Kansas GDP Growth Nil

Quarterly GDP figures for Kansas indicate essentially zero q/q growth in 2016Q4, and 0.3% y/y. This is true despite the end of the drought. BEA Plains region growth outpaces Kansas, as well.

Figure 1: Kansas real GDP, in millions Ch.2009$, SAAR ( blue, left log scale), and Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index (red, right index); lower values indicate drier conditions. Source: BEA (May 11 release), and NOAA.

Needless to say, this growth performance leaves something to be desired. In fact, 2016Q4 Kansas GDP is only 1.2% higher than it was in the first quarter of 2012 – over four years earlier.

Some might argue that the region as a whole is growing slower than the nation. In Figure 2, I depict Kansas, Plains and US GDP relative to 2011Q1.

Figure 2: Log GDP relative to 2011Q1 for US (black), Plains (teal), and Kansas (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.

Kansas GDP q/q growth decelerates 1.1% relative to pre-2011. US GDP growth accelerates 0.8%; Plains by 0.2%. Kansas relative to US GDP growth decelerates by 2.1% in the Brownback period; that deceleration is significant at the 6% MSL (using HAC robust standard errors).

Update, 5/27 9:30AM Pacific: Bruce Bartlett brings my attention to this paper which lends analytical substance to the assessment that Brownback’s tax cuts have not led to acceleration of employment growth. Here is a post discussing the source of the slowdown (keeping in mind balanced budget requirements).

4 thoughts on “Kansas GDP Growth Nil

  1. DeDude

    Wouldn’t you know; when you take money away from the consumer class and give it to the investor class, you slow economic growth and increase prices for non-productive assets. Nobody could have predicted – except for those with a basic understanding of economics. The sad part is that even as Kansas demonstrate the damage and failure of trickle down economics yet again here in US, the federal government is about to repeat that disaster at a much higher level.

  2. dilbert dogbert

    My wife and I are of the class that will not be hurt seriously by republican policies. That said, we do have hostages to fortune in our children and grand children.

  3. joseph

    “The sad part is that even as Kansas demonstrate the damage and failure of trickle down economics yet again here in US.”

    It’s not a failure if the goals are actually quite different. It takes a lot of hard work, intelligence, and a bit of luck to grow a business to return higher earnings and increase your income. It’s doesn’t take much work, intelligence or luck to increase your income by cutting your taxes. So the rich in Kansas can regard it as quite a success.

    Likewise on the national level, Republicans consider it a great success if they can increase their spendable income with little effort or intelligence by kicking 23 million people off health insurance.

    1. DeDude

      Correct, when I talk about “failure” my reference is to delivering the promised economic growth.

      There is no doubt that this is the classic RepubliCon where the actual goal is to serve the rich and powerful, but you have to cover it with lies and distractions to get sufficient support from those who are not rich and powerful. Interesting enough a substantial number of rich and powerful people have recognized that the classic RepubliCon is not a long-term winner even for the rich. You need economic growth in order for the capital owners to make money from their capital. Trying to grab a larger share of a shrinking pie can not bring you nearly as far as retaining a steady share of an ever expanding pie. Yes, some rich people are actually both smart and selfish.

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