The map below shows the geographic variation in the decline in nonfarm payroll employment relative to August 2019. Nationwide, the decline is 6.8% (NFP growth was trending at 1.6% up to February 2020, 1.3% up to August 2019).
Figure 1: Change in nonfarm payroll employment, August 2019 to 2020, in % (decimal form). Darker indicates a bigger drop. Source: BLS, accessed 9/18/2020.
Clearly, we are not back to where we were…
It is a surprise that the drop is not larger. This is a bizarre economy.
Remember cares spending saved a bunch of jobs. It also paid down debt. Now spending will creak downward slowly in a correction the next 6-12 months, the probably surge again by the 2nd half of next year.
The drop in NY was pretty large. Hopefully we are reopening safely.
By the end of the year, the darker states will be lighter.