Forward Looking Components in GDP

Jim will be writing a more comprehensive assessment of the 2019Q4 advance GDP release tomorrow. For now, I’ll just note that business fixed investment, a forward looking variable, has registered a negative decline for the last three quarters of 2019.

Figure 1: Investment components, in bn Ch. 2012$ SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA 2019Q4 advance release.

Equipment investment can be broken down into industrial, transportation, and other.

Figure 2: Equipment investment components, in bn Ch. 2012$ SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA 2019Q4 advance release.

Industrial equipment investment declined 14.1% q/q SAAR.

31 thoughts on “Forward Looking Components in GDP

  1. 2slugbaits

    Well, this is pretty much what the CBO told us would happen in the aftermath of the Trump-leave-no-billionaire-behind-tax-cut. So now we’re left with sluggish growth while at full employment and trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. Worse yet, a lot of the tax cuts for the lower and middle classes are starting to expire, although the tax cuts for the wealthy are permanent. But the usual rubes who are addicted to Fox Noise will never admit there’s a problem. Just keep wearing that MAGA hat and have another gulp of that Kool-Aid. Oh yes, the Philly Fed Coincident Index is looking pretty rosy…except in this case being a rose colored state is a bad thing.

  2. pgl

    ” For now, I’ll just note that business fixed investment, a forward looking variable, has registered a negative decline for the last three quarters of 2019.”

    And we were told that 2017 tax cut for the rich would lead to a yuuuge surge in business fixed investment. Some of us said “yea right” back then. Looks like we were right!

  3. Moses Herzog

    Pay attention to all of this article including the last 2 paragraphs. We’ve discussed Michael Cohen, Rudolph Giuliani, and other of donald trump’s lawyers. Have you noticed the pattern where the lawyers representing trump at any given time are in just as much hot water on the issue at hand as donald trump is?? Both Pam Bondi and Jay Sekulow have had multiple meetings with Lev Parnas. What a coincidence:

    And the woman on Mike Pence’s staff who testified to Congress?? She has now been shoved down to a position where assumably she cannot overhear or journal any conversations or activities of donald trump or Mike Pence. So, now she (Jennifer Williams) is being punished for telling what she saw in the donald trump White House. And people can’t figure out why we have whistleblower laws?? All this, while donald trump’s defense team in the impeachment tells us there have been “no abuses of power”.

  4. Moses Herzog

    They are saying on PBS NewsHour, that the White House feels it’s 90% Lamar Alexander will vote against witnesses testifying. So, this entire process has now in essence ended. I figure it ends by Saturday or possibly even before Saturday midnight. Long live our new King.

    1. pgl

      “I have come to the conclusions that there will be no fair trial in the Senate. I don’t believe the continuation of this process will change anything. It is sad for me to admit that, as an institution, the Congress has failed.” – Senator Murkowski on why she will vote no to witnesses. Yes Senator – you have failed. They are all cowards.

      1. ilsm

        Tough night in my house!

        What is unfair is the grieving of those buying in to the Nadler and Schiff mendacity.

        Me, I had a shot of a nice Irish Whiskey !

          1. pgl

            “Mendacity is one of my favorite smart sounding words, I get to see it too much.”

            Looking in the mirror as you perform your favorite art!

  5. joseph

    The apologists from the White House are coming out now and saying the tax cuts would have shown more effect if it weren’t for the trade war.

    They seem to be neglecting that fact the very same people were responsible for both.

    1. The Rage

      If anything the trade war caused debt to surge and forced subprime consumer lenders to Jack up rates. Which created a short bubble.

  6. spencer

    Ill just note that trade accounted for 1.48 percentage points of the 2.1% growth in fourth quarter real GDP.

    So everything else amounted to about 0.5 percentage points of GDP growth.

    1. pgl

      True as imports fell quite a bit. A lot of the rest of this growth was a rise in defense spending. Business fixed investment fell a lot.

  7. pgl
    “Dershowitz says media ‘willfully distorted’ his view of presidential power”

    I listened to what this arrogant lying POS told the Senate. I also listened to his whiny little interview on CNN. First of all – this lying clown lied about what the House managers said on this issue so it is complete intellectual garbage for him to whine that he was misrepresented. Listen to the end of this clip where Toobin points out that Dershowitz entire case misrepresents WTF happened with the aid to Ukraine and what Trump wanted in return. By lying about the facts, Dershowitz lied about the law.

    And yet this lying blowhard is who people like Lamar Alexander turn to for their cowardly decision to say Trump did it but who cares.

      1. pgl

        I guess you drank two bottles of that Irish Whiskey. Your trolling is getting weaker as you are perpetually drunk.

        1. ilsm

          I suggest Red Breast 12 year single, not too expensive and quite smooth. Two 3/4 litre take 3 months.

  8. Moses Herzog

    Pedowitz has a lot more time to lecture others on their “shortcomings” as human beings since Jeffrey Epstein passed away. Losing your סרסור can be a rough going, but on the bright side it probably opened up a lot of calendar dates for him.

    1. pgl

      Pedowitz! Love it. Now for us gentiles, could you translate “סרסור” please? Unless the English translation gets you banned.

      1. Moses Herzog

        You can copy paste to Google translate (which was what I did to get the Hebrew). The mild synonym would be “go-between”.

        1. pgl

          Wow – my computer started screaming “inappropriate comment”. But wait – all it means is pimp? I need to turn down my filter on these things as this is sort of mild. But maybe I lost something in the translation!

          1. Moses Herzog

            Hey, you learned how to use Google translate now, so it’s all good.

            By implication the relationship between Pedowitz and Epstein wasn’t that hard to figure out, was it?? No one on planet Earth of any intelligence believes these two were friends because Pedowitz needed investment advice or Epstein needed legal representation. Slime is attracted to slime, that’s how we end up with the trump White House cabinet.

            People on this blog may find this hard to believe but I take no joy in using vulgarity on this blog or anywhere in my life. If you knew how much my parents pounded that one into me compared to the typical American of my generation raised on cable TV like cable TV was the next important thing in life subsistence to oxygen, you might all be surprised. But I also think there are times when “gosh golly darn I hate when democracy is being thrown to the wolves” just doesn’t do it. When there is anger or borderline rage that is when the vulgarity should come out. Not 550 times in a Hollywood movie to the point of numbness. Or the 30th time in a Showtime TV series’ single 40 minute episode after we had the obligatory 3rd gay sex scene even though it had no context/ plot flow with the story so the producers can go “See folks, we are SO cool with this and we are SO ‘SJW’ “. The “uncool” people with no clique back in high school all know who these TV series producers were bashing back in their private school days.

            There is a wrestler now, named Tessa Blanchard who used the N-word against a colleague/peer who is going on with her career as popular as ever like nothing happened. There have been at least 3 of her peers to confirm this in the public sphere after the story broke. There are rappers who think this adds to their coolness/ pop culture currency to use these words. I have no idea to sit down and figure out when society thinks these things are appropriate for some and abomination for others, I have my personal barometer, and I stick with that.

  9. Moses Herzog

    This possibly saves Hillary Clinton from being the hands down unanimous worst campaigner in the first half of the 21st century. I think Hillary needs to send an Arkansas produced bottle of wine and a thank you note to this man:

    Hillary, isn’t it nice not to be the worst at something?? Go celebrate with your Senate “friends” now that “love you so deeply”, and that you call on the phone every week–because you’re so “lovable” to everyone in the Senate.

    Bernies Sander’s name, as a co-sponsor, is on both of the above passed legislation. Wait, Hillary…….. your name wasn’t on these Bills?? And many other bills that became law with Bernie Sander’s name on them as a co-sponsor…… Your name isn’t on those bills which became law Hillary. Why?? Oh yeah, you suck A– as a political campaigner. I forgot. But hey, Hillary, I hear that all your Senate Democrat colleagues cry themselves to sleep every night since you left. So there’s that.

    Have fun in Ireland Hillary. I’d avoid pubs if I were you Hillary. People who go to pubs regular have very low-tolerance for bullsh– liars Hillary. In ANY country. Try to keep that in mind and maybe you won’t make 80% of people puke whenever you open your mouth over there.

  10. oee

    The Truth is that the economy is in recession. The Chicago PMI went down to 42 which is less than the previous month . the Ism manufacturing index will follow it down.

    the reason for the decline in imports is that there was no real consumption. thus, the economy is in recession.

    Also, look to downward revision to the job growth in 2019. the economy only grew 2.50 % in 2018 with the creation of 2 million jobs. now that 2019 is almost in the books, the economy only created 2 million jobs. therefore it stands to reason there will be a downward revision for 2019.

    1. baffling

      brexit will be a shining example of how populist gimmicks screw up a nation. unfortunately, most other nations (including the usa) will probably not learn the lesson. most folks have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Pedowitz has been given a hard time about “still having his underpants on” during certain supposed events. My perception (though no way of proving) is that his underpants still being on is more supposed than the event/events themselves.

    2. baffling

      dershowitz is an example of the mental decline by old men who eventually simply speak from authority, irregardless of facts. dershowitz thinks he can say whatever he wants today but still live in the past. he is angry at the world for the sex scandal he got himself caught up in.

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