JCT Dynamic Score of the TCJA: $1 Trillion Revenue Loss

And GDP is only averaging a paltry 0.8% above baseline level over 10 year period, given these massive, regressive tax cuts. Revenue effects:

Source: JCT (November 30, 2017).

9 thoughts on “JCT Dynamic Score of the TCJA: $1 Trillion Revenue Loss

  1. pgl

    “And GDP is only averaging a paltry 0.8% above baseline level over 10 year period”.

    As many including Paul Krugman have note, gross national income will fall relative to GDP with the net effect on gross national income likely being close to zero.

  2. baffling

    so the conservative economic policy increases the cost of healthcare, gives tax cuts to the wealthy, raises taxes for the poor, adds a trillion dollars to the debt and does nothing to promote economic growth of the economy. after one year of trump, this is what we are trying to achieve? those former coal miners in west virginia should be feeling foolish right now-and yet they still support the liar in chief. it’s all very baffling!

    1. 2slugbaits

      Yes, but as Sen. Lindsay Graham helpfully noted, it’s all about doing something…anything that looks like points on the board, otherwise the GOP ground troops won’t work for the party. It’s not about what’s good for the country; it’s about making sure the Red Team scores a goal in order to keep up the morale of the base.

      As to those coal miners, they’re dumb as dirt and won’t learn: “We don’t need no stink’n class consciousness!” Same with the dumb farmers in the Midwest who voted for Trump. The corporate tax cuts and big deficits will devastate agricultural manufacturing jobs, just as Reagan’s 1981 tax “reform” did. When (not if) they all lose their jobs they’ll blame in on that Muslim-atheist Kenyan.

  3. 2slugbaits

    And since 2011 multi-factor productivity has averaged about 0.4%. Couple that with an aging and shrinking workforce and it’s hard to see how long run growth averages much above 2%.

    1. Steven Kopits

      This is an interesting point. Per the CBO and BEA data, technically, we are above potential GDP now, so it’s hard to conceive that 3%+ growth would continue, but I’ll take the over. I’ll have a piece on this at CNBC next week.

  4. Not Trampis

    I am wondering when the increase in the deficit becomes evident to even these people they will then say there has to be cuts to various social services to reduce said increase in deficit.

    1. Efcdons

      What do you mean “wonder”? That’s the actual plan! The deficits are a feature of this tax cut, not a bug. It’s a direct continuation of the Republican “starve the beast” strategy. They are already talking about “entitlement reform”.

      The gop has given up the right to say “we can’t afford it” ever again. If this tax plan hasn’t killed off the last grand barginer then nothing will.

      For god sake, Orrin Hatch has already said we “can’t afford” to renew CHIP less than a day after voting for a trillion dollar plus deficit spending tax bill. It makes my blood boil.

  5. Jake formerly of the LP

    To add to Not Trampis’ point- How much would that 0.8% boost to GDP growth be reduced if health care costs more for people under the bill’s provision, or economic activity is cut back because of fewer tax benefits for home ownership under this bill?

    And we’re not bringing up the fact that businesses would likely use more expenses on capital and stock buybacks instead of paying employees if corporate tax rates are reduced, which stagnates wages in an economy that has 70% of it based on individual consumption.

    If anything, that JCT estimate is being very lenient to the GOP.

  6. Alan Goldhammer

    The more interesting story is taking place at Steve Mnuchin’s Treasury Department where some mysterious document is in preparation to dispel all the gloom and doom of the JTC’s pessimistic view of the Senate tax proposal. Judging by the press reports this will probably be some type of agitprop that fails to separate fact from fiction. I wonder if some economists have any moral code.

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