. Well, I can think of one– if oil prices were lower, the world would want to consume more than is currently being produced.
Simon Johnson and James Kwak on Learning — or Not — from the Past
I’ve been reading some history, from Simon Johnson and James Kwak‘s new book, White House Burning. And it strikes me how ahistorical (or just plain ignorant of history) so many of the prescriptions for fixing up the economy are. For instance, the tax cutting ideology of today is merely a recapitulation of what has caused America to come to grief at the Nation’s birth.
Disentangling the channels of the 2007-2009 recession
Harvard Professor James Stock and Princeton Professor Mark Watson presented a very interesting paper last week at the Spring 2012 Conference for the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Their paper studied similarities and differences between the 2007-2009 recession and other U.S. business cycles.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2010
The Chinn-Ito KAOPEN index — a measure of de jure financial openness — has just been updated to 2010 (site here). The results show some slight retrenchment in recent years, particularly in LDCs and emerging markets, as shown in Figure 1.
Assume a Can Opener*
Why do gasoline prices differ across U.S. states?
Gasoline prices differ substantially across different parts of the United States. For example, the average price in Illinois is currently 70 cents/gallon higher than that in Wyoming, and California motorists pay 86 cents/gallon more than the folks in Wyoming. Why is that?
Revisiting the Determinants of the Term Premium
In last Thursday’s post, John Kitchen recounted our joint work on what amount of foreign financing would be required to make consistent projections of government debt, and short and long term interest rates. That article from International Finance is now freely available on the Council on Foreign Relations website here.
“The Eurozone in Crisis: Origins and Prospects”
Time to breathe a sigh of relief, with resolution of the Greek bailout? Not so fast. Greece is likely to need re-adjustments to its plan [0] Plenty of challenges remain in the eurozone; PIMCO’s El-Erian says Portugal is next [1]. In fact, as Jeffry Frieden and I argue, the resolution of the problems facing eurozone policymakers is likely to be contentious and prolonged. From an article forthcoming in the Spring issue of the La Follette Policy Report, by me and Jeffry Frieden (since the article is not yet published, the working paper version is here):