Wisconsin Employment in August

Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, August release (brown), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on July release of state and August release of national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.

I used a first-log-differences specification between Wisconsin and national employment over the 2019-2020M07 period to forecast August employment. For August, the forecast error was 5541 (underpredicted by 0.2%). For July, the forecast error was -9547 (overpredicted by 0.35%), with the methodology discussed in this post.

Manufacturing employment continued to grow as well, although at a decelerating pace.

Figure 2: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), Wisconsin (brown), s.a., in logs 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, DWD,and author’s calculations.

The unemployment rate in Wisconsin continued to fall; as discussed here, even in normal times, you have to take these figures with some caution, given the measurement error.

Figure 3: Unemployment rate for US (blue), for Wisconsin (brown), in percentage points. Source: BLS, DWD. 

The US unemployment rate is about 0.9 percentage points higher than Wisconsin’s on average (1990-2019), so Wisconsin is doing a bit better than the nation. Some of this is probably due to the manufacturing intensity of the state (fewer service jobs to be lost). Hard to say whether this is statistically significant, given measurement error.

8 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment in August

  1. Barkley Rosser

    Now you all have that awful Dem governor, Evers, rather than wonderful Walker. No wonder employment doing slightly better than US as a whole and UR falling more rapidly. I mean, that is what you get for having a breakdown of law and order in Kenosha.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Uh-Oh, more sad news for the Barkster.

      I think Barkley Junior can fix this with his “Q-36 Immodium Space Distribution Skew-alator”

      This new gadget Junior has created is sure to be a hit with the boys at ALEC and I’m calling Arthur Laffer right now, to inform him to avoid all labs run by Chinese immigrants~~~before it’s too late!!!!!

      There are rumors floating that Barkley Junior stole this distribution transformation technology from Ron Vara, but that is unconfirmed as of this moment.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Regarding the first link, which is somehow supposed to be “sad news” for me, the bottom line of that article is that these people do not know the origin of the virus, although it was almost certainly not artificially created in a lab. But then that has been known for a long time, or at least widely accepted, and I never suggested that it was, indeed reported that it probably was not on several occasions. This paper does not address at all the possibility that while having naturally evolved in an animal, a bat or a pangolin maybe, the two species mentioned, that it could have gotten to humans from an infected animal in a lab in Wuhan, with it known that at least one of the labs had bats. They reference in the paper that a lot of cases seem to have come out of the wet market in Wuhan, but that has already been long known. The question is how it got there, and they add nothing new that would answer that at all.

        BTW, Moses, since you are so down on the Dem VP nominee and you like to imitate Trump, do you also mispronounce her first name as he does, putting the emphasis on the second syllable rather than the first as she and most of us do?

  2. Moses Herzog

    I’ve always found it fascinating how certain stories translate across different cultures, and you cannot necessarily find a common thread. I did find there were certain things that seemed to appeal more to mainland Chinese. They seemed to sometimes get a kick out of stories or TV series which presented westerners as babbling morons. One example off the top of my head, It’s said that Benny Hill reruns were quite popular in China. What was the reason for the appeal to a mainland Chinese audience?? It’s debatable, Americans also liked to watch the re-runs of Benny Hill for a certain segment of time, I wanna say around the early to mid-’80s. I remember seeing a series in Chinese restaurants that ran in the evenings, I didn’t recognize the western actor, where the westerner was an idiotic clown doing a lot of physical slapstick humor, similar to how you might watch “Curly” of the 3 Stooges do. It mostly made me roll my eyes in semi-sadness as I glanced at it while eating, rather than really “offend” me.

    Almost all of my Chinese students, to a man, loved the story of Forrest Gump. Was it because Forrest was presented as “slow” in many aspects?? I honestly think it was the sentimental portion of Gump’s inner character, his innocence and non-jaded view of life and what is rock bottom important is what made the Forrest Gump character so loved by Chinese people, and NOT his slow-witted or simpleton ways per se.

  3. Moses Herzog

    I knew it!!!! I knew it!!!! This whole time I knew it!!!! CoRev, sammy, Bruce Hall, and Ed Hanson have been wearing masks this whole time!!! This entire time they’ve been wearing masks!!! Since back in late February!!!!! Pay attention to the voices and the hairstyles!!! We are finally going to unmask these evil anonymous people!!! Or my name isn’t “Barkster Skewmeister Junior PhD”:

    BTW, I’ve already narrowed it down by deductive reasoning, that beyond all doubt PeakTrader is the guy in the blue short sleeve shirt and red gym shorts. Here’s some more evidence, if anyone wants to help me narrow this down. I strongly suspect that Bruce Hall is the guy with the Washington team’s (formerly Redskins) cap. There’s only 4 men in the room, so all we have to do is figure out which one is which, unless sammy is transgender, which you know, sammy is a unisex type name, so…… work with me here people.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Ah, so “Barkster Skewmater Junior” (with a PhD) is the real name of “Moses Herzog,” goyish admirer of Jews. Now we know. Good to meet you, finally, Barkster, :-).

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Now that Barkster Herzog has revealed his true real name on Rosh Hoshanah, now passed, there is the question of his real ethnic identity. The question becomes what kind of name is “Skewmater”? Maybe it is Jewish, perhaps of some obscure Sephardic origin from some weird location.

        OTOH, perhaps this is an ancient Cherokee name. Now that our good friend Barkster (formerly “Moses”) has revealed to us his real name, well, we should recognize this with full respect. This now explains why he has been so vociferously angry about “Pocahontas” Elizabeth Warren making a fuss for a period of time back in the 80s and early 90s before dropping it, although Republicans would later drag it back up when she later ran for office. That this was completely ridiculous bs that Barkster would rant and rave about here for years, even making a complete fool of himself by pushing silly statistical arguments in support of this apparently absurd ranting, well, now we understand.

        Now that we realize that Barkster Skewmater, Jr. is really an Oklahoma Cherokee, his unhappiness with her participating in a supposed Cherokee cookbook is completely understandable. She has apologized for some of her past behavior regarding all this, but given his ancestry as a true Cherokee Skewmater, it is completely understandable that he would never accept this and continue to make snarky remarks about her past conduct.

        We completely understand your position on this, Barkster Skewmater, Jr. aka “Moses Herzong.”

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Oh, sorry, that would be Barkster Skewmeistrr Junior is apprarently fake Jew Moses Herzog’s real name. Guess we can just call him “BS Junior.” That should do just fine.

          My guess is that since he thinks a majority of white Americans have Native American Indian ancestry, and he is from North Carolina originally, he is descended from the eastern Cherokees who live in NC. This would explain his otherwise weird hostility to Eiizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren. He personally resents her putting a non-authethtic recipe in that Cherokee cookbook that came out. After all, he probably had the real thing when he was young and is thus especially offended by this insult to his tribe by this distant cousin of hie.

          Right, BS Junior?

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