Growth Deceleration?

The nowcasts indicate slowdown.

Figure 1: Quarter-on-quarter output growth as measured by GDP (dark blue), nowcasts as of October 25, from Atlanta Fed (black square), NY Fed (red triangles) and Macroeconomic Advisers (chartreuse *), all SAAR. Source: BEA, Macroeconomic Advisers, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed.

Where are things likely to land, with next week’s GDP release? Deutsche Bank reports:

Source: Luzzetti et al. “Tracking the GDP trackers,” US Economic Perspectives, July 24, 2019.

6 thoughts on “Growth Deceleration?

  1. don

    The path of the Atlanta Fed error makes sense, but seems to be the outlier – what could explain the paths of the other forecasts?

  2. Alan Goldhammer

    There is a good article on line at the WaPo on the impact of tariffs on the domestic steel industry. It substantiates the point here about growth decelerating. I’m not sure if we are on recession watch but clearly there are some parts of the economy that are not robust.

    1. ooe

      You are wrong. the ISM manufacturing index has been sub=50 for two months in a row with Sept being 47.8. This is a harbinger of recession for the last…70 years!. Also, The treasury curve had inverted in late-summer. Also, the same happened in the summer of 2007.

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