Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, June release (brown), July release (pink), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.
Nonfarm payroll employment grew 30.5 thousand from a downwardly revised June level (1.1% growth, not annualized).
I estimated the relationship between the national and Wisconsin series (2019-2020M06) in first differences to forecast July employment. Employment was 9.5 thousand below predicted, i.e. an error of 0.35% (in log terms).
Manufacturing employment rose 1.2% (not annualized) from a downwardly revised June employment level.
Figure 2: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), in Wisconsin (red), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
Manufacturing employment is down about 6% relative to peak, in both the US and Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin manufacturing employment is pretty flat since May.
Another point of interest is that a substantial hit to employment — with little recovery to date — is in government employment.
Figure 3: Change in Wisconsin nonfarm employment accounted for by private employment (blue), and by government (brown), in 000’s. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
Update, 8/21: I was on WPR yesterday; here’s audio.
I confused. You predicted employment would grow by 37 thousand. Now you note:
“Nonfarm payroll employment grew 30.5 thousand from a downwardly revised June level (1.1% growth, not annualized). I estimated the relationship between the national and Wisconsin series (2019-2020M06) in first differences to forecast July employment. Employment was 9.5 thousand below predicted, i.e. an error of 0.35% (in log terms).”
Actual employment was only 6.5 thousand below predicted – right?
pgl: Due to downward revision in June numbers, it turns out I was off in levels by 9.5 thousand.
Dozens of former GOP national security officials to back Biden, call Trump ‘dangerously unfit’
The group says Biden has ‘the character, experience and temperament to lead this nation’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dozens-former-gop-national-security-officials-to-back-biden
More than 70 former Republican national security officials from multiple administrations are coming forward to endorse Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden – the latest in a number of former GOP officials and lawmakers to back the former vice president.
“While we – like all Americans – had hoped that Donald Trump would govern wisely, he has disappointed millions of voters who put their faith in him and has demonstrated that he is dangerously unfit to serve another term,” the statement, to run in the Wall Street Journal on Friday, says.