Like the rest of the nation, employment in Wisconsin recovered slightly. Unanswered is how sustainable the recovery is.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment as reported (black), and as projected in Wisconsin Economic Outlook (teal), in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and WI Department of Revenue.
Wisconsin employment (preliminary) is outperforming forecasted; this outcome represents the early removal of shelter-in-place and reopening of the economy.
Since unemployment rate calculations over the last two reported months were skewed because of widespread miscategoriation of furloughed workers as employed but not at work, instead of as unemployed, I’ll skip this variable. Here is a figure of employment levels (with the household survey figures still subject to measurement problems).
Figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment as reported (black), and civilian employment as reported (blue), in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
Um…. ‘recovered’?
I look at that chart and at the dictionary definition of ‘recovered’ and the don’t look the same to me.
Wally: good point – I added “slightly”
Even if the economy makes it back to 90% of where it was in January of this year, it will still be disastrous in terms of unemployment. New York is opening up this week but how many people will be returning to office work? I know of some offices in Maryland that won’t be reopening until July or early August. A lot of restaurants that do lunch business are not going to make it and with increased remote work which is going to continue will drive down commercial real estate prices. I wonder if Jared Kushner’s Manhattan White Elephant is going to sink his nascent empire.
Where’s Rick Stryker? Trump needs him badly to prove that the media is lying about the two-thirds empty arena in Tulsa with his megapixel pictures. Bring back Sean Spicer!
Oh, no. Kevin Hassett is leaving the White House — again. As Krugman points out, who is going to update Hassett’s cubit fit to the coronavirus model. You might recall that Hassett’s cubic fit showed coronavirus deaths going to ZERO by May 15, which I am sure pleased his master immensely.
pence has assured us the coronavirus is under control and fading away. there are a few hotspots, but the cdc will send in a team and put them out immediately. there are no problems with the virus. time to move on. the record number of new infections is not correct. we will reduce the number of tests and therefore eliminate any new infections. maga.
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