20 thoughts on “Why Is the 2019 Slowdown Different than the 2016 Slowdown?”
pgl
So aggregate demand growth in the rest of world is weak. Which means we cannot count on a net export recovery.
But Trump and his minions are all gloating that our trade war may have hurt growth abroad as if making the USA less worse than our trading partners is somehow progress. Yes Trump and his minions are really THAT stupid!
Barkley Rosser
Well, probably what is needed is another tax cut for the wealthy. That will stimulate another round of investment at least for awhile that will help turn around this decline in IP (snark).
Steven Kopits
US industrial production pretty closely follows oil prices and the rig count.
With respect to that, let me quote myself:
“WTI has been creeping up on the absence of specific news. This suggests the pressure might be coming from the trading side, ie, some tightness is appearing in the physical market. As we have stated before, the current situation appears patently unsustainable. At a breakeven of $60, our model suggests another 65 horizontal oil rigs will roll off through Q1. At some point, this will end shale production growth.
Don’t expect the Saudis to save us. They, as most of OPEC, will be more interested in higher prices than higher production volumes.
Given that shales are expected to provide effectively all of net global oil supply growth in 2020, shales will have to be re-started, and pretty soon. This is a market prone to a rapid reversal of sentiment sometime between now and end Q1 2020.”
If you want to receive our twice weekly oil reports, you can sign up on the prienga.com website.
Bruce Hall
Well, after looking at the proposals by the Democratic Party candidates for POTUS, we will emerge strong and omnipotent by implementing:
• Medicare for all
• Tuition loan forgiveness and free tuition
• Reparations
• American Opportunities Accounts Act
• Tax credits for individuals/families earning $50K/$100K
• Green New Deal (and lots of good, government subsidies to pay for high cost energy)
• Universal child care
• Universal Pre-K
• Gun control
• Support DACA and decriminalize illegal entry into the U.S. (this is a big one that will help agriculture and landscaping by allowing millions more uneducated and low-paid workers into the nation)
I’m sure I missed some great ones. And all come built on a 2% wealth tax for people with over $10 million dollars in assets plus raising the estate tax. WE’RE SAVED!
Bruce Hall: In my book, beats selling the Nation out to the Russians, alienating our NATO allies, bankrupting the country by giving tax breaks to billionaires and corporations, putting kids in cages after separating from parents, deporting individuals who have served in the U.S. military, trying to eliminate birthright citizenship and revoke naturalization for others, etc.
Moses Herzog
Take it easy on Bruce. This is a tough time for him.
Bruce has got to rationalize in his mind how it’s ok to use money designated by Congress for an ally’s military defense, as a bribe for personal aims to falsely implicate a political opponent in a national presidential election. In the meantime putting at risk a U.S. ally, and put that nation at much higher risk for an invasion by Russia, and further Russian military aggression into Europe. All of this facilitated by his personal lawyer in a shadow government fashion (in essence impersonating a Secretary of State). Meanwhile the real Secretary of State, and others such as Mulvaney and Mike Pence are watching this happen and applauding it as “U.S. government policy”. And all of this as Europe, having political chaos of its own, looks at what donald trump is doing to weaken Ukraine’s military defenses and wondering which European country donald trump is going to throw under the bus next. https://youtu.be/r6Rc68FXk-E?t=78
And why does donald trump commit this crime along with many others?? Because donald trump knows everyone in America sees him as the shallow fraud he is now—so he has to paint his most probable opponent in the presidential election as a fraud on the same level as himself.
2slugbaits
Bruce Hall If Medicare is good enough for you, why isn’t it good enough for other people? Why are you so special?
Green New Deal (and lots of good, government subsidies to pay for high cost energy)
So you would prefer tax subsidies for dirty fossil fuels with marginal social costs exceeding marginal benefits?
Gun control
So you’re such a bad shot that you need a semi-automatic weapon with a 100 round drum magazine?
allowing millions more uneducated and low-paid workers into the nation
Are you claiming that the wages for those low-paid workers exceed the value of their marginal product of labor? As to “uneducated”, that’s rich coming from Trump voters.
Bruce Hall
2slug
I’m fine with MFA… we have it for people who paid into the system for decades and everyone is eligible when they’ve paid their dues. Now we are to just give it away? Okay. You might remember that even after paying into the system for decades, you still get to pay into it monthly. It’s not free. And you have to love the ineptitude of the SSA in administering Medicare.
At a town hall in New Hampshire, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, one of the many Democrats running for president in 2020, was asked how he would stop the federal government from wasting taxpayer money.
“This has got to be a major initiative for Democrats; we don’t talk enough about waste in the government,” Ryan replied. “If you look at the Medicare program, for example, there is $50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program. That’s a billion dollars a week.”
Oh, you’re thinking about the free stuff Medicaid! Got it. No? I guess you’re not really thinking at all.
I’m fine with GND… we have all the clean energy we want for free. Oh, wait. We don’t. We actually have to have fossil fuels keeping the grid going because the “alternatives” really aren’t. And those $7,000 tax credits are real money so someone can feel “woke” about the vehicles they buy. And you seem to conveniently ignore the the vast government subsidies for dirty “green” power (where do all those non-recyclable solar panels and wind turbines go when they die?) . Of course, GNDers don’t like nuclear power either, so I guess we go with pedal power. But I’d take natural gas or current generation nuclear power before tilting at windmills or poisonous solar panels. Meanwhile, China gets a pass on coal power plants.
Guns. Actually, I’m a pretty good shot and I have the same Constitutional right to my weapons as you have to your free speech. You can have my guns if I can take away your free speech. You might actually consider why the Bill of Rights has the 2nd Amendment… this history behind the words. Do some reading. Here’s a hint: http://www.pbs.org/tpt/constitution-usa-peter-sagal/rights/first-and-second-amendments/ I know, I know. What does a Yale law professor know about the Bill of Rights?
Now we get to the real subsidies… the government assistance for all of those low-paid, unskilled laborers you long to have bringing their culture to your neighborhood. Yeah, that’s worked well for California which has the highest real poverty rate in the U.S. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2016/09/28/why-does-california-have-the-nations-highest-poverty-rate/#74c2f24512d9 . But I guess those rich liberals need someone to keep their gardens and kitchens going. Besides, experience has shown that the mild climate in California can allow the poor to live comfortably on the sidewalks or under expressway overpasses.
Yeah, a few trillion here and a few trillion there and pretty soon you’ve got some impressive waste. “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.” ― Margaret Thatcher
If we could only be more like Cuba or Venezuela or China or even the old Soviet Union. But we’re stuck with this inconvenient Constitution and capitalistic system that has prevented all but a very few from rising out of poverty. Where’s that strong, massive central government when you need it to decide how resources should be used and who gets to use them?
As an aside, I’ve often wondered why you associate with slug baits? Are you a gardener?
2slugbaits
Bruce Hall Calm down, you’re not CoRev so don’t act like him. Now, let me set you straight on a few things. First, no one is saying that Medicare for All will be free. That’s a strawman argument. Personally I’m in favor of shoring up Obamacare and then gradually expanding Medicare & Medicaid, but in principle I have no problem with Medicare for All. I don’t know where Rep. Ryan got his “facts”, but the admin overhead rate for Medicare is around 1.5% whereas the average admin overhead cost for private insurance is around 12%. And much of that inefficiency in private health insurance comes from efforts to deny coverage. You’d be hard pressed to find a more inefficient way to deliver health insurance than through private markets.
Since you’re a good shot, then presumably you don’t need a semi-automatic rifle with a 100 round magazine. The 2nd Amendment does not prohibit Congress from outlawing certain kinds of weapons. No one wants to take away your grandpappy’s .410 shotgun. The Founders made lots of bad choices and the 2nd Amendment was just one of many. The flaws in the Constitution are burdens that future generations have to suffer, just as our energy policy choices to subsidize fossil fuels will leave future generations with heavy burdens. If you believe in markets, then you should support either carbon taxes or cap-and-trade arrangements. If you don’t believe in markets, then second best approaches like strict CAFE standards or “green” subsidies will have to do. If you’re an amoral, self-centered pig like Donald Trump, then you don’t care what kind of burden we leave future generations.
California which has the highest real poverty rate in the U.S.
I’ve warned you before about relying upon Forbes magazine, especially old Forbes articles. The Forbes claim is simply wrong. Please check the US Census data. The poverty rate in California is 12.0% of the population and has been trending down from 13.9% in 2015-2016. It’s nowhere near the top. In fact, it’s exactly the same as the national average of 12.0%. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/p60/266/state.xls
Net migration is tricky, so you really need to look at the Census detail to understand what’s going on. Census data shows the reasons for mobility. I don’t think leaving the state because it has too many immigrants is one of those racist reasons. In any event, California currently has a population of 39.6 million, of which 22.1 million were born in California. Another 7.6 million were born in California and moved. That means California has a net inflow migration of 9.9 million.
Your initial comment referred to DACA beneficiaries as though they represented an economic and literacy burden. The average DACA beneficiary almost certainly has a higher income and education level then the typical Trump voter. As to non-DACA low income immigrants, as long as their wage doesn’t exceed the value of the marginal product of their labor both you and I are better off. It’s called consumer surplus. This is an econ blog. Look it up.
If we could only be more like Cuba or Venezuela or China or even the old Soviet Union. But we’re stuck with this inconvenient Constitution and capitalistic system
This kind of nonsense just embarrasses you. Again, you’re not CoRev, so don’t act like him. At least make an effort to present an intelligent argument. That’s the problem with today’s conservative movement. There was a time when you could find intelligent conservative arguments. I didn’t always agree with them, but they weren’t just braindead stupid. But those days are long gone.
‘Ryan said: “There is $50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program.” The statement is correct in that in the past two years, the federal agency that administers Medicare reports that $52 billion and then $48.5 billion in “improper payments” were made — ranging from payments made with bookkeeping errors to fraud. Ryan goes a bit too far in that some of those payments are underpayments and some were for payments in which there wasn’t sufficient documentation to determine whether the payment was improper.’
Ryan is mischaracterizing this issue but hey – he is a right of center politician so what’s new. Of course Bruce Hall repeats whatever lies fit his agenda as he is just too dumb to check reliable sources.
not_really
$50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program.
Kick ’em to the curb, make sure they are in debt and starving, then shoot ’em. Cool! They may be Americans, but they aren’t “real” Americans anyway. I’m with you all the way with that lovely vision, Bruce!
Moses Herzog
Between industrial production, intellectual property, and internet protocol is anyone else getting confused?? Who’s on first??
I see Brucie boy thinks this post is all about Senator Warren’s platform. No it is not but Brucie never got past 1st base in his entire life!
Bruce Hall
Thanks for accepting the fact that I am not a sexual abuser. Oh, wait, that response may be too obtuse for you.
Bruce Hall
2slug,
I don’t know where Rep. Ryan got his “facts”, but the admin overhead rate for Medicare is around 1.5% whereas the average admin overhead cost for private insurance is around 12%. . Perhaps the lack of effective administration is resulting in the waste/fraud/improper payments Rep. Ryan cited. But there certainly is inefficiency and waste in the Medicare system. In the zeal to cut costs, Medicare prevents doctors from performing related procedures the same day. So, my wife gets an examination for kidney stones by the doctor and then must return in a week for him to tell her the results when she could have waited briefly. Now that’s two visits and twice the cost for the system. Okay, I’ll admit it: it’s anecdotal based on personal experience.
“In fiscal year 2010, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)–the agency that administers Medicare and Medicaid–estimated that these programs made a total of over $70 billion in improper payments.” — US GAO. Perhaps this is where Rep. Ryan is getting his information. Might be a bit old, but he’s knocked off $20 billion in his estimates.
The Founders made lots of bad choices and the 2nd Amendment was just one of many. I’ll refer you back to the pbs.org article.
I’ve warned you before about relying upon Forbes magazine, especially old Forbes articles. The Forbes claim is simply wrong. Please check the US Census data. If you read the article, it did use the U.S. Census Bureau data, but then it referenced the U.S. Census Bureau supplemental poverty measurement study.
Net migration is tricky, so you really need to look at the Census detail to understand what’s going on. Census data shows the reasons for mobility. The article cited the Census Bureau statistics as the basis for the claims. Apples – oranges?
Your initial comment referred to DACA beneficiaries as though they represented an economic and literacy burden. The average DACA beneficiary almost certainly has a higher income and education level then the typical Trump voter. . Are you citing Census Bureau statistics? Of course not. That’s simply your bias showing.
And, yes, I’ll admit I got a bit snarky about Cuba et al. But my level of snarkiness pales compared to certain other participants in this forum.
2slugbaits
Bruce Hall Good to know that there’s no waste, fraud or abuse with private insurance companies.
I’m well aware of the 2nd Amendment. I’m also quite familiar with Yale scholar Akhil Reed Amar. In fact, I’ve read his book “America’s Constitution: A Biography” (it deconstructs the Constitution phrase-by-phrase) as well as his book “The Bill of Rights.” And one of my nephews was one of Amar’s law students. Unfortunately, my nephew has gone over to the dark side and writes op-eds for The Federalist Society when he isn’t clerking. My point was that the Founders were simply wrong about a lot of things. The consequences of relying upon bad history and a primitive political science. And the idea that citizens need guns in order to protect liberty didn’t survive Shay’s Rebellion. It was a dumb ass idea then and it’s even dumber today. Just “Red Dawn” fantasies of old men misremembering their long lost youth. I suspect a lot of folks who believe that kind of thing are unfamiliar with the reality of modern weapon systems.
The article on net migration showed absolute numbers as estimated from survey data. Are you surprised that large states tend to have the largest migrations? And the article used mean estimates unadjusted for error terms. Census does provide the error terms around those estimates but your article “forgot” to include those numbers. And the Forbes article came from 2016 and used data that was based on an average of 2013-2015 data. Not exactly current.
As to the DACA program, a recent NBER study found that it had a significant effect on closing the educational achievement gap between legal citizens and those here illegally. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24315
Why would you want to end a program that generates a better educated and more productive workforce? It doesn’t make sense.
2slugbaits
Bruce Hall Since you cited Prof. Akhil Amar approvingly, I thought you might be interested in what he has to say about what constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors.” This is from his book “America’s Constitution: A Biography”, page 200:
In America, by contrast, the head of state could be ousted whenever he committed any “high Crimes [or] Misdemeanors” that warranted his immediate removal. In context, the words “high…Misdemeanors” most sensibly meant high misbehavior or high misconduct, whether or not strictly criminal. Under the Articles of Confederation, the states mutually pledged to extradite those charged with any “high misdemeanor,” and in that setting the phrase apparently meant only indictable crimes. The Constitution used the phrase in a wholly different context, in which adjudication would occur in a political body lacking general criminal jurisdiction or special criminal-law competence. Early drafts in Philadelphia had provided for impeachment in noncriminal cases of “mal-practice or neglect of duty” and more general “corruption.” During the ratification process, leading Federalists hypothesized various noncriminal actions that might rise to the level of high misdemeanors warranting impeachment, such as summoning only friendly senators into special session or “giving false information to the Senate.” In the First Congress, Madison contended that if a president abused his removal powers by “wanton removal of meritorious officers” he would be “impeachable…for such an act of maladministration.” Consistent with these public expositions of the text, House members in the early 1800s impeached a pair of judges for misbehavior on the bench that fell short of criminality. The Senate convicted one (John Pickering) of intoxication and indecency, and acquitted the other (Samuel Chase) of egregious bias and other judicial improprieties.
Keep that thought in mind when (or if) you listen to the impeachment hearings. Remind yourself of how Trump has actively endeavored to fire or otherwise remove competent career civil servants who would not participate in his cover-ups.
Also, today we think of a “misdemeanor” in the criminal context and referring to something less than a felony. That’s not what the word meant in the 17th and 18th centuries, so if you consider yourself an “originalist” then you should look at the origin of the word “misdemeanor.” The word comes from the Latin “minare”, meaning “to drive” which then came down as the French word “mener”, meaning “to lead” or “to drive.” It came into Middle English during the 14th century as “demeanor” and referred to how one presented oneself. The word “misdemeanor” referred to an inappropriate presentation of oneself.
ooe
the economy is in recession. the ISM has been in contraction for 3 months now. the Fed would not have lowered interest rates if the economy were dandy.
P.S. the yield curve also un-inverted in the eve of the 2007-2009 recession.
So aggregate demand growth in the rest of world is weak. Which means we cannot count on a net export recovery.
But Trump and his minions are all gloating that our trade war may have hurt growth abroad as if making the USA less worse than our trading partners is somehow progress. Yes Trump and his minions are really THAT stupid!
Well, probably what is needed is another tax cut for the wealthy. That will stimulate another round of investment at least for awhile that will help turn around this decline in IP (snark).
US industrial production pretty closely follows oil prices and the rig count.
With respect to that, let me quote myself:
“WTI has been creeping up on the absence of specific news. This suggests the pressure might be coming from the trading side, ie, some tightness is appearing in the physical market. As we have stated before, the current situation appears patently unsustainable. At a breakeven of $60, our model suggests another 65 horizontal oil rigs will roll off through Q1. At some point, this will end shale production growth.
Don’t expect the Saudis to save us. They, as most of OPEC, will be more interested in higher prices than higher production volumes.
Given that shales are expected to provide effectively all of net global oil supply growth in 2020, shales will have to be re-started, and pretty soon. This is a market prone to a rapid reversal of sentiment sometime between now and end Q1 2020.”
If you want to receive our twice weekly oil reports, you can sign up on the prienga.com website.
Well, after looking at the proposals by the Democratic Party candidates for POTUS, we will emerge strong and omnipotent by implementing:
• Medicare for all
• Tuition loan forgiveness and free tuition
• Reparations
• American Opportunities Accounts Act
• Tax credits for individuals/families earning $50K/$100K
• Green New Deal (and lots of good, government subsidies to pay for high cost energy)
• Universal child care
• Universal Pre-K
• Gun control
• Support DACA and decriminalize illegal entry into the U.S. (this is a big one that will help agriculture and landscaping by allowing millions more uneducated and low-paid workers into the nation)
I’m sure I missed some great ones. And all come built on a 2% wealth tax for people with over $10 million dollars in assets plus raising the estate tax. WE’RE SAVED!
Bruce Hall: In my book, beats selling the Nation out to the Russians, alienating our NATO allies, bankrupting the country by giving tax breaks to billionaires and corporations, putting kids in cages after separating from parents, deporting individuals who have served in the U.S. military, trying to eliminate birthright citizenship and revoke naturalization for others, etc.
Take it easy on Bruce. This is a tough time for him.
Bruce has got to rationalize in his mind how it’s ok to use money designated by Congress for an ally’s military defense, as a bribe for personal aims to falsely implicate a political opponent in a national presidential election. In the meantime putting at risk a U.S. ally, and put that nation at much higher risk for an invasion by Russia, and further Russian military aggression into Europe. All of this facilitated by his personal lawyer in a shadow government fashion (in essence impersonating a Secretary of State). Meanwhile the real Secretary of State, and others such as Mulvaney and Mike Pence are watching this happen and applauding it as “U.S. government policy”. And all of this as Europe, having political chaos of its own, looks at what donald trump is doing to weaken Ukraine’s military defenses and wondering which European country donald trump is going to throw under the bus next.
https://youtu.be/r6Rc68FXk-E?t=78
And why does donald trump commit this crime along with many others?? Because donald trump knows everyone in America sees him as the shallow fraud he is now—so he has to paint his most probable opponent in the presidential election as a fraud on the same level as himself.
Bruce Hall If Medicare is good enough for you, why isn’t it good enough for other people? Why are you so special?
Green New Deal (and lots of good, government subsidies to pay for high cost energy)
So you would prefer tax subsidies for dirty fossil fuels with marginal social costs exceeding marginal benefits?
Gun control
So you’re such a bad shot that you need a semi-automatic weapon with a 100 round drum magazine?
allowing millions more uneducated and low-paid workers into the nation
Are you claiming that the wages for those low-paid workers exceed the value of their marginal product of labor? As to “uneducated”, that’s rich coming from Trump voters.
2slug
I’m fine with MFA… we have it for people who paid into the system for decades and everyone is eligible when they’ve paid their dues. Now we are to just give it away? Okay. You might remember that even after paying into the system for decades, you still get to pay into it monthly. It’s not free. And you have to love the ineptitude of the SSA in administering Medicare.
At a town hall in New Hampshire, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, one of the many Democrats running for president in 2020, was asked how he would stop the federal government from wasting taxpayer money.
“This has got to be a major initiative for Democrats; we don’t talk enough about waste in the government,” Ryan replied. “If you look at the Medicare program, for example, there is $50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program. That’s a billion dollars a week.”
Oh, you’re thinking about the free stuff Medicaid! Got it. No? I guess you’re not really thinking at all.
I’m fine with GND… we have all the clean energy we want for free. Oh, wait. We don’t. We actually have to have fossil fuels keeping the grid going because the “alternatives” really aren’t. And those $7,000 tax credits are real money so someone can feel “woke” about the vehicles they buy. And you seem to conveniently ignore the the vast government subsidies for dirty “green” power (where do all those non-recyclable solar panels and wind turbines go when they die?) . Of course, GNDers don’t like nuclear power either, so I guess we go with pedal power. But I’d take natural gas or current generation nuclear power before tilting at windmills or poisonous solar panels. Meanwhile, China gets a pass on coal power plants.
Guns. Actually, I’m a pretty good shot and I have the same Constitutional right to my weapons as you have to your free speech. You can have my guns if I can take away your free speech. You might actually consider why the Bill of Rights has the 2nd Amendment… this history behind the words. Do some reading. Here’s a hint: http://www.pbs.org/tpt/constitution-usa-peter-sagal/rights/first-and-second-amendments/ I know, I know. What does a Yale law professor know about the Bill of Rights?
Now we get to the real subsidies… the government assistance for all of those low-paid, unskilled laborers you long to have bringing their culture to your neighborhood. Yeah, that’s worked well for California which has the highest real poverty rate in the U.S. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2016/09/28/why-does-california-have-the-nations-highest-poverty-rate/#74c2f24512d9 . But I guess those rich liberals need someone to keep their gardens and kitchens going. Besides, experience has shown that the mild climate in California can allow the poor to live comfortably on the sidewalks or under expressway overpasses.
You might ask yourself why such liberal bastions as California, Illinois, and New York have net outbound migration if things are so wonderful under policies they want to implement nationally. https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-10-states-people-are-moving-out-of-us-2019-5
Yeah, a few trillion here and a few trillion there and pretty soon you’ve got some impressive waste. “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.” ― Margaret Thatcher
If we could only be more like Cuba or Venezuela or China or even the old Soviet Union. But we’re stuck with this inconvenient Constitution and capitalistic system that has prevented all but a very few from rising out of poverty. Where’s that strong, massive central government when you need it to decide how resources should be used and who gets to use them?
As an aside, I’ve often wondered why you associate with slug baits? Are you a gardener?
Bruce Hall Calm down, you’re not CoRev so don’t act like him. Now, let me set you straight on a few things. First, no one is saying that Medicare for All will be free. That’s a strawman argument. Personally I’m in favor of shoring up Obamacare and then gradually expanding Medicare & Medicaid, but in principle I have no problem with Medicare for All. I don’t know where Rep. Ryan got his “facts”, but the admin overhead rate for Medicare is around 1.5% whereas the average admin overhead cost for private insurance is around 12%. And much of that inefficiency in private health insurance comes from efforts to deny coverage. You’d be hard pressed to find a more inefficient way to deliver health insurance than through private markets.
Since you’re a good shot, then presumably you don’t need a semi-automatic rifle with a 100 round magazine. The 2nd Amendment does not prohibit Congress from outlawing certain kinds of weapons. No one wants to take away your grandpappy’s .410 shotgun. The Founders made lots of bad choices and the 2nd Amendment was just one of many. The flaws in the Constitution are burdens that future generations have to suffer, just as our energy policy choices to subsidize fossil fuels will leave future generations with heavy burdens. If you believe in markets, then you should support either carbon taxes or cap-and-trade arrangements. If you don’t believe in markets, then second best approaches like strict CAFE standards or “green” subsidies will have to do. If you’re an amoral, self-centered pig like Donald Trump, then you don’t care what kind of burden we leave future generations.
California which has the highest real poverty rate in the U.S.
I’ve warned you before about relying upon Forbes magazine, especially old Forbes articles. The Forbes claim is simply wrong. Please check the US Census data. The poverty rate in California is 12.0% of the population and has been trending down from 13.9% in 2015-2016. It’s nowhere near the top. In fact, it’s exactly the same as the national average of 12.0%.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/p60/266/state.xls
Net migration is tricky, so you really need to look at the Census detail to understand what’s going on. Census data shows the reasons for mobility. I don’t think leaving the state because it has too many immigrants is one of those racist reasons. In any event, California currently has a population of 39.6 million, of which 22.1 million were born in California. Another 7.6 million were born in California and moved. That means California has a net inflow migration of 9.9 million.
Your initial comment referred to DACA beneficiaries as though they represented an economic and literacy burden. The average DACA beneficiary almost certainly has a higher income and education level then the typical Trump voter. As to non-DACA low income immigrants, as long as their wage doesn’t exceed the value of the marginal product of their labor both you and I are better off. It’s called consumer surplus. This is an econ blog. Look it up.
If we could only be more like Cuba or Venezuela or China or even the old Soviet Union. But we’re stuck with this inconvenient Constitution and capitalistic system
This kind of nonsense just embarrasses you. Again, you’re not CoRev, so don’t act like him. At least make an effort to present an intelligent argument. That’s the problem with today’s conservative movement. There was a time when you could find intelligent conservative arguments. I didn’t always agree with them, but they weren’t just braindead stupid. But those days are long gone.
As usual Bruce Hall’s research skills suck:
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2019/apr/19/tim-ryan/50-billion-medicare-waste-yes-s-how-much-improper-/
‘Ryan said: “There is $50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program.” The statement is correct in that in the past two years, the federal agency that administers Medicare reports that $52 billion and then $48.5 billion in “improper payments” were made — ranging from payments made with bookkeeping errors to fraud. Ryan goes a bit too far in that some of those payments are underpayments and some were for payments in which there wasn’t sufficient documentation to determine whether the payment was improper.’
Ryan is mischaracterizing this issue but hey – he is a right of center politician so what’s new. Of course Bruce Hall repeats whatever lies fit his agenda as he is just too dumb to check reliable sources.
$50 billion a year wasted in the Medicare program.
From the department of made-up facts….
Meanwhile: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pentagon-audit/pentagon-fails-its-first-ever-audit-official-says-idUSKCN1NK2MC
Kick ’em to the curb, make sure they are in debt and starving, then shoot ’em. Cool! They may be Americans, but they aren’t “real” Americans anyway. I’m with you all the way with that lovely vision, Bruce!
Between industrial production, intellectual property, and internet protocol is anyone else getting confused?? Who’s on first??
Moses,
You just scratched the surface, https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/IP
I see Brucie boy thinks this post is all about Senator Warren’s platform. No it is not but Brucie never got past 1st base in his entire life!
Thanks for accepting the fact that I am not a sexual abuser. Oh, wait, that response may be too obtuse for you.
2slug,
I don’t know where Rep. Ryan got his “facts”, but the admin overhead rate for Medicare is around 1.5% whereas the average admin overhead cost for private insurance is around 12%. . Perhaps the lack of effective administration is resulting in the waste/fraud/improper payments Rep. Ryan cited. But there certainly is inefficiency and waste in the Medicare system. In the zeal to cut costs, Medicare prevents doctors from performing related procedures the same day. So, my wife gets an examination for kidney stones by the doctor and then must return in a week for him to tell her the results when she could have waited briefly. Now that’s two visits and twice the cost for the system. Okay, I’ll admit it: it’s anecdotal based on personal experience.
“In fiscal year 2010, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)–the agency that administers Medicare and Medicaid–estimated that these programs made a total of over $70 billion in improper payments.” — US GAO. Perhaps this is where Rep. Ryan is getting his information. Might be a bit old, but he’s knocked off $20 billion in his estimates.
The Founders made lots of bad choices and the 2nd Amendment was just one of many. I’ll refer you back to the pbs.org article.
I’ve warned you before about relying upon Forbes magazine, especially old Forbes articles. The Forbes claim is simply wrong. Please check the US Census data. If you read the article, it did use the U.S. Census Bureau data, but then it referenced the U.S. Census Bureau supplemental poverty measurement study.
Net migration is tricky, so you really need to look at the Census detail to understand what’s going on. Census data shows the reasons for mobility. The article cited the Census Bureau statistics as the basis for the claims. Apples – oranges?
Your initial comment referred to DACA beneficiaries as though they represented an economic and literacy burden. The average DACA beneficiary almost certainly has a higher income and education level then the typical Trump voter. . Are you citing Census Bureau statistics? Of course not. That’s simply your bias showing.
And, yes, I’ll admit I got a bit snarky about Cuba et al. But my level of snarkiness pales compared to certain other participants in this forum.
Bruce Hall Good to know that there’s no waste, fraud or abuse with private insurance companies.
I’m well aware of the 2nd Amendment. I’m also quite familiar with Yale scholar Akhil Reed Amar. In fact, I’ve read his book “America’s Constitution: A Biography” (it deconstructs the Constitution phrase-by-phrase) as well as his book “The Bill of Rights.” And one of my nephews was one of Amar’s law students. Unfortunately, my nephew has gone over to the dark side and writes op-eds for The Federalist Society when he isn’t clerking. My point was that the Founders were simply wrong about a lot of things. The consequences of relying upon bad history and a primitive political science. And the idea that citizens need guns in order to protect liberty didn’t survive Shay’s Rebellion. It was a dumb ass idea then and it’s even dumber today. Just “Red Dawn” fantasies of old men misremembering their long lost youth. I suspect a lot of folks who believe that kind of thing are unfamiliar with the reality of modern weapon systems.
The article on net migration showed absolute numbers as estimated from survey data. Are you surprised that large states tend to have the largest migrations? And the article used mean estimates unadjusted for error terms. Census does provide the error terms around those estimates but your article “forgot” to include those numbers. And the Forbes article came from 2016 and used data that was based on an average of 2013-2015 data. Not exactly current.
As to the DACA program, a recent NBER study found that it had a significant effect on closing the educational achievement gap between legal citizens and those here illegally.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w24315
Why would you want to end a program that generates a better educated and more productive workforce? It doesn’t make sense.
Bruce Hall Since you cited Prof. Akhil Amar approvingly, I thought you might be interested in what he has to say about what constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors.” This is from his book “America’s Constitution: A Biography”, page 200:
In America, by contrast, the head of state could be ousted whenever he committed any “high Crimes [or] Misdemeanors” that warranted his immediate removal. In context, the words “high…Misdemeanors” most sensibly meant high misbehavior or high misconduct, whether or not strictly criminal. Under the Articles of Confederation, the states mutually pledged to extradite those charged with any “high misdemeanor,” and in that setting the phrase apparently meant only indictable crimes. The Constitution used the phrase in a wholly different context, in which adjudication would occur in a political body lacking general criminal jurisdiction or special criminal-law competence. Early drafts in Philadelphia had provided for impeachment in noncriminal cases of “mal-practice or neglect of duty” and more general “corruption.” During the ratification process, leading Federalists hypothesized various noncriminal actions that might rise to the level of high misdemeanors warranting impeachment, such as summoning only friendly senators into special session or “giving false information to the Senate.” In the First Congress, Madison contended that if a president abused his removal powers by “wanton removal of meritorious officers” he would be “impeachable…for such an act of maladministration.” Consistent with these public expositions of the text, House members in the early 1800s impeached a pair of judges for misbehavior on the bench that fell short of criminality. The Senate convicted one (John Pickering) of intoxication and indecency, and acquitted the other (Samuel Chase) of egregious bias and other judicial improprieties.
Keep that thought in mind when (or if) you listen to the impeachment hearings. Remind yourself of how Trump has actively endeavored to fire or otherwise remove competent career civil servants who would not participate in his cover-ups.
Also, today we think of a “misdemeanor” in the criminal context and referring to something less than a felony. That’s not what the word meant in the 17th and 18th centuries, so if you consider yourself an “originalist” then you should look at the origin of the word “misdemeanor.” The word comes from the Latin “minare”, meaning “to drive” which then came down as the French word “mener”, meaning “to lead” or “to drive.” It came into Middle English during the 14th century as “demeanor” and referred to how one presented oneself. The word “misdemeanor” referred to an inappropriate presentation of oneself.
the economy is in recession. the ISM has been in contraction for 3 months now. the Fed would not have lowered interest rates if the economy were dandy.
P.S. the yield curve also un-inverted in the eve of the 2007-2009 recession.