Manufacturing employment in the three states that delivered the presidency to Trump is declining, continuing the trend from last month.
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and aggregate of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, 2018M12=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
Notice, based on the data available at end July, the predicted six month non-annualized growth rate of coincident indexes (i.e, the leading indexes) indicates negative growth in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Source: Philadelphia Fed.
“Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin”. Interesting. In my comments saluting you and Bruce Hall’s digging into the excellent state by state data from BLS, I noted that these 3 states had a ho-hum employment increase over the past year. And seems ho-hum has turned into decline. No wonder Trump and Rudy G. are once again colluding with foreign powers to smear their political opponents!
I would like to see these state maps distorted by population. The map would look weird but contain another piece of information.
@ dilbert
I’m not saying it wouldn’t be interesting, but not useful for the end exercise here. Based on your metric, you would have fit in well with the HIllary Clinton “brain trust” though (if you’ll allow me liberal usage of the noun “brain” here).
Uhm, what you really want to know is the electoral college count breakdown in each state, to do it the INTELLIGENT way. Now if you’re a “strong woman” like Hillary Clinton is a “Strong woman” you surround yourself with “strong women” on your campaign staff who tell you that you have these states already won, and then tell people you’re hypersensitive to E coli in the Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio areas and that’s why you can’t get on a campaign bus in those states, “because the extreme E coli problem” in those states. Then when you lose the electoral college count, you tell people that the women in rural areas of those states, who of their own volition chose not to vote for you “have extremely misogynist husbands”. And that’s how you become popular in America and build your party voting base. Soon to be unveiled in Hillary Clinton’s new campaign stratagems book “I’m With Me, and Other Tools of Campaign Narcissism Which Can Build the Democrat Party Base”. The forward to the book is written by Debbie Wasserman Gruntz and I hear Debbie’s prose is the stuff of legend. The appendix to Hillary’s campaign stratagems book is written by “strong woman” Nancy Pelosi who tells you how to kill impeachment proceedings of your party’s nemesis through backdoor channels. Let me tell you, Niccolo Machiavelli had nothing on these “strong women”. “hahahaha hahahahaha…… PIG”
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/allocation.html
Moses,
This comment by you is just a piece of disgusting worthless garbage. But let me point out something beyond this particular comment that I think both Menzie and Jim H. would appreciate. This incredibly idiotic post, like so many others you have disgraced yourself by posting here, is just full of boldings and capitalizations. This alone makes you a worthless loser, boy.
Really, Moses, are you so stupid as to not have figured it out that bolding and capitalization is an immediate sign that you are prima facie wrong in what you are asserting? Are you that ignorant, boy? When you do this stupid garbage you immediately discredit what you are saying. Really, boy.
I do not wish to put on the spot, 2slubaits, but, boy, he never ever does what you did here and have done repeatedly here in terms of forecasting doom, all this bolding and capitlizaing . You praise 2slug while not noticing that he and I only rarely disagree, usually over minor matters that we quickly resolve.
Maybe nobody had pointed it out to you before now, boy, but this capitalizing and bolding you have been indulging in for a long time just completely discredits anything you say, although if you have not figured it out by now that you are here a completely discredited piece of worthless garbage, well, boy, time to grow and get real.
J. Barekley Rossr, Jr.,
We know it’s tough for you getting old and non-relevant Barkley Junior. No offense is taken. People often grin when they see grandpa in the corner slobbering on himself as the family opens Christmas presents. I’m totally cool with it.
“distorted by population”.
Now that is funny! Menzie’s post on the absolute increase in CALI employment drew what might be the first ever smart comment from Bruce Hall asking to do this stuff in terms of per capita changes. So Menzie complies and we demand to “distort” this by doing it in absolute terms. Gotta give you credit for your command of the English language!
Last chance to put your Vegas/Reno bets in. I got Texas beating Oklahoma State today by WAY over 6 and 1/2 points. I think Texas beats Oklahoma State today by a minimum of two touchdowns (14 points).
Game predictions of Degenerate Gambler Uncle Moses are not guaranteed. All lawsuits related to lost money on such a wager should be directed to Joseph Maguire of the MAGA Gestapo.
Kentucky looks mighty red. Kinda gives a new meaning to the name “Moscow Mitch.”
I was kinda thinking the same thing. If Kentucky senatorial election voters act like presidential election voters, Moscow Mitch could end up booted. It would be poetic justice bit I won’t count on it.
One other thing – this is exactly the kind of granular analysis that I think is fascinating. So thank you, Professor.
I can’t speak to Wisconsin’s or Pennsylvania’s manufacturing employment, but Michigan’s is closely tied to U.S. vehicle sales which have been fairly flat since 2015: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-vehicle-sales . Although the U.S. population has grown, annual sales of 17-18 million new vehicles seems to be the ceiling and once that is hit, manufacturing employment in Michigan flattens tends to flatten: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS26000003000000001?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
Over the past decade, Mexico’s exports of new vehicle to the U.S. has grown by about 1 million vehicles. https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/15/auto-exports-from-mexico-to-the-us-surge-nearly-10/ . Presuming there was plant capacity to manufacture those vehicles in the U.S., manufacturing employment in the U.S. would probably be higher. But many of the vehicles produced in Mexico were lower value/profit and probably would not have been made here in Michigan with high labor costs (ask GM about that).
Higher value vehicles are also produced in Canada for the U.S. market: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2018/10/01/list-vehicles-built-canada-exported-united-states/1489920002/ . These could be made in the U.S., but there would not be much advantage in doing so given the plant investments already made in Canada… and that many of the vehicles produced there are sold there.
Michigan’s unemployment rate is lower than any time except 1998-2000 since 1990, so the expectation that it would go down further and employment would continue to increase in the manufacturing sector (given low population growth) would be unrealistic. In other words, this is about as good as it gets for this rust belt manufacturing state given the 40-year push to offshore whole vehicles and vehicle sub-assemblies. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS26000003000000001?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
Perhaps two or three other factors affect vehicle sales: affordability (https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2019/07/15/the-vehicle-affordability-knowledge-gap/#1448a13a5ec6) and durability (https://www.ratchetandwrench.com/articles/6136-average-vehicle-age-in-us-reaching-record-levels). This may help employment in the service sector, but not the manufacturing sector for Michigan. I believe that vehicle imports, primarily from South Korea, have grown during the last decade and taken market share from U.S. manufacturing facilities which would also suppress employment growth (although I don’t have the statistics to support that idea).
I would speculate that other states with significant motor vehicle production volumes (as a percentage of their total manufacturing) might experience similar flattening of manufacturing employment.
Bruce Hall: I thought Mr. Trump was going to save the auto industry.
Just to put this issue in further perspective: https://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/michigan-unemployment-claims-set-record-low?
With the exception of the GM/UAW strikers which may cause a temporary blip, Michigan is doing quite well right now for a rust belt state. Ford has eliminated its small car production in Michigan (except for Mustang built at Flat Rock) and will be producing the new Ranger/Bronco line here. Chrysler’s hot Dodge Ram trucks are built in Michigan.
That’s not saying things can’t turn if the economy goes south, but for now, Michigan vehicle production and associate suppliers are running pretty full. It’s not reasonable to say you can add a lot of water to a full glass.
Remember pgl, this post is about midwest manufacturing employment and my comments are specifically about Michigan.
“I can’t speak to Wisconsin’s or Pennsylvania’s manufacturing employment, but Michigan’s is closely tied to U.S. vehicle sales”.
You are rehashing this nonsense again? Look I asked you to check the 10-K filings for Ford and GM last time and it is clear you failed to do so. Not going to go after your incredible fallacies again except to note the automobile sector consists of lots of multinationals all over the world.
Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall clearly have an aversion of reading company financials before babbling his usual nonsense!
pgl,
I would like your take on the situation given your unparalleled knowledge of the auto industry. You do know, of course, that 10K filings are for the entire company, not one state’s activity. Note that there are no foreign brand vehicles manufactured in Michigan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States
Please list the fallacies as they pertain to Michigan alone. I’m very anxious to be educated by you after working 30 years in the auto industry and living almost 50 years in Michigan.
Menzie, I thought Obama saved the auto industry, especially the UAW, when GM declared bankruptcy. https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/obama-auto-bailout-was-a-union-bailout/
What didn’t get saved was the money from the Treasury. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-gm-treasury-idusbrea3t0mr20140430
I guess there is saving and then there is saving.
Bruce Hall: Betcha if we did a benefit cost analysis of the 2008/09 bailout, that would yield a ratio > 1. If we did it for the tariff revenues of 2018/19, I don’t think so…
Menzie, I’ll agree that the bailout for the union was beneficial for the union and kept many people in Michigan, so for the state, too. And I agree that tariffs, in the short run, won’t do anything positive for automotive manufacturing in the state.
As I mentioned in a previous comment that neither you nor “pgl” has attempted to refute (other than a snide an irrelevant comment about 10-K reports by pgl), Michigan’s manufacturing employment is closely tied to automotive manufacturing in the state and, other than adjusting which lines are made where, the industry is running at a steady, solid pace without any real growth over the past four years (some wiggle, but basically flat national retail deliveries). With overall unemployment at/near historical lows and flat, but high, national demand for vehicles produced in Michigan, one could say that expectations of large employment growth in Michigan manufacturing is not rational.
I can imagine the current conversations in the GM executive wing about more automation and subcontracting more assemblies. The union got its $23 billion gift from the Obama administration and has some of the highest paid blue-collar workers in America and are shouting with Elizabeth Warren for their “fair share”. I’m sure that plays well with the guy making wiring harnesses for GM’s engines at a subcontractors plant. Oh, and don’t forget the profit sharing at GM. $11,250 in 2018; $7,600 in 2019. And don’t forget the healthcare and vacation benefits.
Yeah, I don’t expect manufacturing employment to skyrocket in Michigan.
Bruce Hall Automotive stuff is a fairly large share of manufacturing in Michigan (approx. 42% of manufacturing), but it is not the single biggest industry. It’s well down the list. Finance & insurance add more that double automotive to state GDP. And real estate is half again as large, as is professional services. Automotive manufacturing is comparable to healthcare in terms of its contribution to state GDP. Today’s Michigan is not your dad’s Michigan.
I’m sure that plays well with the guy making wiring harnesses for GM’s engines at a subcontractors plant. Oh, and don’t forget the profit sharing at GM. $11,250 in 2018; $7,600 in 2019. And don’t forget the healthcare and vacation benefits.
You sound envious.
What didn’t get saved was the money from the Treasury.
I’m a little confused here. Are you upset because you think the Treasury should have retained ownership much longer? It sounds like you’ve become quite the socialist advocating government ownership of the means of production. Welcome aboard comrade!
“I would like your take on the situation given your unparalleled knowledge of the auto industry. You do know, of course, that 10K filings are for the entire company, not one state’s activity.”
You may not realize this but this sentence makes my point. Gee Brucie – me thinks you do not even understand what you have written. That’s OK as it is really not worth trying to understand.
“Michigan’s manufacturing employment is closely tied to automotive manufacturing in the state and, other than adjusting which lines are made where, the industry is running at a steady, solid pace without any real growth over the past four years (some wiggle, but basically flat national retail deliveries).”
My Lord – the stupidity just burns. Let me try with this definition:
Production in any region = consumption in that region + the region’s exports – the region’s imports.
I know it is a simple definition by itself but you incessant comments on this topic prove one thing – you do not get even basic definitions. Please stop as you have won. Donald Luskin is not the stupidest person alive.
pgl, you seem to believe that the state of Michigan’s manufacturing capacity/capability is nothing more than a simple equation. No planning needed, no financial commitments to be made. Just pull a few levers and push a few buttons. Buying and selling stocks on your computer may work that way, but product planning, facilities building, employee hiring, and all of the logistics required to do business are a bit more complex.
Once again… Michigan’s manufacturing employment is tied closely to its vehicle manufacturers and their suppliers. In order to expand manufacturing capacity, you can either build new plants or utilize plants more fully. The balancing act is never instantly achieved. If Ford builds a small car in Michigan and national demand is slow, it can repurpose the plant for trucks or SUVs or cut shifts. If GM builds an SUV in Michigan that is a national success, it can push production to three shifts, but beyond that it takes time and probably using a plant in a different state to expand production of that SUV… if another plant is available. But if Michigan capacity utilization is running high that doesn’t necessarily translate into higher employment in Michigan. It may lead to higher overall employment nationally if plants are available for more shifts or have been planned for and are becoming available. And even then, it doesn’t happen quickly. The fact that foreign brands are selling cars nationally doesn’t increase Michigan employment if they do not have assembly plants or suppliers in Michigan.
Remember, the original comment was about Michigan, not the whole nation.
For some reason, you simply can’t comprehend the logistics of production and employment. It’s not the same as day trading.
Bruce, 30 years in the auto industry? So, any pension? Health benefits? Profit sharing?
Like many, you seem quick to point out what you see as excessive benefits for workers. You have problems with middle class employees sharing profits and receiving health care?
I recently re-watched “Hazard County USA” and was not surprised to see company mouthpieces insisting there was no connection between lung diseases and coal mining. Or that the miners who were seeking health benefits–and better pensions– were no better than hillbilly commies.
Not unusual. There are more than a few fiscal converts in socialist California. After qualifying for six figure pensions, there are some drumbeating to call attention to what they see as pension problems. We have a notable retired sheriff locally with a $200K pension who’s very concerned.( You’d swear after listening to his schtick that he earned his pension by tinkering in his garage)
I may be mistaken, but higher paid workers likely contribute more in taxes and spend considerably in their locales. Problems?
“Over the past decade, Mexico’s exports of new vehicle to the U.S. has grown by about 1 million vehicles….Higher value vehicles are also produced in Canada for the U.S. market”.
Earth to Brucie boy – we sell lot of vehicles to both Canadians and Mexicans. I guess you never realized that. Could you please ask someone for some assistance as I suspect your IQ has slipped into the single digits.
I don’t even have to go the Annual Reports for Ford and Mexico as Census makes this easy:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/enduse/exports/c1220.html
(30000) Passenger cars, new and used (Canada) grew from $8.4 billion a decade ago to $14.4 billion in 2018.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/enduse/exports/c2010.html
(30000) Passenger cars, new and used (Mexico) grew from $1.9 billion a decade ago to $3 billion in 2018.
But our research impaired single statistic Bruce Hall thinks only Americans buy cars made in Detroit. Donald Luskin needs to work a lot harder to be the Stupidest Man Alive!
pgl you are attempting to conflate national issues with manufacturing employment in Michigan bout which was my first comment. It’s simply not working. But keep trying.
The rain in Houston simply does not have anything to do with the lack of rain in southern California.
“The rain in Houston simply does not have anything to do with the lack of rain in southern California.”
my understanding is an el nino brings rain to southern california and inhibits the formation of tropical systems in the atlantic. last i heard, the el nino of 2019 has dissipated. this prompted the increased call for tropical systems in the atlantic-which we are seeing, and will most likely result in drier conditions in california and the southwest. bruce, are you sure your statement is correct?
baffling really??? Come on now. Houston’s rain is not the cause of dry weather in California (my point). Now if both are a result of some third factor, then that’s another issue. Yes, we’re all interconnected, but at some point it’s a tenuous and trivial connection.
Demand for Toyotas in California does not have an impact on Ford’s current employment in Michigan (we are discussing Michigan’s manufacturing employment prospects) since Ford has not had much of presence in California for decades. Floods in Houston don’t alleviate drought conditions in California.
But I’ll check with you about the winter weather forecast for Michigan based on your insights. I’m guessing snow, cold, and short daylight hours.
“Houston’s rain is not the cause of dry weather in California (my point). ”
bruce, that is NOT what you said. you said
“The rain in Houston simply does not have anything to do with the lack of rain in southern California.”
as i pointed out, that statement is incorrect. carelessness and ignorance does not excuse you, bruce.
baffling: I’m sure Bruce will say “FAKE METEOROLOGY”. El nino/el nina are a leftist lie!
“pgl you are attempting to conflate national issues with manufacturing employment in Michigan”
WTF? The automobile industry is a global industry. Only the dumbest person on the planet would have written this sentence. Come on Bruce – we get you are beyond stupid so stop trying so hard to prove what is already obvious.
pgl one more time… Michigan manufacturing employment. Go back to the article to refresh your memory about the subject matter of this post.
To be fair – Census also notes we are importing a lot more from Canada and Mexico but I guess Brucie did not read his own link. It seems that the foreign multinationals have decided to set up their assembly shops as Mexican maquiladoras, so these gross measures can be very misleading especially when done on a bilateral basis.
Anyone reading the economist blogs – especially this one – would get that But not Brucie boy I guess. Better to look at the Census reporting of total U.S. exports and imports for the new car segment. Both doubled! Of course 10 years ago we were exporting just over $50 billion of cars while importing just over $80 billion in cars. Of course I get Brucie boy has no way of verifying any of this even if it is made easy by Census!
But single statistic Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall cannot report this as his research skills suck. Then again his basic understanding of international trade is even worse.
About 5 minutes of video journalism here. Americans aren’t willing to work 12 hours per day 6 days a week for the wages these people are, who are avid and craving to have a better life, similar to how Americans had strong drive in the 1940s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhereXhksVs
There are Americans who still have this kind of personal drive, but as far as on a “mass scale” or the “broad population”, it’s hard to recreate the kind of personal drive you see in this video, once society becomes more “spoiled”. Then you start worrying about how you’re going to get the university exam test key from your fraternity or sorority as the University president exclaims the kids in Sigma Alpha Epsilon are all outstanding paragons of humanity and he tries to rationalize the latest (of many) hazing incident where the new member died binging vodka was just “the cool kids” having some fun. Everyone knows only the best kids get into the fraternities.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/us/university-of-oklahoma-sigma-alpha-epsilon-racist-fraternity-video.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fraternity-expels-4-university-georgia-after-racist-video-surfaces-n986656
Those were stories that broke because they were on video, and we all know “nothing like this happened before” where video wasn’t there to catch it.
Well…… at least we have the Rick Strykers, The Steven Kopitses, and donald trump jrs of the world here to remind us who the “classy” and “refined” people of this world are, and these “fine outstanding young men” of the Greek symbols have their seal of approval, so the concrete has been set on that question.
The truth is 98% of Americans aren’t willing to “pay the price” Chinese and other Southeast Asians are will to pay to get these jobs. There are solutions to this—in the year 2019 tariffs are not one of those solutions. That train left the station a long time ago.
I guess they need to be in recession like California
So Trump is sending US troops to Saudi Arabia because “they asked for them.”
It’s part of the Trump Hotel Rewards Card. Book 100 rooms and he gives you a free war …
With someone else’s money of course.
Mercenary:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mercenary
“hired for service in the army of a foreign country”
“one that serves merely for wages”
Trump thinks our soldiers work for him personally. And of course Trump works for Putin.
“Trump thinks our soldiers work for him personally. And of course Trump works for Putin.”
No, I don’t think Trump thinks at all. He reacts without thinking. He’s got lucky living like that most of the time so far.
One of my more outrageous students was accused of having his brains in his (expletive deleted but it is just below the belt). I think Trump’s is too and we know his expletive deleted is even smaller than his hands!
[This is a snark]
Well, obviously the problem for WI, MI, and PA is that they have foolishly gone and elected Dems as governors. If only they were still run by GOP govs like Ohio and Indiana are, they would be enjoying the Trump boom big time.
Bruce Hall: “What didn’t get saved was the money from the Treasury.” [auto industry bailout]
From your link: “The U.S. bailout of GM and Chrysler, which received about $12.5 billion, saved 1.5 million jobs in the United States.”
Compare to Trump’s bailout of farmers due to damage from his trade war so far – $28 billion to 150,000 farmers. How’s that working out?
The top 1 percent of farm recipients of trade relief received, on average, $183,331. The bottom 80 percent received, on average, less than $5,000.
The top one-tenth of recipients received 54 percent of all payments.
Eighty-two farmers have each so far received more than $500,000 in trade relief.
One farmer in Missouri received $2.8 million.
That’s some awesome crony capitalism. I’m impressed. “Populism” seems to be confined to a tiny handful of the population.