Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and aggregate of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, 2018M12=0. December data preliminary. GM strike in October. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin aggregate manufacturing employment 1% below peak. In contrast, nationwide manufacturing employment (total, including managerial) has been flat from September 2019.
Winning it swing states. I wonder if the rank and file will notice enough to swing a different direction.
“nationwide manufacturing employment (total, including managerial) has been flat from September 2019”.
The growth from January 2019 to September 2019 was not that great either.
“Manufacturing output advanced 0.2 percent in December but decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The gain in December came despite a decrease of 4.6 percent for motor vehicles and parts; assemblies of light motor vehicles fell from 11.2 million units (annual rate) in November to 10.3 million units in December. Excluding the motor vehicle sector, factory output rose 0.5 percent.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/%5D
As General Motors and Ford transition out of manufacturing sedans into predominantly SUVs and Trucks, this lowering of production and temporary layoffs was not a surprise in Michigan. GM and Ford are the dominant employers in Michigan.
• https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2020/01/24/gm-detroit-hamtramck-plant-jobs-electric-pickup/4557859002/
• https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/17/ford-invests-adds-jobs-southeast-michigan-plants.html
Michigan (and other midwest industrial states) seem to have these sort of swings in production and employment as both markets and models shift.
Bruce Hall: And here I thought BLS applied seasonal adjustment to the employment series…
“As General Motors and Ford transition out of manufacturing sedans into predominantly SUVs and Trucks, this lowering of production and temporary layoffs was not a surprise in Michigan. GM and Ford are the dominant employers in Michigan.”
This from the fool we call Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall who told us the absurd claim that there was some perfect correlation between the number of vehicles purposed by Americans and those assembled in Michigan. Ah Bruce you do have this weird habit of blatantly contradicting yourself!
Now now, none of you get it. The Trumpist response to this will be to point out that, gosh, these states went and elected Dem governors, so no wonder they are doing so poorly!
Imagine how bad it would be without Trump.
sammy: I’ll just point out that Wisconsin is a steel *user*, not producer. Do you know what an “effective rate of protection” is?
But Menzie, sammy knows that the foreigners pay those tariffs since Trump told us so, which has to help those Wisconsin steel users, not to mention Trump has gotten the Chinese to promise to buy infant dairy formula and the Canadians also to buy more dairy products, which will certainly help those Wisconsin dairy farmers who have committed suicide.
Nothing can touch Trump.
Trump once bragged during his campaign he was so popular that he could get away with shooting someone on Fifth Avenue. The Senate would acquit 53 to 47.
Unless he shot a Republican senator. In that case they would acquit 52 to 47.
He certainly could shoot Pelosi dead and the thugs would just say she needed killing.
And there would be those south of the Mason Dixon Line (as well as north of it) reverting to the Latin: Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Manufacturing has been in recession since August 2019 per ism, so there is no mystery as to the reason why Midwest is in recession also.
Re: manufacturing. Here in recession ravaged California, must be some voodoo economics/economists at work.
According to BLS data, California has GAINED manufacturing jobs in the past year, up about 9,000 since July. At the same time, Wisconsin has basically flattened as has Pennsylvania while Michigan and Ohio have suffered significant declines. If Trump is attempting to punish California while favoring the Mideast and the Midwest, he has a funny way of showing it.
And, there’s more strange stuff afoot. In Kern County, represented in Congress by “My Kevin” McCarthy, the unemployment rate in November was 6.4%. Next door in Tulare County represented in Congress by Devin Parnas, er Nunes, the unemployment rate is 8.5%. (Perhaps if Dev spent more time concerned about Visalia and less worrying about a potential BIdenstan in Kiev, things would improve in that area of the central valley. Or Iowa where the family dairy operation is now located)
Contrast those numbers to socialist San Francisco (represented by We Know Who) where BLS pegs unemployment at 1.9%. Voodoo? Just as startling is the 2.3% rate for San Francisco/Alameda/Fremont where, as we know, various economic evil doers hold sway.
But, as fellow noneconomist Sammy says, imagine how bad things would be without Trump. Or may well be with Trump. We shall see.
They’re saying Lamar Alexander might vote for witnesses (Bolton, Mulvaney, etc). I tend to doubt it. I put it at 80% he as an individual vote-caster votes against witnesses. More than happy to be wrong on that. I also have zero hopes on the Mormon and the Parkinson’s victim in Maine.
Apparently Romney has said he will vote to see witnesses.
fyi, QCEW thru Jun for MFG is higher in WI & PA suggesting upward revisions are coming. MI is lower/likely to get revised down.