June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from over one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question. It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred in California.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in California (blue), in 000’s, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS.
Admittedly, these data will be revised. Still it’s hard to see how the data as reported are consistent with a California recession in 2017, or subsequently.
Wells Fargo wrote on today:
Golden State Hiring Gaining Steam
Hiring in California appears to be getting back on track. Total nonfarm
employment rose by 34,500 net new jobs during August, the largest gain of
any state. After somewhat of a slow start to the year, payroll growth appears
to be gaining a bit of momentum and is now up 1.8% over the year.
Menzie,
Why are you hating on Ironman on today of all days? Today the faithful were striking to raise awareness of climate change. I was feeling very guilty this afternoon but fortunately NBC news has developed a sacrament of pennance in which the faithful can confess their climate sins to NBC.
I did my confession today. It’s very shameful but here goes. I could have waited for the all electric Porsche Taycan but I didn’t have the patience. I test drove the hybrid panamera but it doesn’t handle like a 911. So I got the 911.
Please don’t hate me.
Brother Rick Stryker,
Dominus vobiscum.
Here is the correct link for those wanting to confess to NBC their climate sins.
So I got the 911.
Dear Leader wouldn’t approve. You’re hurting his trade balance. You need to get with the party line.
What did you do with your old Trabant? Hand it down to Rick Stryker, Jr.?
2slugs,
The American manufacturers don’t make a comparable care unfortunately.
dick striker, you are not making america great again with your actions.
OK I used the AC now and then this summer but I ate all of my food!
Awareness of climate change! It seems the kids at the upper crust elementary school up the road descended on the stoop of my neighbor and had a good time protesting the need for climate change. Smart kids. Hey Rick – maybe you should enroll at that school!
Wossamotta U didn’t give a day off to the students yesterday.
many schools in texas took the day off on friday, not to protest the lack of climate change legislation, but in response to the real world effects of climate change as the state took on another 40 inch rainmaker. not that dick striker cares that about any of that stuff.
Baffled,
Instead of giving the school kids a snow job day to protest climate change, why not instead ask them not to use their phones for a year to save electricity and reduce their carbon footprint?
What do you think would happen under my policy? I think we’d see the school kids tar and feathering Greta Thunburg on Fox News (CNN wouldn’t cover it).
Rick Stryker Instead of giving the school kids a snow job day to protest climate change, why not instead ask them not to use their phones for a year to save electricity and reduce their carbon footprint?
The first step is consciousness raising, and that’s what these walkouts and marches are all about. If you want to get people to change behavior, then you first have to create a shame and guilt culture. Someone who is a Ludwig Von Mises chair at Wossamotta U is beyond hope and the best we can do is leave it up to the grim reaper to take care of that problem. Climate change awareness will advance funeral by funeral, just as everything else advances funeral by funeral. We don’t want young people to turn off their phones. What we do want is for them to quit using their phones as vanity projects. Phones don’t have to be frivolous. Phones can reduce one’s carbon footprint if used responsibly. But before you can get people to act responsibly you first have to get them to think responsibly. And that requires consciousness raising.
I would suggest that the students at Wossamotta U protest the Ludwig Von Mises chair as a school embarrassment whose goals are inconsistent with the welfare of future generations.
wow dick, that was a real comebacker, in the same class as “i know you are but what am i”.
2slugs, i am afraid the use of consciousness raising will be ineffective with a mind like dick striker, who has no conscious.
I don’t do cars I have to fall into and climb out of. The two pickups and the Rav4 suit. My wife’s Tesla3 doesn’t suit.
@ Rick Stryker
May I present the notion to you, that people in the stratosphere of income you are ascribing to yourself, very rarely “get off” making anonymous comments such as this on a blog composed of people they work overtime at exhibiting they have little respect for?? May I?? And may I also postulate that it therefor makes your claims highly, uuuuuh “suspect” and largely unbelievable??
Thanks Biffy Stryker. Some people try a little too hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKKigLVtLjE
Moses,
I see. People who have 911s don’t comment on blogs. Rick Stryker comments on blogs. Therefore….
You might want to verify your first premise before you draw any conclusions. The Ludwig Von Mises chair in the department of free market economics at Wossamotta U comes with a very generous stipend, allowing me to live the Stryker lifestyle. But it is the duty of the holder of that chair to defend the free market wherever it is attacked, especially on blogs.
Speaking of income differentials, I’m sure that Barkley Rosser earns much more than you do, which is more evidence for the efficiency of labor markets.
i find it strange that a chaired professor of an eminent university would need to troll economic websites to promote his ideology. what are you embarrassed about dick?
@ Rick Stryker
Mmmm-hmmmm….. all of what you said seems very dubious (if humorous) information. Again, it seems I got under your skin. Again, a man with a “very high income” wouldn’t be wasting time debating people he himself has low-regard for. Your credibility is thin here. I will give you, even if you are most likely in the lower middle class income bracket (or lower) you add to the colorful cast of characters (some out-and-out losers) on this blog. And the fact you show kinship with the senile old man in northwest Virginia gives me great pleasure in life.
Ricky, You have used multiple pseudonyms on this blog, correct?? Even those of us here in the anonymous shadows can usually manage to stick with one pseudonym.
Moses,
I have stuck to Rick Stryker consistently.
I assume you are referring to Trump as the senile old man. You realize the White House is not in northwest Va, right? It’s in a place called Washington DC.
Just keep in mind that if you need recommendations on the best hotels and resorts around the world, the best restaurants, which airlines have the best business or first class, or whether the 911 turbo s is really worth the extra money, I’m happy to help.
@ Rick Stryker
Gee, all that AND links to old Tom Cruise movies??? Should I claim I have a neon green Lamborghini Countach and then put a link up of some scene from 1980s “Miami Vice”?? You’re trying to be funny right?? I think they have mobile apps which can find luxury accommodations and Michelin rated restaurants in any major city. You are living with us in 2019, right Ricky?? Or are you going to put a Youtube link to “Doc” Brown in the DeLorean time machine and tell us use of mobile apps is impossible, so we only have you and 1979 donald trump for travel recommendations?? You’re funny Ricky—this is the best laugh I’ve had since PhD Barkley Junior predicted it would be a neck-and-neck battle between Copmala and Biden for South Carolina.
Not to be too morbid here, but I thought there was a chance there might be a few people interested. Her services will be held near 9am USA Central time Saturday. I am hopeful Sam Donaldson will have 2-3 stories to lighten the mood of the event. I know this must be an extremely dark time for her husband as they were very close.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG06ZxWS-CE
I think she was a lady who could draw a smile from her TV viewers, because she could find humor in the ironies of politics.
A truly path breaking reporter.
This makes for a question. The areas that went for Trump by thin margins apparently had regional down turns eve if the overall economy was relatively robust. Is there a way to look at Pennsylvania, Michigan, and some of the other states that had narrow margins in 2016?
@ Willie
Your wish is our command:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-20/two-u-s-swing-states-lost-the-most-factory-jobs-in-past-year
I’m sure there’s other numbers and sources, but those are in the neighborhood of what you’re looking for.
Yes. Thank you.
Menzie
What does the California economy look like in the future? Such as the probability the state will be in recession by the the end of 2020? Shouldn’t the California analysis be at least as broad as that you have done for the US as a whole?
Ed
Ed Hanson: Don’t think there is an analog to the 10yr-3mo spread for the US that works to predict recessions *in Californai*b. And there is no theoretical reason why such a spread should be good at predicting specifically California recessions.
Best available would be 6 month forecast of Philadelphia Fed coincident index growth (from which you can back out implied level). No recession implied *using this index as a proxy for GDP* by Jan 2020, using latest readings. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/leading/2019/leadingindexes0719.pdf?la=en
Ah but Governor Brown suggested California separate itself from TrumpLand. If it did, it could issue its own currency. And of course the California Central Bank could really tick off Trump with an easy monetary policy which would lower interest rates, devalue the Trump $ v. the California currency and lead to an even larger U.S. trade deficit. Boy those MAGA hat wearing chumps would really be ticked off!
Menzie
California, for as long as I can remember, has had the most dynamic and flexible economy in the nation. The point I am getting at, if individual states can be measured as in recession or not, where does California fit compared to the nation as a whole over last few decades? Have they missed some recessions, or perhaps had more? If there is a relationship between California and the nation as a whole, do California recessions lead, lag, or just correspond with the rest of the nation?
Ed
Ed Hanson: Let me apprise you of a wonderful resource called “Google Scholar” (which is open access as opposed to SSCI/Web of Knowledge database): http://scholar.google.com . Punch in “california business cycle”, and you’ll see Owyang et al.:
This paper was eventually published in Review of Economics and Statistics, one of the top journals in the economics field.
Interesting paper which was published 15 years ago. It would be interesting if someone updated this especially in light of the Great Recession. On this:
‘Its most obvious deviation from the national experience was its extremely long recession associated with the national 1990-91 recession. California remained in recession until March 1994.’
My understanding is that CALI back then produced a lot of defense related products, which took a nose dive during the Peace Dividend.
Menzie
Thanks for response and your latest post using ‘Leading Indicators.’ The chart of CASLIND, seems to show that California leads (not necessarily causes) the nation as a whole into recession. The leading indicators for California even seem to a better indicator than the US leading indicators. I admit I once thought the endless repetition of “Is California in Recession?” was tiring, but it seems to be an excellent measure of the economic health of the US as a whole.
Ed
ed, the trump led tariff war is creating a recession threat that appears to be more regional than in the past. with respect to california, which is quite diversified, it very well could be true that this time is different, and california and the overall us may have different trajectories with respect to a recession.
Trying to understand how this is a log scale
Anonymous: Notice the distance between 16,200 and 16,400 is larger than distance between 17,400 and 17,600?
And of course 16400/16200 represents a 1.23% increase whereas 17600/17400 represents only a 1.15% increase.
Total nonfarm employment rose by 34,500 net new jobs during August, the largest gain of
any state. After somewhat of a slow start to the year, payroll growth appears
to be gaining a bit of momentum and is now up 1.8% over the year.
Since California has the largest population of any state, shouldn’t comparisons be done on the basis of percent change? For example, while Texas had an absolute change of +18K, that represented a 2.4% yr/yr change versus 1.8% for California. Florida had a 23K increase or 2.5%. Even tiny Nevada had a 3.0% increase.
California is not hurting, but using absolute levels of employment change is a bit misleading. If you look at the Western Census Region, California only beat out Wyoming and Montana for growth rate. https://www.bls.gov/eag/home.htm
Bruce Hall: Or you can read the BLS release, Table C (for statistically significant changes), and Map 2 for changes.
Menzie, thank you. The map is exactly to that which I referred. My comment stands.
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased in five states in August 2019. The largest job gains occurred in California (+34,500), Florida (+22,500), and Georgia (+20,800). The largest percentage gains occurred in Kansas (+0.6 percent), Georgia (+0.5 percent), and Arizona (+0.4 percent). Employment decreased in August in Oklahoma (-8,700, or -0.5 percent). (See tables C and 3.) ”
To give credit where credit is due – Bruce Hall finally makes a good point. And yes this document you have linked to is an excellent source when one wants to contrast absolute changes v. percentage changes.
Of course even in percentage terms – California’s employment growth ain’t that bad!
Map 2 is interesting in this regard. No state had an employment fall yet but take a look at the states where the employment rise was less than 1%. They include Wisconsin as you probably know as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania. If all three flip back blue, Trump is in big trouble in 2020.
Nice comment for a change. BLS provides a lot of great data. Could someone tell this White House to reward these guys rather than berate our smart and hard working public servants?
My mayor is not running for President – yea. Hey Bill – get back to the day job!
Cory Booker may be out to drop out. Yea!
Don’t get me wrong as I have a lot of respect for at least the few honest NY/NJ politicians. But maybe we should have a moratium on Presidential candidates from this area. Please!
I’m voting for Bick Benedict from Texas. Flyover country candidates have the New York slobs beat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4ptm6F2KHQ
They say that unlike donald trump, Bick Benedict has very big hands.
Dear Folks,
I don’t disagree with Menzie on this. But I would like to address one relevant point. California has a major aerospace industry. According to
https://www.aia-aerospace.org/research-center/statistics/state-level-data/
it makes up 1.9% of state GDP, and makes up for 6% of state exports. The industry is doing very well in recent years, as denoted by
https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2017/12/04/to-the-average-worker-in-southern-california-want-to-double-your-salary-consider-aerospace/
and
https://laedc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FINAL-REPORT-California-Aerospace-Industry-An-Economic-Impact-Study.pdf
The international tensions that have increased in recent years bode well for the continued growth of the industry. So the picture of California as a disproof of the economic policies of this national Administration is not completely straightforward.
Julian
Useful comment, Julian. As has been noted above by several, the great diversity of the Cal economcy means that it fairly strongly tied to national trends. One should probably focus on different regions of CA as these have very different export products, which may do better or worse depending on what are the factors generating a national slowdown or recession. Note that not just aerospace and computer software out of Silicon Valley, but Cal also has all that Holllywood stuf as well as oil and even a lot of agriculture, although the latter is more fruits (and wine) and vegetables than the grain crops so important in the Midwest, among other things.
2slugs,
The benefit of keeping the kids in school is that perhaps they could learn something about what they are protesting instead of spouting propaganda. Greta Thunberg today gave a speech at the UN at which she asserted ‘How dare you? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood” Why is she so hysterical? She seems to think that there is only a 50% chance to keep the temperature increase to 1.5C. And if we don’t, we’ll set off “irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.”
Where do these kids get these crazy ideas? She needs to get back to school. No scientist is saying anything like that. These kids should not be let out of school so that they can spread their tin foil hat theories.
and yet you can spread your tin foil hat theories, right dick? unlike you dick, ms thunberg has not been bought out by greed and selfishness. you sold your soul a long time ago. i would hate to feel as hollow and lonely as you are dick. a teenager has more compassion and concern for the future than an educated adult such as yourself.
Rick,
Of course, it may be wrong, but the main IPCC report claim is that to keep global temps from rising more than 1.5 C by 2050 would take net CO2 emissions to decline by 45 percent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050. We would need to go from about 25 percent of global energy coming from renewables to about 85 percent. Again, maybe this is wrong, but this does not look all that easy to achieve, especially if we have major national political leaders denying there even is global warming and doing their best to undo any policies directed at dealing with it.
Offhand I would not say that Thunberg’s speech is quite as propagandistic as you claim. It may be that a temp increase slightly over 1.5 is not as bad as she claims, but her claim about the probability of going over 1.5 looks to me if anything to be overly optimistic given current trends.
Hi Barkley,
I don’t object at all to her assertion that if we cut CO2 emissions in half, we’d have a 50% chance of staying under a 1.5C temperature increase. That’s straight out of the IPCC 2019 document. She lurches into tin foil hatism though when she claims that the world is on the verge of extinction and that if we don’t limit to 1.5C we will set off an irreversible chain reaction. The IPCC doc doesn’t say anything like that and there is nothing in that doc that justifies her hysteria.
Rick,
I have not read or heard her whole speech. It may well be that she overstated what would happen if say temp rose 1.6 deg C, which probably would not result in massive global catastrophes.
OTOH, I am an old friend and serious student of the late Marty Weitzman who provided serious arguments based on nonlinear dynamics and positive feedback effedts that the probability of extreme outcomes is higher than the main IPCC report states.. Heck, I have published on this.
Barkley,
Yes, I’m aware of the tipping point arguments, but Greta talks like that is a certainty. My view is that the climate models have so much uncertainty that it is impossible to say very much with any certainty.
What have you published?
Several papers, but most extensive discussion is in Chap. 11 of my _Complex Evolutionary Dynamics in Urban-Regional and Ecologic-Economic Systems: Beyond Catastrophe and Chaos_, Springer, 2011. Much of this gets down to whether or not the underlying probability distributtions are power law Pareto or normal Gaussian. IPCC report largely assumes latter, but the former looks more likely due to the substantial positive feedbacks in the nonlinear dynamical global climate-economic system. Pareto distributions have kurototic “fat tails,” whereas Gaussian do not. Those imply higher probabilities of more extreme outcomes.
BTW, one of the best shabu shabue restaurants in Tokyo is in the basement of the Imperial Hotel.
Rick Stryker I have stuck to Rick Stryker consistently.
Well, if you decide to adopt another moniker let me suggest a name: Thrasymachus.
The benefit of keeping the kids in school is that perhaps they could learn something about what they are protesting instead of spouting propaganda.
Well, it’s a trade-off. Having to miss a day of school is unfortunate, but what’s sadder is that a young kid felt that she had to educate the even more clueless adults who ignore climate change. Reminds me of the 60s when college kids boycotted classes in protest of the Vietnam war. Would their time have been better spent in class? Probably not.
I agree that she’s probably wrong about the 50% chance of holding climate change to 1.5 degrees. That 1.5 degree figure is almost a near certainty. And when she talks about having her dreams stolen, I take her to mean her generation’s dreams. She’s Swedish, so it’s entirely possible that Stockholm will be under water within her lifetime. If you’re a Swede, that probably counts as a broken dream.
2slugs,
It’s not about sea level rising. She thinks the world is ending. To quote:
“People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction. And all you can talk about is money and fairytales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Rick Stryker: Aren’t entire ecosystems collapsing? I could point to Great Barrier Reef for instance. I’m sure other people could point to others. There are mass extinctions going on. How many species disappear each year?
Rick Stryker As to mass species extinction, just a few days ago I saw some report on the alarming rate of species extinction:
https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/
I think you’re also taking a very parochial view of things. Climate change during your lifetime might not be any big deal. But climate change for a young person in Bangladesh is quite a different matter. That’s a recipe for a Mad Max kind of regional disaster that will be hard to contain within a region. And when Greta Thunberg talks about having her dreams taken away, I don’t think you necessarily have to think in terms of cataclysmic events as the only candidates for dream snuffing. The less the current generation does towards GHG abatement the more her generation will have to do. The reason this generation doesn’t want to confront climate change is because it would be very costly in terms of current consumption. By passing the problem along to Greta’s generation we are effectively telling her that she must further reduce consumption. That’s a welfare loss. And in her case it will be a big welfare loss. I’d call that a dream killer.
My view is that the climate models have so much uncertainty that it is impossible to say very much with any certainty.
So if the reliability of the brakes on your Porsche 911 Turbo was uncertain, would you just ignore the uncertainty and act as if there was no problem? Would you still pay full price for the car?
2slugs,
I don’t want Greta’s or Rick Stryker Jr’s generation to be adults in world of slow economic growth, rusty old windmills and solar panels that stopped working decades before.
There is no good analogy between climate change uncertainty and auto brakes. I can directly check the brake pads and the rotors. Plus, I can immediately tell if the brakes aren’t working just by using them. I don’t need to wait 50 years to see if the model predictions are correct.
Rick Stryker My comment was about how you would respond to radical uncertainty. It wasn’t intended as an analogy between auto brakes and climate change. But if you did want to make that analogy, then I would have to modify things. First, you wouldn’t be the one in the driver’s seat. It would be some anonymous person you never met who was forcibly strapped into the driver’s seat. So you are likely to be less concerned about that person’s welfare if the brakes fail. In that case your disregard of risk would be immoral, although I’m sure Thrasymachus would approve. Second, any problem with the brakes would have to be irreparable, just as there is no practical way to repair climate change. GHGs remain in the atmosphere for centuries. Finally, you don’t need to know exactly how the car will crash if the brakes fail. All you need to know is some basic physics: F = MA = bad news.
As to Greta’s or Rick Stryker, Jr’s generation, acting today to abate GHGs does not hurt their economic welfare. If the earth’s climate response to CO2 is less sensitive than most scientists today believe, then future generations will have greater latitude in using carbon intensive energy. I think that’s highly unlikely, but if you genuinely believe climate science is bunk and if you’re concerned about future generations, then you should conserve that exhaustible carbon resource today in order to make it available for future generations. That might make you worse off, but it doesn’t make future generations worse off. And if the climate change scientists are right, then consuming more carbon energy today increases the need for future generations to build even more rusty windmills. And to do that future generations must consume less and invest more. Future generations are the ones who will have to deal with the problem of stranded capital. No matter how you look at it, ignoring the climate change threat hurts future generations. No one believes that you are increasing your carbon footprint for the benefit of future generations. Thrasymachus would come up with a better cover story than that.
Moses,
Reading online reviews can be very misleading. The advice of someone who has actually done it is generally better.
Just to give some examples. If you look up top hotels in London online, the Savoy will always come up. It gets very good reviews. The Savoy Grill gets very good reviews too. I’ve stayed there many times. I’ve never thought the Savoy Grill justified its reputation. What I don’t like about the Savoy is the staff can be very obsequious. Just in the strand area there are many hotels that are just as nice and cheaper too: One Aldwych, for example, which is just down the street. Stayed there many times too as well as many others. The Dorchester is over the top luxury. But it’s location is a bit inconvenient. Dishoom is my favorite Indian restaurant in London but it’s always a very long wait to get in. But if you are in Edinburgh, there is also a sister Dishoom that’s just as good without the very long wait. The best Shabu Shabu restaurant in Tokyo, in my view, is in Roppongi. I know where it is but I’ve never seen it online.
The Four Seasons vary a lot. You can’t necessarily trust the reviews and websites. The Four Seasons in Whistler gets very good reviews but I’ve been there and the quality is way below other Four Seasons. In St. Petersburg and Prague they are fantastic. The Four Seasons in Kona on the Big Island and Liberia, Costa Rica are two of the best beach resorts I’ve ever been to. The Four Seasons in Neevis has a very nice beach, but it is not the same level place as Kona or Costa Rica. You wouldn’t really know that from looking online though. Nisbet Plantation in Neevis has incredible food and is very charming. But the Wifi is spotty and the beach is not really swimmable.
I’ve had three 911s with various equipment packages. You can’t really understand the relative benefits and costs of the different options, which for Porsche are very expensive, without talking to someone who has actually had experience with them. I did get the sport chrono package on all three, which I like. I don’t think the full leather package is worth it.
Rick Stryker: Cool! I drive a 1998 Saturn SL.
Time to get a new car I would think.
Yes, I can see where a 911 is an absolute necessity when you’re stuck in traffic or blowing through those 20mph school zones. And that superb handling comes in handy when you’re negotiating the turns in that parking garage.
2slugs,
I have a mercedes for those use cases.
every time dick striker comments on this blog i get the image of decrepit old tobacco executives who claim smoking does not cause cancer as they pass out cigarettes to the kids. i classify them both in the same category-sickening individuals. dick would trade his own mother in for a buck if he could make a profit.
Savoys are generally pretty good, but they do vary a lot. The one in Florence on the Piazza de Repubvlica is quite elegant, but its restaurant is embarrassingly poor for a good hotel restaurant in that city. OTOH, the one in Moscow is modern but not stylish (catty corner from the Metropole that appeared in _A Gentleman in Moscow_), but the Armenian restaurant in it was probably the city’s best about a decade ago, and is still excellent.
Hi Barkley,
I took a look at chapter 11 in your book. It’s a nice chapter that hits the right issues I think—the possibility of chaotic dynamics, risk vs uncertainty, fat tails, discounting, etc. My concern though is that the uncertainties in climate modeling are so great that we simply can’t say much really about dynamics, distributions, etc.
I’ve stayed at the Imperial in Tokyo a number of times and like it a lot. I had dinner in one of the hotel restaurants one time, but it was not Shabu Shabu. If I ever go back there, I’ll try it.
Unlike the Four Seasons, the various Savoy hotels are not related to each other, other than sharing a name. So I don’t think we should expect them to be comparable. Since the Four Seasons hotels are run by a single company, I would have expected more comparability than I’ve seen.
“My concern though is that the uncertainties in climate modeling are so great that we simply can’t say much really about dynamics, distributions, etc.”
if the system is not chaotic, then you have a point. but if the system behaves with chaotic tendencies, then this is a foolish approach to the problem. chaotic systems do not lend themselves to well described behavior in the long run. bad outcomes do exist and are not minuscule in chaotic systems, as barkley alluded to. putting ones head in the sand because this is a difficult problem seems pretty silly.
“I believe it’s false to think the problem of climate change is that there is a small but unknowable probability of an existential catastrophe.”
dick, this is an assumption and not a fact based on evidence. you then believe that we are not dealing with a chaotic system?
2slugs,
To answer your question, I believe it’s false to think the problem of climate change is that there is a small but unknowable probability of an existential catastrophe. Given the enormous uncertainties in the modeling, I don’t believe anything that comes out of the climate models. There is no basis for saying much of anything other than the temperature will probably go up somewhat, maybe.