Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
“Massive, rotting soybean pile still burns after catching fire in July”
Best simile ever for Trumpian trade policy. From UPI:
15 thoughts on ““Massive, rotting soybean pile still burns after catching fire in July””
Willie
The fire will burn out in November 2020. Timing is everything.
Moses Herzog
CoRev analysis shows that that same pile of burned soybeans, if you stuff it into a grain elevator, or “silo”, after 1 year’s time will be worth 5 times its weight in Perigord truffles.
Just saying……..
baffling
corev still believes trump and the farmers can win the trade war through storage of soybeans. in his world there is no cost to storing soybeans, and the beans are just as fresh as ever. on the other hand, this could be an example of trump farmers becoming innovative, and selling smoked soybean with their bbq.
pgl
“smoked soybean with their bbq”.
Sounds delicious but I think this would cause cancer.
pgl
Look on the bright side – overtime pay for the fire fighters! MAGA!
Moses Herzog
Martin Weitzman was a highly intelligent man. Highly intelligent. But one lesson Mr. Weitzman never learned. Richard Overton is going to tell you what that lesson is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXyfCGDnuWs
My Dad lived to be age 85, he had me when he was 46 years old. He saw a lot of things come and go in this world. The Great Depression and onwards. He told me most people who get advanced degrees (My dad had his Masters in education) don’t get it because they are more intelligent than other people. They get the advanced degree by persistence. Something to gnaw on.
Julian Silk
Dear Mr. Herzog,
I watched the video and thank you for it. Mr. Overton is extremely robust. He is doing many things correctly, but it is added on to a very robust constitution.
I knew Weitzman a little, and can tell you a few things. One, he was very definitely not religious. He may have gone to services on occasion, but he didn’t seem to me to be profoundly influenced by them. One of the things I see when I go is
צדיק יהוה בכל-דרכיב וחסיד בכל-מעסיב
i.e., “Righteous is God in all his ways, merciful in all his paths”.
and it is brutally hard to take. I don’t know how Weitzman would handle that at all.
I do know that there is a profound distinction between Mr. Overton and Weitzman in how they interact with politics. I can tell you for a fact that Weitzman did not expect Trump to be elected in 2016, and he must have had a very hard time handling it. If you expect that American liberties will cease to exist, and that the side you hate will win for decades to come, it is trivially easy to fall into despair, piles of soybeans burning or not. Weitzman did believe he was getting after the truth, and for people to vote for lies, as he saw them, must have been horribly difficult.
Julian
Steven Kopits
Not the smell of success, is it?
noneconomist
If only they’d raked their soybeans like they do in Finland.
baffling
i had posted an article a few weeks ago which discussed the changes occurring in texas, as the major cities are turning democratic and slowly beginning to grab voting control from the suburbs and rural areas. a lot of this is due to education, as the major texas cities are attracting more educated people from around the country. educated folks tend to be more liberal rather than neanderthal like. at any rate, a poll was just conducted in texas, and the results are not good for trump and the republicans. http://www.uh.edu/news-events/stories/2019/september-2019/09112019-cmas-latino-poll.php
texas is shifting away from trump. texas is also embracing gun control, by a significant majority. texas republicans are still playing voter intimidation games and such, to try and suppress the minority voters in the state. but their future is beginning to look bleak, and occurring faster than i had anticipated. in the next presidential election, the state of texas may legitimately be up for grabs unless republican cheat on the vote (again). trump and the republicans are not on the same page as the majority of registered voters in the state when discussing gun control and immigration, but seem oblivious to the implications.
When Texas decided to diversify the state’s economy and soften the shocks often accompanying the awl bidness, they set in motion what you have described. It’s taken a while, but a purple hue is definitely coming. Maybe not in 2020, but likely by 2024 (with more congressional seats slipping away from Republicans, especially in the suburbs).
Awl is still prime, but tech, machinery and associated equipment exports are now worth increasing billions/year and thousands of jobs not normally filled by those stereotypical Texas rednecks. A full-on trade war could cost thousands of jobs.
Remember the ruckus when Toyota transferred 3,000 (or so) employees from SoCal (and Ohio and Kentucky) to Plano? Methinks many of them did not become Ted Cruz boosters overnight.
And really, who needs to be carrying an assault rifle when ordering coffee at Starbucks?
baffling
diversifying the economy was also done by introducing green energy, especially wind, into the texas grid. texas is probably the largest wind producer in the country, by a wide margin. imagine red texas embracing green energy! green industries are bringing more liberal workers into the state. and conservative fossil fuel types are beginning to stop the “hate” as jobs depend on green. you will notice that diversity is not usually beneficial for conservatives, but it is inevitable if one wants a prosperous future.
2slugbaits
The article doesn’t say whether the soybean pile was insured.
A longer term consequence of the huge soybean carryover is that it will make the decision to plant corn even trickier. Corn is a nutrient hog and farmers really cannot plant corn more than a couple of consecutive times without seeing yields plummet. With Y-u-u-ge stockpiles of carryover soybeans farmers will have to think about higher fertilizer costs if they choose to plant corn versus depressed soybean prices if they plant soybeans to replace lost nitrogen. Or…heaven forbid, consider planting something other than corn or beans.
Neither political party wants to speak the hard truths about corn and soybean farming; viz., we simply have way too many farmers producing way too much corn and soybeans. Running a family row crop farm is a lifestyle choice that doesn’t make a lot of economic sense. It’s time to stop subsidizing those kinds of farms. It’s also time to stop socialism for Big Ag.
Barkley Rosser
Heads up, Menzie. I have leaked to your neighbor, Lones, in econ dept that you coauthored with Navarro once upon a time. Expect to hear from him.
The fire will burn out in November 2020. Timing is everything.
CoRev analysis shows that that same pile of burned soybeans, if you stuff it into a grain elevator, or “silo”, after 1 year’s time will be worth 5 times its weight in Perigord truffles.
Just saying……..
corev still believes trump and the farmers can win the trade war through storage of soybeans. in his world there is no cost to storing soybeans, and the beans are just as fresh as ever. on the other hand, this could be an example of trump farmers becoming innovative, and selling smoked soybean with their bbq.
“smoked soybean with their bbq”.
Sounds delicious but I think this would cause cancer.
Look on the bright side – overtime pay for the fire fighters! MAGA!
Martin Weitzman was a highly intelligent man. Highly intelligent. But one lesson Mr. Weitzman never learned. Richard Overton is going to tell you what that lesson is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXyfCGDnuWs
My Dad lived to be age 85, he had me when he was 46 years old. He saw a lot of things come and go in this world. The Great Depression and onwards. He told me most people who get advanced degrees (My dad had his Masters in education) don’t get it because they are more intelligent than other people. They get the advanced degree by persistence. Something to gnaw on.
Dear Mr. Herzog,
I watched the video and thank you for it. Mr. Overton is extremely robust. He is doing many things correctly, but it is added on to a very robust constitution.
I knew Weitzman a little, and can tell you a few things. One, he was very definitely not religious. He may have gone to services on occasion, but he didn’t seem to me to be profoundly influenced by them. One of the things I see when I go is
צדיק יהוה בכל-דרכיב וחסיד בכל-מעסיב
i.e., “Righteous is God in all his ways, merciful in all his paths”.
and it is brutally hard to take. I don’t know how Weitzman would handle that at all.
I do know that there is a profound distinction between Mr. Overton and Weitzman in how they interact with politics. I can tell you for a fact that Weitzman did not expect Trump to be elected in 2016, and he must have had a very hard time handling it. If you expect that American liberties will cease to exist, and that the side you hate will win for decades to come, it is trivially easy to fall into despair, piles of soybeans burning or not. Weitzman did believe he was getting after the truth, and for people to vote for lies, as he saw them, must have been horribly difficult.
Julian
Not the smell of success, is it?
If only they’d raked their soybeans like they do in Finland.
i had posted an article a few weeks ago which discussed the changes occurring in texas, as the major cities are turning democratic and slowly beginning to grab voting control from the suburbs and rural areas. a lot of this is due to education, as the major texas cities are attracting more educated people from around the country. educated folks tend to be more liberal rather than neanderthal like. at any rate, a poll was just conducted in texas, and the results are not good for trump and the republicans.
http://www.uh.edu/news-events/stories/2019/september-2019/09112019-cmas-latino-poll.php
texas is shifting away from trump. texas is also embracing gun control, by a significant majority. texas republicans are still playing voter intimidation games and such, to try and suppress the minority voters in the state. but their future is beginning to look bleak, and occurring faster than i had anticipated. in the next presidential election, the state of texas may legitimately be up for grabs unless republican cheat on the vote (again). trump and the republicans are not on the same page as the majority of registered voters in the state when discussing gun control and immigration, but seem oblivious to the implications.
follow on with another texas story
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2019/0912/Texodus-Why-the-Lone-Star-State-might-turn-blue-for-real-this-time
When Texas decided to diversify the state’s economy and soften the shocks often accompanying the awl bidness, they set in motion what you have described. It’s taken a while, but a purple hue is definitely coming. Maybe not in 2020, but likely by 2024 (with more congressional seats slipping away from Republicans, especially in the suburbs).
Awl is still prime, but tech, machinery and associated equipment exports are now worth increasing billions/year and thousands of jobs not normally filled by those stereotypical Texas rednecks. A full-on trade war could cost thousands of jobs.
Remember the ruckus when Toyota transferred 3,000 (or so) employees from SoCal (and Ohio and Kentucky) to Plano? Methinks many of them did not become Ted Cruz boosters overnight.
And really, who needs to be carrying an assault rifle when ordering coffee at Starbucks?
diversifying the economy was also done by introducing green energy, especially wind, into the texas grid. texas is probably the largest wind producer in the country, by a wide margin. imagine red texas embracing green energy! green industries are bringing more liberal workers into the state. and conservative fossil fuel types are beginning to stop the “hate” as jobs depend on green. you will notice that diversity is not usually beneficial for conservatives, but it is inevitable if one wants a prosperous future.
The article doesn’t say whether the soybean pile was insured.
A longer term consequence of the huge soybean carryover is that it will make the decision to plant corn even trickier. Corn is a nutrient hog and farmers really cannot plant corn more than a couple of consecutive times without seeing yields plummet. With Y-u-u-ge stockpiles of carryover soybeans farmers will have to think about higher fertilizer costs if they choose to plant corn versus depressed soybean prices if they plant soybeans to replace lost nitrogen. Or…heaven forbid, consider planting something other than corn or beans.
Neither political party wants to speak the hard truths about corn and soybean farming; viz., we simply have way too many farmers producing way too much corn and soybeans. Running a family row crop farm is a lifestyle choice that doesn’t make a lot of economic sense. It’s time to stop subsidizing those kinds of farms. It’s also time to stop socialism for Big Ag.
Heads up, Menzie. I have leaked to your neighbor, Lones, in econ dept that you coauthored with Navarro once upon a time. Expect to hear from him.