The Employment Benchmark Revision: Implications for the Economy’s Trajectory

The January numbers are out. March 2019 levels revised down 514 thousands, vs. 501 in preliminary. December numbers revised down 422 thousands. My guess based on December estimates and the March 2019 preliminary benchmark (see this post), the actual reported numbers for December were higher by 79 thousand.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from December 2019 release (bold blue), from January 2020 release (bold red), August 2019 preliminary benchmark revision for March 2019 NFP (dark blue square), implied NFP using Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (bold green), household survey adjusted to nonfarm payroll employment concept (chartreuse), Chinn estimate of BLS benchmark revision using data available in January (pink) Source: BLS via FRED, BLS and author’s calculations.

 

11 thoughts on “The Employment Benchmark Revision: Implications for the Economy’s Trajectory

  1. spencer

    P.S. The newly released December trade data implies that trade’s contribution to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be revised down.

    Reply
      1. spencer

        I’m using this. I believe it is table 10.

        ttps://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html

        Sorry, I get my data through Haver Analytics so I do not have direct links.

        Reply
  2. Moses Herzog

    This is the best numerical breakdown of the Iowa situation I have seen up to now. They are saying something called “satellite” caucuses could still give Bernie the lead on delegates. Now I could be a baby about it like the Hillary fans and say “Bernie won”. But I’ve (for the most part) past the 12 year old stage of maturity, and I’m going to tell you, it’s the delegate count that is the real win here. So, as much as I hate him, if Buttigieg wins the delegate count, then it’s Buttigieg that wins Iowa. That’s not 100% certain at this moment, but he is leading.
    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/?2

    Biden still looks strong for Super Tuesday. We’ll see how it shakes out. But if he keeps making gaffs and loses New Hampshire, I don’t see how that helps. I’ll be literally shocked if a gay candidate does well in the south, so that keeps Biden “in the game” for the time being.

    Reply
  3. The Rage

    I think Biden needs to win the white Vegas burbs and split the brown like Clinton to jump start his campaign into SC. He is such a regional character, which is good and bad compared to Clinton. He is stronger with Reagan Democrat types, but weaker with other subgroups. He is the anti-establishment neoliberal. Obama and Clinton don’t want him, but he has been building relationships for 30 years and hangs around. They are trying to starve him of money. While Bernie takes money from Republican donors.

    Reply
  4. oee

    The economy is in recession. the economy only created 2 million jobs in 2018 with 2.50 % econ growth. Now, with growth coming lower in 2019, thefore, the 2 million now reported will be less.

    Reply
  5. Moses Herzog

    Menzie had a guest post, I’m pretty sure it was a guest post, but he may have just highlighter the paper, of a guy from Notre Dame. On his college website he had a FREE econometrics textbook. I lost it when my other comp went dead. Does anyone remember that prof’s name or the specific post?? Thanks. Probably somewhere between a year and 1/2 year ago.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      I found it, Apparently I remembered it wrong and it was a Macro book. HIs name is Eric Sims. The book is STILL there and can be downloaded FREE.

      Reply
  6. Moses Herzog

    I was just reading a week old NYT and daydreaming. Wondering what economic impact the virus will have etc. They claimed as many as 2,000 more confirmed infections per day. Then I had a semi-random thought. Did we ever think we’d hit a point where Brexit happening and become official would in essence become “a footnote” in the news?? After ALL the protracted melodrama and the Brexit becomes a footnote?? Am I not right on that or is it just because our house doesn’t have cable?? It didn’t seem like to stir people’s seats up more than a foul ball in a 12-0 baseball game in the 8th inning, did it??

    Reply
    1. Bert Schlitz

      Considering the debt contraction going on with Brexit, harder than I think people thought, it is more than a footnote.

      Reply

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