Private nonfarm employment: BLS vs. ADP

The trajectories of the BLS vs. ADP private nonfarm employment series differ, even though for much of the year, the ADP series was above that of BLS.

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (brown), and CES March preliminary benchmark revision (dark blue triangle), all on log scale. Light green shading denotes data to be benchmark revised. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

The divergence in changes is even more marked if one zooms in on 2019.

Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (brown). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Keep in mind the 90% confidence interval for private NFP sampling error is about +/- 100K.

What can the latest divergence tell us? From Elad Pashtan, “The ADP Employment Report: Pay Attention to Large Surprises,” Goldman Sachs Economic Research, September 2016.

In sum, our findings suggest that the ADP employment report has only limited value in forecasting the CES, as much of its marginal information content appears to come from other publicly available data such as jobless claims that are incorporated by ADP into their official figures. However, large ADP forecast errors have more often than not been followed by CES forecast errors in the same direction, suggesting that forecasters might be able to improve their performance by partially adjusting their payroll expectations when such a large ADP surprise occurs.

Bloomberg consensus on the ADP release was for 140K, vs. reported 67K, so a surprise on the downside; for the BLS release, it was 175K vs. reported 254K, so the surprises went in opposite directions this time.

The 2019M11 figures are actually quite an outlier (in growth rates, not surprises). This is shown in a scatterplot over the 2013-19 period (a revamp of the ADP series was undertaken in 2012).

Figure 3: Log differences in BLS series against ADP series (blue circle), and regression line (red). Source: ADP, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

It’s important to note that the ADP series is a composite. Once again from GS:

To produce their final estimate of payroll growth, ADP uses not only their raw proprietary data but also lagged information from the official BLS report and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADSBCI), a high frequency indicator that blends information from seven economic releases, including initial jobless claims and industrial production, among others.

Some recent work by Cajner et al. (2019) suggests ADP microdata can provide additional information that can be used to reduce the measurement error. This point is illustrated in this graph of different series and vintages of series around the last recession, from the paper.

Note that the series they examine — they dub it ADP-FRB — differs in nature substantially from the ADP series discussed above. 

66 thoughts on “Private nonfarm employment: BLS vs. ADP

  1. pgl

    Back on December 5 under your last BLS v. ADP post, we saw this comment:

    December 5, 2019 at 1:10 pm
    This Friday will be a weird one. The GM workers on strike in October are back on the job and that’ll inflate the manufacturing NFP figures in the BLS Establishment data.”

    Neil was ahead of the news on this. Not sure how the end of the GM workers strike was captured by the ADP figures.

    It is interesting to note that the latest BLS household survey showed a much lower increase in employment than what we say in the payroll survey.

      1. pgl

        I give little weight to the household survey employment figures as well. Of course we know how Lawrence Kudlow does this.

        For months like this one where the payroll survey gives the highest reported increase, it is the most reliable.

        But if the household survey employment figure is higher than the payroll survey figure next month, count on Larry saying it is the most reliable!

      2. spencer

        The household survey tends to lead the payroll trend, especially at major cyclical turning points.

        Look at the year over year percent change of the two series. You should also note how the growth of the two series is very similar.

        I suspect the household data captures small firms more rapid reaction to shocks while large firms have to wait for news and policy to travel up and down the various management levels.

        Both are subject to individual months data being very volatile.

    1. 2slugbaits

      As to the establishment survey, my understanding is that the end of the GM strike accounted for about 40,000 of the 266,000 jobs. No idea how ADP would handle that since those workers weren’t actually separated from their employer.

      FWIW, just playing around with the BLS and ADP data in Menzie’s scatterplot. It turns out that the 2019M11 data point is an outlier per the Bonferroni outlier test. Visually it seemed obvious, but it’s always nice to back things up with a more formal test.

  2. Not Trampis

    Why is that. That is how most countries calculate their employment and unemployment rates. Is this another Yank idiosyncrasy we have to put up with?

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Not Trampis: You only need to sample a relatively small number of establishments to cover a lot of employment. You need to sample a very large number of households to cover a lot of employed. I suspect this is true in other countries as well.

      1. Not Trampis

        I would like to know of other countries that have an establishment survey.

        We do not have one. This is not a criticism by the way

  3. Moses Herzog

    I wonder how much blacks’ and minorities’ incarceration rates for minor crimes such as marijuana usage or sitting in jail for eternity for court processing fees and charges is related to LFPR?? I guess if you’re Copmala Harris and what we might say engaged in “intensive social activities” with the local married mayor of your city, such figures just aren’t that important to you. Copmala unable to focus because of PTSD from riding the public school bus to the predominantly white school in Thousand Oaks?? We’ll never know will we?? Must be Mikey Bloomberg’s fault.
    Dated numbers here, but good numbers to get a broad view of things—–>>

  4. Moses Herzog

    Thought this was interesting and maybe others of Menzie’s regular readers might enjoy it. One thing it highlights is how combining different tabulations on numbers that are consistently out of line or consistently revised can be so helpful. We often (and I include myself in this error in notion) falsely make these numbers into “binary” choices, and they don’t have to be—often methods can be found to combine the numbers or combine estimates of numbers.

  5. Moses Herzog

    I got a slight kick out of this and thought I would share it for all the “econophiles” out there. It’s Jean Pisani-Ferry. Who is a well-respected economist that you rarely see on TV (or at least I haven’t anyway). Some economists chase after TV, I’ll be diplomatic for once and avoid going down the list, others shy away from media attention. I think Pisani-Ferry falls into the latter category, which is why I thought it was fun to see him on the TV. His first appearance in the video is around the 1:28 time mark:

    1. baffling

      well that article certainly has nothing incriminating in it. not quite sure why you have such hatred for mayor pete. i have argued from early on he is one of the brighter stars in the democratic party, but he lacks government experience for this term. but with the current crop of democratic candidates disappointing flops, mayor pete continues to attract attention. he very well still could pull an obama. he has the smarts, and the rest of the field lacks any of the “it” factor needed to win a general election. right now the race is between 2 old retired guys, a female lawyer and mayor pete. the billionaire flirting with a run is too old with too much baggage as well. overall i am quite disappointed with the lineup the democrats have put up against trump, who is easily beatable with a reasonable centrist candidate. there are a bunch of trump voters craving for an alternative, if given a reasonable option.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ baffling
        Dude, the more you comment, the more I feel ingratiated by your defenses of Barkley Junior. The only commenter on this blog to defend him on that particular issue that I am aware of BTW. You defend “Mayor Pete” (a moniker which makes me sardonically smile like I am typing “King George”) then attack the guy who dared to perform his core duties as Chairman of the Fed. “Mayor Pete”…….. Dude you should be typecast for a part in a Star Wars film where you play a sentry who speaks in worshipful tones about “Senator Palpatine”. Do you have any idea the ethical stature Paul Volcker had, and the amount of trust he had in very weighty affairs??

        Are you aware of the amount of trust it took for Jews to trust a man raised Lutheran, with German grandparents to handle and oversee an investigation that probably ranks as one of the most important and emotionally sensitive in all of their long and highly admired history?? And then you run to defend a man who was part of McKinsey and “can’t openly discuss” what he did while he was there?? Dude you are a laugh riot.

        1. baffling

          dude, my comments were with respect to his war on inflation and the resulting interest rates many endured. i did not know about his swiss bank investigations. your links are informative and welcomed. but they do not change my mind on his war on inflation. in my view, and many others, it was excessive.
          it’s too bad you find mayor pete guilty by association with McKinsey. i am not a fan of the firm, but nevertheless, its not like he spent a lifetime building up the firm and its behavior. it was a first job out of college, and i imagine high paying at that. dude, he worked for three years and then quit. while i would be hesitant to work for them now, knowing their reputation, i almost certainly would have taken a high paying offer from them straight out of school as well. as for “openly discussing” the information, perhaps you can take the risk of breaking a nondisclosure? i have signed them myself. i do not like them, and would like to make them illegal. but until that happens, McKinsey, trump and other businesses can continue to control the narrative through nondisclosures. not sure how it is mayor pete’s fault he has to follow through on the agreement? its a false argument to blame him. now go away dude. All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I’m fine.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Oh baffling, I am baffled that Moses is linking you to me as a special defender of mine. I think I have said very little about either Buttigieg or Volcker here recently, so I have no idea what is in Moses’s mind on this. But that will not be the first time. Maybe you are my only defender on “this particular issue,” whichever one it is, but I have seenquite a few people agree with me over Moses on quite a few issues. I am sorry somehow you have been linked to awful me on some mysterious “particular issue.” May you be forgiven in the eyes of the Lord for this grievous fall from grace.

        2. pgl

          OK – Switzerland does well by coddling to all sorts of abusive including transfer pricing manipulation. I raise this as the usually excellent Spencer is over at Econospeak trying to limit transfer pricing abuse to the relationship between Canada and the US. Yes it is about as bad as arguing that Trump was trying to eliminate corruption in Ukraine!

          1. pgl

            “I’m just saying the US–Canada transfer pricing is more of s problem than with other countries.”

            Did you read what I wrote in the comments section over at Econospeak. I seriously doubt that multinationals do a lot of profit shifting between these two particular nations. Yes, there is some debates between the IRS and the CRA but given the fact that both nations have similarly high corporate profit tax rates, the incentives for profit shifting are just not there.

      2. pgl

        I’ve done consulting work for entities that might put me on the Bernie Boy’s enemies list. Look – my role was nothing more than consulting and I always told my client the truth even if they did not like the message. So I guess in some circles I deserved to be drawn and quartered. Then again I would never work for the McKenzie crew.

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ pgl
          I do a decent amount of reading (not as much as I should, but a decent amount). Your first sentence ends with a phrase I have NEVER seen in any print or web-based media. I have seen those words used literally scores of times in relation to Hillary.

    2. pgl

      “Secrecy surrounds much of the work of McKinsey, seen by many as the gold standard in management consulting.”

      Look – I turned down offers from McKinsey but I have signed my fair share of non-disclosure agreements. NDAs do not mean that one lied for one’s shady client. Just the opposite. This is a sad little smear.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ pgl
        With all due respect—- Saying that one hasn’t lied about their former employer when they agreed not to discuss their former employer is not much of a “defense”. If I committed heinous crimes or immoral acts in someone’s employment, then refused to discuss, your response would be “Well, what’s the issue?? He never lied about it.” Wow, I wanna try that one out in a courtroom. Can you be on my jury please??

        If you think signing NDAs is “a badge of honor” I’m happy for you, but my first inclination is to tell you “Don’t pull ‘a Barkley’ “—-it has nothing to do with YOU—it is about a man running for U.S. President. You’re using the argumentative equivalent of CoRev saying “They legally can’t look at my taxes. donald trump doesn’t want his taxes exposed either, So should I be drawn and quartered??” That argument doesn’t stand when you are running for President of the United States Sorry if that offends your NDA sensitivities.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            For the record, although I prefer Warren as a candidate over Buttigieg, I am just as insistent she shows her prior work. I think surely you have already picked up that would be my sentiment on the issue. She’s probably in my top 4 group of people I would vote for, that could be a snag for her when I go to cast my ballot.

            I could also share that 2 women are in my top 4 group of candidates, but that would take away all the fun you and Barkley Junior have labeling me a misogynist when you have no logical leg to stand on in some of your arguments, so I’ll just leave you two to your natural pursuits.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Wow, pgl, we need to apologize for ever suggesting that Moses has a problem with women (for the record, Mose, I do not believe I have ever called you “misogynistic,” at least not using that word specifically). Here he is with supposedly two women in his top 4 for the Dems, one of whom is definitely Bernie (not sure who the other male is).

            So one is Warren. Well, I am not surprised. Back when he was fervently and repeatedly denouncing Warren for her “Pocahontas problem,” I pointed out that her views were the closest to his beloved Bernie’s of any other candidate, and that I could easily see him coming to view her more favorably. Maybe like all those Native American chieftains he actually accepted her final apology to them about her conduct in all that, although he has yet to actually say that. But given he is now at least somewhat favorable to her, he is at least overlooking what he long thought was so very very important and awful.

            Presumably the other woman is Tulsi Gabbard, the notoriously homophobic liar. What is amazing is that I have yet to see him describe her as “hot,” although maybe he has and I just missed it. Because generally when he likes a woman he tells us how “hot” she is, as with Gita Gopinath (presumably wishing he could take them to the prom), although I must grant he has said laudatory things about Lael Brainard without calling her “hot,” but while referring to her instead as “Miss,” more than once I believe, including at least once after it was pointed out to him that this was highly inappropriate in her case as an older married woman in a powerful position with a PhD. But, hey, he does want us to know he is not a “misogynist,” which I am sure the world’s women will be glad to learn.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Oh no, pgl, you are being accused of almost about to “pull a Barkley”!!!! How awful. At least you are probably not guilty of defending me on the mysterious “particular issue” that sad baffling has been accused of by Moses. Be grateful for small blessings and be very very caredul. Uncle Moses is watching very very closely.

          1. pgl

            I guess I have not followed your debate with Uncle Moses carefully enough to see the connection between simply pointing out that business consultants have to sign NDAs all the time (they do and often for very reasonable reasons) and “pull a Barkley”.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Well, pgl, just as I am unclear which “particular issue” it is that MH has baffling linked to me with (there have been so many where our friend has claimed that I have been wildly wrong about), likewise I frankly also do not know what he means by “pull a Barkley” either, shame on me.

            Of course it is remotely possible this does not refer to me. It might be Charles Barkley, a lot more famous than I am and who has been accused of “pulling” some not so pleasant things recently.

            Indeed, “Barkley” is my middle name and was originally a family last name. Thus in 1832 in St. Michael’s Episcopal Church in Charleston, SC a great great grandfather of mine, John Rosser, later mayoro of Chatham, SC, married Maria Louisa Barkley, daughter of James Barkley, then a member of the SC legislature. Their oldest son, James Barkley Rosser, was a great grandfather of mine and Adjutant of the Crescent Regiment in the Civil War in Nrew Orleans (there is or was a James Barkley Rosser IV running around somewhere, although I have never met him, while my late father met his late father).

            So I am related to a bunch of Barkleys, possibly even including people who owned an ancestor of Charles Barkley. One of those Barkleys who was supposedly a distant cousin was the late Alben W. Barkley, Truman’s vice president in his full term.

            So, pgl, maybe when Mose says you might “pull a Barkley,” it means you will become vice president.

  6. ooe

    Some one has to find another line of work. the ISM manufacturing survey has indicated the industrial sector has shed jobs since beginning of the fall. However, the BLS numbers do not match those surveys. Seems to be that the there will negative revisions next year.

    Please note that 25 % of the job creation for 2018 disappeared in the BLS benchmarking revision.

    you can surmise that there will be negative revisions next year since 2019 ‘s growth was less than 2018 in terms of GPD .
    Unless, productivity was taken a nose dive.

  7. The Rage

    November’s NFP have a tendency to be rawkus and this year is no exception with striking workers and census workers added in. It beyond that was a touch under 200000. December is usually the opposite. Soft and November downwardly trimmed. I still remember 2014….it’s all blimps.

    1. pgl

      “November’s NFP have a tendency to be rawkus and this year is no exception with striking workers and census workers added in. It beyond that was a touch under 200000.”

      It is true that the striking workers came back to work but that is nowhere near 200 thousand. As far as census workers, we have been there before and once again you are lying.

      BLS says census worker employment grew by a mere 2 thousand in November. Come on Rage – check the data next time. And stop LYING.

    2. pgl

      I’m sorry. BLS noted Census worker employment FELL by 4000 in November while the rest of the Federal government added a mere 2000 workers. Which only shows just how pathetically dishonest the latest from THE RAGE really is.

      1. The Rage

        Incorrect. That isn’t what the BLS said nor is the Census hiring mentioned in that part. Your being dishonest.

  8. pgl

    Remember how Lev Parnas recalls a phone call with Devon Nunes but Nunes cannot recall? This gets interesting:

    “House Judiciary Ranking Republican Devin Nunes came up with an alibi to explain why his phone records show him holding multiple phone calls with Rudy Giuliani’s indicted associate, Lev Parnas. In an interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo, Nunes called it “sickening” for Committee Chairman Adam Schiff to release his phone records in the report on President Donald Trump’s impeachable conduct.”

    Wait Nunes went onto Faux News and interviewed with Bartiromo? Oh brother. One can only imagine the lies she allowed this clown to get away with!

    “I got a call from a number that was Parnas’ wife,” Nunes answered. “I remember talking to someone, and I did what I always do which is that if you don’t know who they are, you put them to staff, and you let staff work with that person.”

    WTF? Now Svetlana Parnas is kind of hot. Is Nunes telling us he is having an affair with this woman? Yea I get that Lev is fat and ugly but no woman on the planet would sleep with someone as dumb as Devon Nunes. [edited MDC]

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ pgl
      I believe some of this Nunes-Parnas stuff is supposed to be addressed in Congressional testimony this week. Maybe tomorrow and if not tomorrow by Wednesday. How awkward is that going to be with Nunes sitting there I wonder. I’m trying to think of the appropriate analogy here. Menzie is pretty well-versed on politics, maybe he can help me think of the congruent example here. Wouldn’t this be like a “go-between” for G Gordon Liddy, E. Howard Hunt, “the Plumbers” and Richard Nixon being head of the committee overseeing the Watergate impeachment?? When have we ever had a situation like this before??

      I’m also hoping they’ll cover Giuliani’s multiple phone calls to the OMB, which strike me as a big red flag that donald trump was directing all this, or why would OMB care what Giuliani says unless it’s “an open secret” donald trump is initiating and prodding it?? Wouldn’t you just hang-up the phone when he identifies himself?? How does the OMB care what the President’s personal lawyer thinks?? Giuliani wasn’t even a “White House counsel”.

      1. Willie

        This too shall pass. We survived Nixon. We survived Joe McCarthy. We have survived the Civil War and more than 100 years of residual racism. We are seeing the terminal lucidity of a reactionary generation as it dies off. It’s doing damage, yes. But, it’s not fatal. There will be plenty of repair work for the next few administrations and Congresses to do, though.

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ Willie
          Every strand and fiber of my being wants to believe you. My brain tells me the pragmatic realities are otherwise.

          You DO realize that Richard Nixon never spent one day in prison, yes?? And what that implies about our system ALREADY??? Had we seen the same happen in China, would we not call that out—and think that something more punitive be done to the leader who behaved in such a way?? If I am going to “call it out” on China, then I am going to “call it out” on America—-it is deeply corrupt and wrong Nixon never went to prison. Nixon was a piece of s*** bastard. PERIOD. And I am sorry to the blog host and respected professor that I cannot sanitize that description any better. I WISH I could.

          1. Willie

            Of course Nixon didn’t spend any time in prison. Trump won’t either. He will be a loud mouthed, dishonest PITA for as long as he lives. His progeny seem to be cut from a similar cloth, if maybe not quite as loud or as shrill. Nunes will be the Joe McCarthy of our time, and he may end up in prison for some of the things he appears to be up to. But I doubt it. That doesn’t mean they all get away with it completely. They will indeed be disgraced, and the policies they promote now will end up disgraced with them.

            I’m a pathological optimist, to go along with being a strictly outhouse economist. This is an ugly time, but we have been through worse as a nation, and we have done worse things to various members of our society in the past. The xenophobia and closed mindedness will pass. When those things pass, the nation will collectively scratch its head and wonder what it was thinking.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Now now, Moses. You have missed the really important point here. “Miss” Parnas is apparently “hot.” Maybe you will get lucky and she will call you up and you can take her to the prom.

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ Barkley Junior
          I was under the strong impression Parnas was male, but you always manage to “educate” me somehow Junior.

          Are you telling me you think Parnas gender is “skewed”??

        2. Moses Herzog

          @ Barkley Junior
          I think I finally figured out why you thought Nunes was talking to Parnas’ wife. Because your own personal situation you think it’s common for men to phone up their way older colleagues’/associates’ wives to see if they haven’t fallen and injured themselves in the shower in any 24-48 hour period. You probably also think Nunes was phoning Giuliani’s wife in Ukraine to check on his well-being?? No, no, Barkley, this isn’t how these phone calls went. Don’t worry Barkley, everyone on this blog knows your situation and we’re going to all pull together to guide you through this large Ukraine nexus. No worries.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            Reread what pgl posted above, whish is also in the news. Nunes is claiming that the phone call in the records between him and Parnas (actually there were several, I believe) was actually one in which Mrs. Parnas was the one on the other end of the line, not Mr. Parnas. Nunes has claimed that when he supposedly got this call (or calls) from Mrs. Parnas, he turned them over to his staff.

            It was pgl who suggested that she was “hot,” so I made a joke of it. Instead, you completely misread everything here and now have made a complete fool of yourself and are telling yet another lie about me. You owe me yet another apology, but like your role model, Donald J. Trump, you never apologized for anything.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Oh, and btw, Moses. If you do not apologize for this misrepresentation, I might “pull a Barkley,” and this might lead to either The End Of The Known Universe or maybe just me becoming vice president, and I think you would not like either of those to happen, especially the latter, :-).

  9. Moses Herzog

    I haven’t gotten around to it yet, but the BIS report looks like it’s very worth reading. My eyes didn’t catch it if it’s linked in the Bloomberg article, but you can find the BIS report pretty easy with a Google search:

    Strangely, Jamie Dimon is the only one in the article that thinks it’s related to minimum capital requirements. Maybe Dimon can sponsor a bank regulations symposium in Upper Virginia.

    Here’s what I’m wondering: If you have a drastic increase in “sponsored repos” inside a a single year’s time, or for that matter 5 years time, and you have banks extending themselves this way to leveraged investors in the hedge funds market, why is the Federal Reserve (i.e. the American taxpayer) being asked to cover large banks’ risks??
    Wouldn’t the proper actions be to find a way to cap or limit the amount of “sponsored repos” instead of trying to convince easily duped idiots in Virginia that it’s because of minimum capital requirements that “sponsored repos” are sucking the air out of the banks’ overnight lending market??

    I guess the short answer to that question is, no professors in Upper Virginia or other institutions of higher learning can get a TBTF bank endowed chair or a nice job at the Federal Reserve from singing that tune, can they??

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Not surprising that the sponsored repo market has expanded in the face of the Fed balance sheet drawdown banging into higher capital requirements for the largest banks, especially when ends of quarters roll around.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        I must apologize to one and all for not noting the following that appeared in the BIS report.

        “The most important factor in destabilizing the repo market in September was that bank capital requirements remain at too lo level. What is needed from us here in Basel is a new set of negotiations to bring about a Basel IV Accords that further raise bank capital requirements so that wese can avoid such instabilities in the future. We must especially thank Econbrowser commenter Moses Herzog for bringing this fundamental point to our attention.”

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ Barkley Rosser
          I was already aware of your strong ability to make up text, and your weak ability to read long reports or long papers. I think page 14 of the BIS report on repos is what you’re looking for. I know some PhD holders might be used to RAs doing this type work for them, so I’m going to save you that “arduous” effort here. From Fernando Avalos, Torsten Ehlers and Egemen Eren:
          “Shifts in repo borrowing and lending by non-bank participants may have also played a role in the repo rate spike. Market commentary suggests that, in preceding quarters, leveraged players (eg hedge funds) were increasing their demand for Treasury repos to fund arbitrage trades between cash bonds and derivatives. Since 2017, MMFs have been lending to a broader range of repo counterparties, including hedge funds, potentially obtaining higher returns. These transactions are cleared by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), with a dealer sponsor (usually a bank or broker-dealer) taking on the credit risk. The resulting remarkable rise in FICC-cleared repos indirectly connected these players. During September, however, quantities dropped and rates rose, suggesting a reluctance, also on the part of MMFs, to lend into these markets (Graph A.2, right-hand panel). Market intelligence suggests MMFs were concerned by potential large redemptions given strong prior inflows. Counterparty exposure limits may have contributed to the drop in quantities, as these repos now account for almost 20% of the total provided by MMFs.”

          Here is a small snippet from the Bloomberg article by Tracy Alloway and friends (the 2nd link in my above comment):
          “Money-market cash invested in sponsored repo reached around $170 billion at the end of September, according to Office of Financial Research data. While that’s down from a peak of more than $204 billion in July, that’s substantially above the $5 billion level it was at in June 2017. With market participants digesting the lessons of September’s ructions, there’s a possibility that this more recent pullback in sponsored repo usage could continue. According to Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall, the September turmoil taught market participants that there was a complacency about leveraged investors’ ability to carry ‘ever-growing volumes of Treasury positions with very short-term financing.’ On the flipside, the amount of repo financing provided by dealers for 30 days or longer climbed early last month to a record $549 billion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and it remains relatively elevated.”

          I did think about just making up something you said and putting it in paragraph form, but I thought as someone with a PhD you might think that a rather shallow form of argument. So I tried to pretend I was your RA and make it super trouble-free for you, being that it’s such a menial task and all. Barkley, was that too rough a ride for you due to the length of reading involved?? There’s nothing here even once about uniform distributions to confuse you, so I thought you’d like that part.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Gosh, Moses, you mean that the volatility in the September repo market involved entities beyond liquidity-constrained large banks facing end of quarter demands? Wow, that is really an astounding revelation. And those entities have become cautious about participating in the repo markets since the unexpected volatility appeared in those markets in September? Wow! Another astounding revelation nobody could have imagined or conceived of. I shall only note that your pieces did confirm that the NY Fed was not expecting this in September, although in an earlier post you argued that they were (or should have been) because of a couple of reports by Williamson at the St. Louis Fed advocating setting up a long term repo market, with it turning out that in fact there has been this new repo market established precisely because of the emerging problems in the established markets, with this also apparently having complicated things.

            Oh, you are accusing me of “make up text”? Wow, you look like the GOP on the House Intel comm(and also Trump, not the first time you have resembled him) getting all in a snit about Adam Schif making up text in his account of Trump’s phone call with Zelensky on 6/25. He was being satiricial. Did you really not get that I was being satirical? Do you think that there was anybody here reading that who did not get that I was being satirical? More important, do you think that there was anybody here stupid enough to have remotely been taken in that I was talking about you having made some wise insight on this that people at the BIS would have remotely praised? I thought it was preferable just to make a joke about it rather than repeating fot the umpteenth time that your argument on this point exhibited both massive ignorance as well as massive stupidity. Nobody is supporting you on that particular pile of ridiculous bs.

    1. baffling

      the more i learn about his policies and their impacts, the less i like the guy. do i think him to be inherently evil? no. he had a job to do. but in hind sight, there was far too much collateral damage from his approach than necessary to achieve the goals. his legacy would have been better served if he had been surround by some folks who could have tempered his actions a bit. a lot of personal lives were hurt because of his war on inflation.

      1. pgl

        The tight money policy in 1979 was overdone but it was temporary thankfully. But then came the Reagan fiscal stimulus where the FED severely overreacted with that disaster round II of monetary restraint. I remember some people back in the mid 1980’s calling Volcker the greatest FED chair ever – to which I would ask “are you kidding me”.

  10. baffling

    not only does trump bribe foreign governments for his own personal gain, now he is using the pentagon’s purse strings to attack his perceived “enemies” domestically as well:
    amazing that trump uses his position to enforce crony capitalism for his own political gain, but folks like peak loser, corev and rick stryker think that this is perfectly ok behavior by trump. at what point do you hold accountable somebody in the office of the president who uses that position for personal over national interests?

    1. pgl

      JEDI contract! Star Wars IX is coming out in 12 days!

      Now I’m no fan of Amazon Web Services but Microsoft if the Evil Empire.

  11. Moses Herzog

    A friendly reminder, of the type of “human being” Ohio Congressional Representative Jim Jordan is:

    Jim Jordan has nothing to say about a close colleague committing sexual abuse on students at the institution he works at, but is bothered by legislative process?? What an upstanding “human being”.

    1. pgl

      Remember Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (the go to guy for the Clinton impeachment as at least he was not cheating on his wife with a 22 old girl):

      “Less than three months before Dennis Hastert’s scheduled release from prison, a new accuser has come forward with allegations saying he was sodomized by Hastert decades ago, according to a lawsuit filed in Kendall County on Friday. The lawsuit comes nearly two years after an explosive indictment into secret hush-money payments brought down Hastert, a local coaching legend who became one of the country’s most powerful politicians. Federal prosecutors said the former U.S. House speaker touched at least five male students when he was a Yorkville High School coach from 1965 to 1981.”

      These students were on the wrestling team and Hastert was their coach. Wrestling coaches and sexually abusing their male athletes. The GOP does attract some really sick puppies.

      1. Moses Herzog

        They’re all over the place. One even gave $3.5 million to Hillary Clinton. It’s a strange thing, but I can’t find any connections to Bernie Sanders in this story. Or Bernie Bros even……..

        It’s interesting to note, george nader was busted on very similar charges long before was interrogated by Mueller, and long before he met with Donald Trump Jr, Jared Kushner, or Steve Bannon. Make sure to put on a full-body Hazmat suit similar to the following image: before clicking on the following links. Also, make sure to put ducktape around any parts that are exposed to open air.

        You know, after reading both of these stories pgl/b> I can’t figure out for the life of me why some people thought that donald trump and Hillary Clinton were equally as bad choices, can you??

        george nader is pictured together with “The VSG” at the top of this article——>> I think they make a very cute couple. Second opinions???

        1. pgl

          “I can’t figure out for the life of me why some people thought that donald trump and Hillary Clinton were equally as bad choices, can you??”

          I cannot either. I do recall my mother who is a Barbara Bush Republican for her own reasons telling me “I don’t trust Trump” back in 2016. I told her in response that Trump was far worse than she could ever imagine back then. But then she told me that she was not that fond of Hillary Clinton. It seems that the 20 year bashing of the Clintons by the Faux News crowd had its price on the minds of a lot of Americans. Alas.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            I wonder how an abuser of children got the impression that money given in a concealed fashion to Hillary would eventually give him influence in her administration?? So weird…… where would george nader get that idea??




            Also, I wonder how Hillary and Meryl Streep were the only two people who didn’t know what everyone else is Hollywood has told us was “an open secret”?? How strange….. Well I guess it makes sense….. pgl, could this possibly be the type thing your Mom was thinking?? I mean I’m so confused, Bernie hasn’t been running for President for 20 years and I thought you told me it was only Bernie Bros who hated Hillary, so this has my mind so muddled now.

    2. pgl

      “A mobile billboard calling for Congress to investigate sexual abuse scandals at Ohio State University is parked on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.”

      You know it turns out that most of the students at THE Ohio State University are still hung over from the game this weekend and all the whining that the football team dropped to #2 as LSU won so big against the University of Georgia.

  12. Moses Herzog

    Folks, Menzie is pretty tolerant of me. And I do respect Menzie (though he may not believe that). So I don’t want to push things too far here. But if you have a very adult sense of humor and you are above age 18, do a search for “Muddy Waters Research the Fidouchies” and enjoy ok?? You may have to hunt around a little and click more than one link, but you can find it. It is crude but there’s a lot of truth in that crude commentary and people should get some laughs mixed in with the stress and “goody two shoes” mood of the holidays, yeah?? I genuinely hope people enjoy it–but it is crude, so you’ve been warned. I have no connection to its creation.

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