From Torsten Slok, now at Apollo.
A survey of 457 New York City restaurants, bars, and nightclubs shows that 87% could not pay their full rent in August, up from 80% in June, see chart below. Of the 87% who could not pay their rent, 48% paid some of their rent, and of those, 49% paid half of their rent. The survey also shows that 40% of landlords have waived rent in relation to Covid-19. And for 43% of those restaurants, bars, and nightclubs that had their rent waived, the rent waived was 50%. With colder weather coming, this continues to be a difficult balance between keeping the virus under control versus limiting the economic damage. This trade-off also describes the US macro outlook, and we should expect a magnified negative seasonal impact on employment and GDP in Q4. Which is yet another good reason to expect the Fed to remain very dovish.
Here’s the associated graphic:
I think a good number of Republican policymakers think the crisis is over, given the economy is growing (although back to nowhere near 2019Q4 levels). They are wrong, particularly as it pertains to the food service sector, which accounted for about 20% of all February payroll employment in the US, on the eve of the pandemic’s impact.
Figure 1: Employment in food services and drinking places, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Employment growth was already flattening in early August; maybe there’ll be a recovery in the statistics for early September – but going forward, it’s going to look bad.
We need a policy to support this sector, while NOT increasing the transmission of Covid-19. If we can bail-out the airline industry to the tune of billions (CARES provided $50 billion), I think we can spare some funds for this sector.
Two personal observations:
- While outside dining can continue elsewhere, with the exception of some hardy long-time Wisconsinites, I can’t imagine outside dining in January in Madison.
- A typical person working in the food services sector is not high income (it was true when my father worked his whole life in it, it’s true now). If we truly want to allocate some resources to the lower-income deciles, then we should be even more in support of measures to buttress this industry and its employees.
I have to say any organisation where people are indoors wil lnot make much money until Covid is dead. Those droplets from the mouth are deadly indoors.
“A survey of 457 New York City restaurants, bars, and nightclubs shows that 87% could not pay their full rent in August, up from 80% in June, see chart below. Of the 87% who could not pay their rent, 48% paid some of their rent, and of those, 49% paid half of their rent. The survey also shows that 40% of landlords have waived rent in relation to Covid-19. And for 43% of those restaurants, bars, and nightclubs that had their rent waived, the rent waived was 50%.”
Even in normal times, the rents in Manhattan are obscene. If this pandemic cuts NYC rents by 50% this could lead to an NYC boom.
Just as corporations are reconsidering how they structure their workforce, i.e. reducing in some great part their in-office workforce, perhaps we should rethink the core notion of “restaurant dining” – which is in the West a fairly new development: 200 years at the outside, more practically a food niche due to the rise of the affluent middle class during the late industrial revolution. (There are ironies, now being rediscovered, that technology has enabled the average person to cook exceptional food in a small home kitchen, without much difficulty arose, just as the cult of “fine” cusine served well, with style and presentation, became big).
At the very least, we’re likely to see the kind of socio-economic change that happened when fast food chains effectively extincted many thousands of small diners.
Food away from home was common in anciety Rome and in just about every urban center since. Ddining out as recreation may be a new concept, but dining out is thousands of years old.
Even though I have been very skeptical of “curb side” service, this may be the best option. But that assumes the very best in human behaviors, which means both the food worker and the customer using masks, washing hands, hand sanitizer, and possibly even some focus on where they direct their face/mouth in interpersonal communication (during the food handover.) I’ve even wondered if something couldn’t be worked out where the food is left at a table (or some kind of stand??) and then picked up at the table after the server has left the 10 foot radius area (A “kiosk with humans” if that makes any sense). Some places here have stopped using cash, which is hard to argue with, but I have to confess on a personal level having mixed feelings about. I do think there are people out there (and I have to timidly admit to being one of them) who still prefer using cash, and it limits choices when businesses say they don’t accept it. I stopped purchasing stuff from an onion burger place I really like because of this policy.
There is a donuts franchise nearby, which is owned by a family I am 80% sure is Korean. I am pretty good at differentiating Asian accents after being in China awhile, in a coastal area “Development Zone” that hard large numbers of Japanese, Korean Chinese and regular Chinese (and the school I worked at was one of three “minorities universities” in the nation at that time, even though the idiots insisted on calling in “Nationalities University” after I told them 5 million times it was dumb-A$$ as hell, got me as far as telling them free basketballs for students wouldn’t stop SARS). So I think it’s humorous~~~ I bet 95% of their customers assume they are Chinese, but I’m pretty sure they are Korean because they have kind of that sing-songy thing. I don’t mean “sing songy” in a derogatory way, but it’s hard to describe in words but I know it when I hear it. I get a maple long john and a coffee there like, every other morning at 5:15 am. Could I get a pack of donuts at Wal Mart and make coffee at home and hardly know the difference?? Yeah, but I like the maple long john, and I’me pretty sure it’s a family that runs it, so it makes me feel good knowing that maybe that X amount of dollars per week is helping a family keeping going rather than give it to a conglomerate like McDonalds. Even though arguably, the donut place is still a franchise outfit. They never get the order wrong, they always smile and are courteous. I never thought I’d enter a world where Asian Americans comprehension of English would surpass white trash kids from poorly run grade schools. Here we are. American white kids no longer understand “no cheese” or “hold the mayo”. I think they think it’s an old peoples’ parlor game. “What is Nawcheez”??? Maybe QAnon told them “No cheese” is part of a secret pedo code language.
In general it is the stupid nonsensical Covid phobic rules that in part killing restaurants. No seating at the bar, because tables are much more Covid proof. You don’t have to wear a mask while seated dining for an hour, but as soon as you stand up and put two feet on the carpet, suddenly you are contagious are confronted to put a mask on. Not to mention the deadly walk to your table. No serving a bar menu, only a dinner menu because full plates are covid proof, while smaller plates are vectors. Turning people away at the door because of crazy distancing rules. We talked our way into a restaurant, only to find it maybe 1/10th full because of some sort of capacity restrictions.
I have been trying to eat out at nice restaurants a couple of times a week, just to support them, but it is an aggravating experience. Most restaurant owners and managers realize the rules are stupid and make no sense, but sigh and say that they fear getting shut down. Restaurants are geared to profit only at capacity, so even 75% is a death knell for owners and employees. I know, I owned a restaurant for 10 years. So yeah, restaurants are dying…….. because of people like you all. They don’t need a bailout, they need to be left alone. We can make our own decisions about our safety.
sammy: For you, I hope all the social distancing in restaurant rules are waived so you can do whatever you want. I do, however, feel sorry for the people who will be around you, and subject to elevated risk.
Yeah, and I also think we should get rid of those stooopid no-smoking indoor rules. No evidence a little smoke does anybody harm. I hope to tell my father who was a bartender for 20 odd years when indoor smoking was allowed that that had nothing to do with his lung cancer. I guess I’ll be doing that in the hereafter.
Man, words cannot express …
Menzie,
You are assuming the stupid rules that restaurants are subjected to are constructive. I do not.
You complain that restaurants are going out of business, when you are forcing them out of business.
You complain that the economy is suffering, when you are advocating shut downs.
You can’t have it both ways.
sammy: Well, if the customer are dead and/or sick, they’ll close anyway. Yeah, I heard those no-indoor smoking rules were “stupid rules that weren’t constructive. Like I say, I’ll tell my dad you know better than the public health folks…
And, we *could* bail out the restaurant sector. Probably cost les than the $50 billion allocated to airlines, and reduce fatalities much more effectively.
“You are assuming the stupid rules that restaurants are subjected to are constructive. I do not.”
sammy, the reality is that restaurants and bars should not be open for indoor service, period. these are the greatest vectors when dealing with the virus today. the fact that we have even given them the opportunity to remain open at this point should be considered a victory on your end. your griping is an example of give an inch, take a mile.
i would also like to return to normal, have a lunch out and enjoy a beer at the bar. unfortunately, that behavior does not coexist with the need to reduce virus circulation. as you know by running your restaurant into bankruptcy, sammy, that life is not fair. there are times when you want to do action A, but are unable to because of current conditions. that is the world we live in today. and the sooner we accept this, and begin to act responsibly, the sooner you will be able to eventually do some of the things we did in the past. but you need to have more patience than a toddler here, so we can put down the virus first, then enjoy our previous life second.
Menzie is not “assuming”. He is relying on the best available science. The whole know-nothing anti-science schtick depends on the assertion that there are no facts, only opinion. Harry Frankfurt put paid to you little rhetorical trick some time ago: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/385.On_Bullshit
“You are assuming the stupid rules that restaurants are subjected to are constructive. I do not.”
Yes that is the exact problem. You presume that you know more and better than experts with dozen of years of experience in public health, in infectious diseases and in physics. There is no convincing delusional idiots like that because they like conspiracy nutcases have propped up their fragile ego with the narrative that THEY are the once who know and all others are fools that have been fooled. If they were to accept the facts they would fall from that pedestal. The sad part is that every now and then such people ends up in power (like the orange clown in the white house) and they can be very damaging – because reality doesn’t bend to false narratives.,
you hear them every monday morning, when they call into the talk sports radio shows and illustrate how they are fundamentally more knowledgable about the game of football than the head coach who has devoted a lifetime to the teaching and enhancing the sport. if only that idiot coach would listen to the unemployed schmuck calling in from his pajamas, that coach would understand the riddles of football were solved 20 years ago when the schmuck was playing second string on the junior varsity football squad…
It is my understanding that bars are a more serious problem than restaurants. We have seen several states where allowing bars to open was followed by noticeable upticks in the virus. This is also connected to the student problem in college towns wit bars competing with partying for being major centers for spreading the disease.
only an idiot would believe that reopening a college campus to college students would not result in a coronavirus epidemic in the region.
Sammy is “conservative” Republican isn’t he?? Aren’t they the ones that keep saying “blue lives matter”?? They got their own special flag I’ve seen some rednecks put outside their house in the front yard. Hell, in my own damned neighborhood I’ve seen these “Blue Lives Matter” flags verifying their detachment from the communities they are supposed to serve. What would Sammy tell Officer Sewell’s family right now??
https://www.koco.com/article/ohp-captain-dies-after-being-hospitalized-due-to-covid-19-officials-say/34176016#
I guess Sammy could tell them that social distancing rules are all quite silly and that Officer Jeff Sewell’s three week stay in a hospital and the casket his dead body is being carried in, in the picture below, is “just another made up liberal lie”. “Officer Jeff Sewell and his family must be part of the deep state conspiracy” Sammy will tell us.
https://twitter.com/OHPDPS/status/1310262241611198465
Somehow I think that’s going to be a “hard sell” for Sammy, because Sammy is just upset he can’t sit at the bar stools right now, and one has to have priorities in life. Whimpering and sniffling about not being able to sit at a bar stool is how Sammy proves he’s tough, and not a “snowflake”.
Maybe they can put some “Fake Bake” instant tanning spray on Sewell’s corpse and then “Princeton”Kopits can call it a death certificate issue and exclude it from his excess deaths tabulation. Being a Republican who believes in “family values” I’m certain we can get Kopits to sign on to this idea.
Don’t worry “Princeton”Kopits, we’ll make certain the instant tanning spray used on Officer Sewell’s corpse is labeled “extreme dark” so you won’t have to worry about any confusion on where you stand on his death being unnecessary and avoidable or just “something that happened to an unimportant American anyway”. Your voice counts Steve.
The cops are pigs and black lives matter are a bunch of selfish smug losers. Sometimes they all suck.
i have been surprised the local police and fire unions and departments have not taken a stronger stance on the virus. in houston, both are getting decimated, because these folks are forced to go into the public on a daily basis and serve. the police would be much safer if the public was not a reservoir for the virus. and yet, i am surprised by the number of police who do not seem to make the link between community circulation and the high rate of infection by police and firemen. if blue lives do matter, then the public should do a better job of protecting those folks when the opportunity arises. no real need to add more risk to an already dangerous job. and yet we do just that.
baffling i have been surprised the local police and fire unions and departments have not taken a stronger stance on the virus. in houston, both are getting decimated,
One of my nieces is married to a sheriff’s deputy in rural Missouri. One of the deputies thought it was all a “Democrat hoax” so he broke the rules and put holes in his mask. The entire department caught COVID, as did at least one judge who was in critical condition. My niece’s husband, who is a physically fit guy, had a 101 degree temperature for nine days. After he got out of quarantine they went for a walk. He went one block and literally collapsed in the middle of the street. She had to go back and get the car to bring him home. During the time he was in quarantine that county did not have a single deputy available for duty. And then folks like sammy will try and convince us that blue lives matter.
I am not surprised that they end up more loyal to their tribal affiliations than anything else. Rich now Police officers feel under attack which is one of the most effective ways to get people back to their tribes.
The fact that Trump made COVID-19 a point of partisan tribal fights is responsible for at least half of the COVID-19 death. Imagine where we could have been if Trump had made wearing of masks and social distancing a patriotic duty instead of a political declaration. Actually you don’t have to imagine it just look at countries like Canada and Germany where such simple public health rules were never questioned by mainstream politicians.
sammy I have been trying to eat out at nice restaurants a couple of times a week, just to support them,
So what is preventing you from ordering your meal “to go”? What is preventing your favorite restaurants from offering a delivery service?
I bet Sammy is frustrated by the commission charged by the delivery service. He would rather save the few bucks even if that means the waiter catches the virus and dies. MAGA!
BTW, it’s interesting to me Sammy says “You can’t have it both ways”, when he’s apparently OK with farmers getting billions in social welfare from the government to make up for money lost on donald trump’s trade policies, then seems to be upset when restaurant owners and workers need that same assistance.
For the millionth time, if the virus is still prevalent in public areas, people will not go out to spend money—- regardless of what the current social distancing rules are. Personally, if I was going out to eat now (which I am not DUMB enough to do) I would only frequent those businesses with the stricter rules, and those restaurants which enforce those stricter social distancing rules. Otherwise, I’m exiting before paying the bill and telling police (if they are called on) it was a personal safety issue. I’m not rewarding businesses that put their staffs’ lives in danger and their staffs’ family’s lives in danger. PERIOD
Boy, we now know the “infernal mystery” of why Sammy couldn’t get workers for his business now, don’t we?? Watch Sammy’s face, on the day he’s told he’ll have to work for 2 weeks as waiter in a busy restaurant with no social distancing rules. You’ll then know what it looks like to see an adult male urinate himself in public.
I support those farmers but making my own meals at home. I guess Sammy is too stupid to cook. He certainly is too stupid to make sure he does not infect the restaurant staff.
Butter, olive oil, garlic, onion, fresh tomatoes, bell peppers and squash. Cook up a mess of that and put it on any meat, bean or starch dish. Heaven on a plate.
Oh, and peas. Peas make a nice addition.
Without meaning to be confrontational, is the rise in soybean prices over the recent past, consistent with the prior models presented? Prices seem to be in the $10.00/bushel range currently. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price
Having quit smoking over 40 years ago, I support no-smoking airlines, restaurants and other public gathering areas.
That chart takes spot prices back some 14 years. This recent blip is really not that much compared to earlier volatility. This increase was raised by one of the Usual Suspects who had predicted $10 prices to reign as early as last summer but hey.
I suspect based on other stories that this is a temporary increase. But we will see.
What I remember very clearly, as if it was yesterday is the majority opinion in the state I grew up in, it was almost like declaring you were communist to say that smoking shouldn’t be allowed anywhere in inside offices. even when they had rooms designated as smoking areas or an area outside designated for smoking people got angry about it. My father was very sensitive about smoking. And my father rarely showed emotions on his exterior. One way to get him riled pretty easily was to get him on the subject of cigarette smoking. My paternal grandfather was a pretty big smoker. He died in his late 50s. My Dad never talked about it, but I know it hit him hard. It was a heart attack, which there is no doubt those cigarettes played a part in, if not a major factor. But see…….. my Dad’s Dad, was not as smart as Menzies’s Dad, Menzie’s Dad got that through no fault of his own, through secondary cigarette smoke. My father’s father had a choice and chose to take on that risk factor. And he paid the price to—but one he could have avoided. Even back then, you had to think that on some subconscious level at least people knew sucking burning ashes containing tar into their lungs probably wasn’t good for their health and went ahead on doing it anyway.
People talk about “the good old days”. Sometimes I watch movies from the 1980s and feel a nostalgia for some things of those times. Sometimes I watch 1970s films, and even 1950s films/shows I miss certain things. But as far as America’;s culture on cigarettes, those were not “the good old days”. Especially as it relates to office and university area culture. Those things are better now than they’ve ever been.
My father lived into his octogenarian years, he claimed he never smoked or even took a drag on a cigarette even once. It’s hard to believe he never took one smoke, but it was a rare time my father ever lied to me. I was in my late 20s before I had my first cigarette. I smoked when I drank during my time over in China. I would only have 3-4 cigarettes when drinking. Whatever the reason I never got addicted. I stopped cold turkey when I came back to America, and one of the rare people who never even gets the slightest itch for nicotine, with the possible exception of when I’m drinking, when I think for a short passing moment a single cigarette would go nice with the drunk. But it’s really an asinine thought.
2nd to last sentence should read “with the drink”. I’d really wonder if that wasn’t some Freudian slip if the “u” key wasn’t right by the “i” key.
Be interesting to see what this looks like in 3 months. My guess it improves.
Oh, dear. Whatever will Bill de Blasio do? He should ask Gov. Cuomo.
Still hiding in your mom’s basement? Now if you walked the streets of my Brooklyn neighborhood you would people eating out socially distancing as the tables have taken over 5th Street.
But I do hope your mom finally gets out to the grocery store and buy you oatmeal for breakfast. Even though she is risking her life so you can stay safe in your little hole.
Over the past 28 days, NY has averaged 4.6 deaths per day as compared to 10.6 for Bruce Hall’s state. And this stupid jacka$$ thinks he has the right to mock our leaders? Seriously?
I can understand why Brucie boy lets his mom risk her life for groceries so he can hide in the basement.
But wait Brucie boy thinks his governor is actually doing too much to figure this virus in his state. He prefers the Florida model where the daily death count has averaged 105 over the past 4 weeks.
Did I say Bruce Hall is a really stupid little boy?
PGL, cites the new NYC Re and HIT date, and doesn’t even understand the meaning of his comment. He still believes Fauci over Rand Paul even while living within the herd. I certainly hope, due to your personal concern, you take advantage of the out door seating at restaurants especially during Jan and Feb 2021. Why risk that ole indoor restaurant when outdoors is still available.?
you should listen to fauci over paul. fauci is the expert. paul is not even a college graduate.
CoRev is allergic to anyone who knows what he is talking about which is why he abhors Fauci. No – given him some witch doctor and CoRev will follow his medical advice to a tee.
Re: scientific expertise: Dr. Paul, Dr. Sammy, and Dr. CoRev would rank considerably below my three favorite non doctor doctors: Dr. Moe, Dr. Larry, and Dr. Curly.
Gee CoRev – you have moved the goal posts on this discussion so far no one knows where to run the damn ball. Rand Paul is an idiot but al least he is not as dumb as you are.
“PGL, cites the new NYC Re and HIT date”
I cited no such information but of course CoRev has gone so insane that he just sees things in his warped little mind. Get professional help CoRev.
PGL, since we have been talking about the herd immunity of NY, and more specifically the threshold where it goes below 1, let’s compare NY with FL. 9/29 FL = 0.94 and NY = 1.11. I hope after a weeks worth of discussion, you understand what that means, but I have no confidence that your do.
One state is doinge better than the other at reaching herd immunity and it isn’t NY.
Simnle concepts such as lagging indicators seem to elude the worst analyst in the world.
CoRev FWIW, rt.live reports that NY’s Rt effective rate of transmission has been greater than 1.00 ever since 11 August. Can you explain that result if Sen. Rand Paul is right in his belief that NY has already achieved herd immunity?
BTW, just to clear up any misunderstanding you might have about HIT. It is not the level at which most people understand “herd immunity”. When people imagine herd immunity they usually envision a level such that enough people have resistance so that the virus is almost extinct and the chances of catching it are extremely slight. When people hear the term “herd immunity” that’s what they frequently have in mind. An example might help. Let’s take the simple case in which the R-naught for COVID is 2.4, which works out to an HIT of 58.3% of the population. With an R-naught of 2.4 and a mean period during which a person is infectious of 10 days, and a US population of 321 million, that means the HIT would be achieved after 187.1 million people became infected. However, the curve would not flatten out to something that people would regard as “herd immunity” until 273.6 million people were infected. In other words, you really need about 85% of the population to become infected before the rate of new infections noticeably asymptotes. The “herd immunity threshold” is just that…a threshold value that signals when the rate of new infections will start to decay. It does not mean that the risk is low enough that anyone would consider it as providing meaningful herd immunity. People won’t start going to restaurants until long after we reach the HIT. That won’t happen until roughly 85% of the population has either acquired immunity naturally or from a vaccine. Only then will things return to normal.
2slugs, an excellent of why we have been talking around this subject for the past week: “BTW, just to clear up any misunderstanding you might have about HIT. It is not the level at which most people understand “herd immunity”. When people imagine herd immunity they usually envision a level such that enough people have resistance so that the virus is almost extinct and the chances of catching it are extremely slight.”
Most people are represented in the comments here, and do not understand that HIT is the point where that can be calculated. You start off with “…NY’s Rt effective rate of transmission has been greater than 1.00 ever since 11 August.” then use an analogy of R0 “… the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.” (My previous Wiki reference).
If you want to estimate the number of vaccine doses needed or a worst case scenario for an infection then R0 is appropriate. If you want to estimate the effect of health care policy or the likely heterogeneity of a population (herd) the Rt is appropriate. You were almost there after Rick Strykers comment, until that arrogance again reared its ugly head.
Also your definition of the “herd” is the US population and the herd definition in the Rand Paul/Fauci was NYC. Yano PGL’s herd.
This description within your comment: “The “herd immunity threshold” is just that…a threshold value that signals when the rate of new infections will start to decay. It does not mean that the risk is low enough that anyone would consider it as providing meaningful herd immunity. “, shows you finally understand the core of the discussion. It still appears your TDS will not allow NY’s good news to be accepted.
Please when citing a new reference provide the link, or is it so good that its better to hide it? https://rt.live/us/NY 09/27/20 Rt 1.03 where it has been for nearly the whole month of September. Do we need to talk about error bars? Why not note the difference from Rt 4.0 to 1.03?
Finally, you asked: “Can you explain that result if Sen. Rand Paul is right in his belief that NY has already achieved herd immunity?” Sure, some schools opened up, and people are getting lock down fatigue.
It’s regrettable that they both were inaccurate/lazy in their use of terms, because Rand Paul referenced an actual study which talked about Rt and Fauci had NO REFERENCE. Which best supported his position? If you go back to my original comment on this subject you will see that was my position then.
I’m quite disappointed that you fell into the same pattern. Rt does not equal R0 and the fact you know that does not excuse your attempts to confuse them and cover for the ignoranti.
CoRev Rt does not equal R0 and the fact you know that does not excuse your attempts to confuse them and cover for the ignoranti.
You have memory problems. I had quite a few arguments with Rick Stryker in which I pointed out the difference between R-naught and Rt. I am very much aware of the difference.
Please when citing a new reference provide the link,
Since the link to rt.live has been mentioned on this site more times than I can count, I just assumed that everyone with a pulse was already aware of it. Do I need to provide a link to the FRED homepage? Or the BEA homepage? Again, given your age and failing memory, perhaps I should have linked to the rt.live site for the umpteenth plus one time.
Most people are represented in the comments here, and do not understand that HIT is the point where that can be calculated.
I don’t understand your comment. There are different ways to calculate HIT. In the standard SIR categorical model the R-naught value is used to estimate the HIT.
Also your definition of the “herd” is the US population and the herd definition in the Rand Paul/Fauci was NYC
No. In that exchange Rand Paul was referring to cross-reactivity immunity, not persistent hetero-HIT. Two very different things and not at all related. Cross-reactivity immunity is purely biologically related and has nothing to do with locale. Rand Paul was arguing that because everyone everywhere has been exposed to other coronaviruses, and because he believed that NYC had already reached a cross-reactivity herd immunity level, that same lesson could be applied everywhere. Hence, we should be able to dispense with efforts to limit spread and just let the country rush to a similarherd immunity level. That’s what Rand Paul was arguing. That’s an insane policy recommendation given the thinness of the empirical data and the lack of peer-reviewed controlled clinical trials. The definition of “herd immunity” in the persistent hetero-HIT model is based on a combination of biological heterogeneity in the infectiousness of certain populations and in the heterogeneity of social interactions. The persistent hetero-HIT model argues against overdispersion of the virus due to “super-spreaders” and instead says that differences in biological and social interaction factors can be described by imaginary “walls” that persistently prevent the kind of homogeneity of infectiousness and social interactions assumed in the standard categorical HIT model.
Sure, some schools opened up, and people are getting lock down fatigue.
Except that in Rand’s cross-reactivity immunity theory the fact that schools opened up and people are getting lockdown fatigue should not increase the spread. That’s the whole point of a biologically based cross-reactivity immunity!!! And in the case of persistent hetero-HIT, opening up schools and people getting lockdown fatigue undermines the assumption of “persistent” heterogeneity. That’s why the authors of your favorite paper said that the persistence of heterogeneity was “fragile”:
However, this type of immunity is fragile as it wanes over time if the pattern of social interactions changes substantially.
In other words, if you want to accept Rand’s cross-reactivity of immunity theory, then you cannot explain NYC’s (and Europe’s) spike in COVID cases. And if you want to accept the persistent hetero-HIT theory, then you have to agree that the lower herd immunity threshold only hold if (and only if) you also maintain strict lockdown conditions that prevent fragile persistence to collapse.
notice how 2slugs presents a very coherent argument. if you read corev, your head starts to spin with the gibberish. even if he were correct in an argument (hypothetical, does not occur in reality), nobody could understand due the sloppiness and incoherence of his writings. reading a corev response makes me want to seek out a dentist for a root canal. his responses are not even wrong, they are simply incoherent.
baffling It’s always been that way with CoRev. He forgets from one week to the next what position he was arguing. Eventually he comes around to agreeing with his opponent under the mistaken view that he has converted his opponent to his view. He has a pretty superficial understanding of issues, so he is unable to think things through. And he rarely reads his own links in anything other than a superficial way. What motivates him is his pride. He cannot accept the fact that some liberal might know more than he knows. Just keep in mind that he voted for Nixon twice, still believes the Iraq War was a good idea, and still believes Saddam has nukes hidden away in the desert.
2slugs, “You have memory problems. I had quite a few arguments with Rick Stryker in which I pointed out the difference between R-naught and Rt. I am very much aware of the difference.” Then quit confusing/misusing them: “…HIT. It is not the level at which most people understand “herd immunity”. When people imagine herd immunity they usually envision a level such that enough people have resistance so that the virus is almost extinct and the chances of catching it are extremely slight.” WE ARE/HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT Rt AND NOT “… a level such that enough people have resistance so that the virus is almost extinct …”. Nor was Rand Paul.
As for the cross reactivity issue the two studies did not refute each other. The were looking at different spectra of immune reactions. Paul’s study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.20.160499v1
Fauci’s study: https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa593/5907985
RE: Rtlive.com, remember some of us have not been active. You know better than making assumptions and then being an a$$ when it is questioned.
Your conflating studies and claims when you say: “Except that in Rand’s cross-reactivity immunity theory the fact that schools opened up and people are getting lockdown fatigue should not increase the spread.” The study, AFAIK, neither did Paul claim that, and YES, “lockdown fatigue should increase the spread.” until Rt=0. it’s the whole reason for defining heterogeneity in populations.
I agree with this: ” then you have to agree that the lower herd immunity threshold only hold if (and only if) you also maintain strict lockdown conditions that prevent fragile persistence to collapse.”
Do you even understand the value of the Rt calculations and heterogeneity analyses? From the wiki link: “Effective reproduction number
In reality, varying proportions of the population are immune to any given disease at any given time….” Some estimates range from 20 to 40%. Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
From the Rt calculations and heterogeneity analyses we can determine the value of specific policy implementations and when and how they may be best used.
That’s why I didn’t want to get into any general policy discussion.
CoRev RE: Rtlive.com, remember some of us have not been active.
Several of us here have linked to rt.live long after you returned from your banishment. You’re just an old man who can’t remember what he had for breakfast this morning.
As for the cross reactivity issue the two studies did not refute each other.
I’m tired of your posting links you’ve never read and then expecting the rest of us to explain what they mean. If you’re going to post a link, then you should be able to explain it in a fair amount of depth using your own words.
The study, AFAIK, neither did Paul claim that,
Then you weren’t listening. The reason Rand Paul was trying to sell his cross-reactivity stuff was because he wants to end all COVID restrictions and open things up to where they were before the pandemic. If you don’t understand that, then you’re the only person on planet Earth who doesn’t. And I seriously doubt that Fauci lost his temper with Rand Paul because they both believed the two studies did not contradict each other. You bet. Just sweet harmony in the halls of Congress.
YES, “lockdown fatigue should increase the spread.” until Rt=0. it’s the whole reason for defining heterogeneity in populations.
Now you’re misremembering what your earlier arguments were. A few days ago you were arguing that your favorite paper on persistent hetero-HIT justified opening things up. At the time you incorrectly thought that Sen. Paul was referring to that study and not the cross-reactivity study. Your brain is shot. And the virus isn’t extinct when the Rt=0 for a heterogeneous population; it’s extinct when the Rt goes to zero for a homogeneous population.
From the Rt calculations and heterogeneity analyses we can determine the value of specific policy implementations and when and how they may be best used.
That’s why I didn’t want to get into any general policy discussion.
The only reason for posting on this blog is to argue policy options. If you agree with most of us here that our politicians (and especially GOP politicians) relaxed restrictions too soon and that governments should mandate face masks and social distancing, then we can all be happy and end these ridiculous arguments. Then you and I can agree that sammy is clueless because sammy is recommending policy changes. And we can also agree that Sen. Rand Paul is out to lunch.
Do you even understand the value of the Rt calculations and heterogeneity analyses? From the wiki link: “Effective reproduction number
Am I supposed to believe that you do?
When are “cases” not cases?
• https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1310588455395696640
• https://time.com/5880255/covid-19-tests-types/
So, the question is: what percentage of overall testing is polymerase chain reaction? That’s relevant because so much of the current testing is on asymptomatic persons which means that they may have been exposed to COVID-19 at one time, but are not necessarily actively infectious.
That’s why I continue to argue that the only two relevant metrics are hospitalizations and deaths. If those continue to fall, the epidemic may be “spreading”, but is not “out of control” as it was in New York City.
Funny that you focus on the governor of Florida. Daily death counts in his state remain over 100 and yet this incompetent boob is going for full reopening. Stay in your basement Brucie boy and let your mom risk her life so you can have groceries.
Once again the village idiot Bruce Hall provides links he has not bothered to read. Note how the moron that is the governor of Florida is suggesting people who test positive with PCR may not be a problem after all. But now read what the Time story said:
‘The majority of COVID-19 testing happening in the U.S. right now uses polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. These tests detect disease by looking for traces of the virus’ genetic material on a sample most often collected via a nose or throat swab. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) considers PCR tests the “gold standard” of COVID-19 testing, but, like all tests, they’re not perfect. Studies have suggested as many as 30% of COVID-19 PCR test results are inaccurate. (For comparison, the CDC in 2018 estimated that rapid flu tests have about the same rate of incorrect results.) With COVID-19 tests, false negatives seem to be much more common than false positives—so if you get a positive result, you very likely do have the virus. If you get a negative result but have coronavirus symptoms or recently encountered someone sick with the virus, you should still self-isolate until symptoms subside.’
Just the opposite advice coming from that stupid governor of Florida.
Come on Bruce – stop pretending your links support your Trumpian positions as they don’t. Most of us learned to read in grade school but clearly you did not.
That’s why I continue to argue that the only two relevant metrics are hospitalizations and deaths.
Why are you prescribing big government forbid testing? I thought you guys were all about “freedom” and “capitalism.” Taking tests that might or might not be effective is the capitalist solution. I thought big government should get out of the way for entrepreneurs? No?
U.S. District Judge William Stickman IV, who was appointed by President Trump, sided with plaintiffs that included hair salons, drive-in movie theaters, a farmer’s market vendor, a horse trainer and several Republican officeholders in their lawsuit against Wolf, a Democrat, and his health secretary.
The ruling found that Wolf’s restrictions that required people to stay at home, placed size limits on gatherings and ordered “non-life-sustaining” businesses to shut down were unconstitutional.
The Wolf administration’s pandemic policies have been overreaching, arbitrary and violated citizens’ constitutional rights, Stickman wrote in his ruling.
The governor’s efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus “were undertaken with the good intention of addressing a public health emergency,” Stickman wrote. “But even in an emergency, the authority of government is not unfettered.”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-coronavirus-restrictions-deemed-unconstitutional-federal-judge-rules
This is even more egregious because the restrictions are implemented by executive fiat, rather than legislative action. It has led to a situation that you can buy products at large stores, such as Walmart, while small stores that sell the exact same products are closed. Where church gatherings are banned, but the governor can march at a BLM protest of 20,000 people. Where Nancy Pelosi can get her hair done, while the peasants cannot. Where government gyms for government employees are open, but the public ones are not. For 6 months, with the threat of being open ended in time. We government executives will let you all know when you can have your freedoms back.
One district judge. Let’s see if this lower court ruling survives appeal. And why did you skip this link in your story:
Trump slams Bill de Blasio for telling New Yorkers to enjoy ‘beautiful’ day in NYC
Trump wanted us to stay at home? Sort of contradictory. Oh yea – Trump said if I went to the park I might get beat up. I ran in the park early morning and went back later. Lot of New Yorkers peacefully enjoying ourselves and not one bad dude. So Trump is also a liar. But hey – old news.
sammy, if the usa were subjected to an ebola outbreak, do you still believe the response should be to NOT shut things down, but simply let the virus play itself out?
Sammy”s against “executive fiat”? Bet he doesn’t have a problem with ANY of the 176 (and counting) executive orders issued by his favorite president.
Sammy if you qualify, , are you looking forward to that $200 prescription gift card Trump will be sending to Medicare recipients? By executive fiat. Without any congressional approval?
Carry on, Sammy.
The head of the CDC has had it with the lies:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/nbc-everything-trumps-covid-adviser-says-is-false-proclaims-cdc-director
Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Robert Redfield was overheard on an airplane candidly expressing his real feelings on Friday, revealing to all his dim view of President Trump’s new favorite COVID-19 adviser, NBC reported. “Everything he says is false,” Redfield said of Dr. Scott Atlas, a neurologist who hasn’t practiced medicine since 2012. Before joining the White House’s coronavirus task force in August 2020, Atlas had not spent time on epidemiology but rather on advocacy against “socialized medicine.” An NBC News reporter overheard Redfield discussing Atlas while on a flight from Atlanta to Washington D.C. After the flight landed, Redfield confirmed to NBC that he was discussing Atlas. Atlas has faced widespread criticism for advocating a contrarian approach to managing the virus while lacking epidemiological expertise, recommending, for example, that all schools be reopened.
Yea – we know Atlas is a Trumpian stooge who cannot be trusted. So good for Redfield. But come on man – the lies of Altas are nothing more than common fare for our Usual Suspects.
I am of the view that certain activities — bars, nightclubs, restaurants, movies and air travel, among others — will not materially recover before there is a vaccine widely distributed. That 87% of restaurants could not pay full rent in August vs 80% in June doesn’t seem like much of a change, really, but the effects are cumulative. Not being able to pay rent for a month is one thing, not being able to pay for nine months, something entirely different.
So let’s have a rent holiday until April 2021. Like the NYC landlords might not be able to go to the Hamptons every weekend. Awwww!
Sammy give up the dialectical stuff. your just mad because Trump came off as a bumbling idiot in March. I agree, the lockdowns and stay at home orders were a poor response. But Donald Trump basically led govs. to do that.
waiting to see corev and sammy writhing on the ground from a taser like the woman in ohio.
Divide 200,000 Covid deaths by 350,000,000 population and you get .0006 or 6 in 10,000. Further 90%+ of those deaths have comorbidities that may have killed them in the near future anyway.
6% of those deaths are attributed to COVID alone, so 12,000 deaths nationwide. Auto accidents account for 40,000 deaths per year (and 4 million injuries). We can stop these 40,000 deaths immediately by banning all automobile and truck traffic. We don’t. Why?
6 in 10,000 is the same thing as 600 per million. Which is very high as compared to places like South Korea, New Zealand, Canada, etc etc But do try to spin this away with more meaningless intellectual garbage.
“Further 90%+ of those deaths have comorbidities that may have killed them in the near future anyway.”
This is the Bruce Hall view that if an old person dies, it does not count. It seems Sammy would have no problem if his mom died so long as he gets to eat out tonight.
it is a dishonest argument to take 200,000 covid deaths and say only 12,000 actually count. very dishonest. and lacks any ethical or moral obligations as well. sammy, you lost your restaurant business because nobody wanted to work for you. probably because your workers thought of you as a monster.
The latest (2020Q1) BEA data shows the food service industry represents 2.1% of GDP and the calculated Domar weight is only a little higher at 3.2%. Not much of a surprise since the restaurant industry is downstream of most other industries. This suggests that the cost to keep the restaurant industry afloat for one year would be something like $700B, and that assumes no carryout or outdoor service. Just a shutdown. Not chump change, but far from crushing given current interest rates.
@ 2slugbaits
This is completely unrelated to this blog thread but I was reading this tonight and thought Menzie, you, and commenter AS would get as much a kick out of reading this as I did.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/science/foot-surveying-metrology-dennis.html
Unfortunately, i say this. They should take personal responsibility for the their actions. The Chamber of Lack of Commerce & the NFIB supported Trump. As the good book says, “you reap what you sow.”