# Using One’s Eyes

A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:

I too have an inference that the daily data HAS NOT changed enough in the provisional period to change trend trajectory.

Provisional data extends way back (for the version released 9/23, footnotes indication the provisional nature of the data extends back to February 1st!), but usually one can compare vintages to see that big revisions go back for about a month and a half from date of release. Here’s a graph of the data referred to, the estimated excess fatalities according to various vintages of CDC data:

Figure 1: Excess fatalities, 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations.

Using the 8/28 vintage of CDC data, excess fatalities are declining as of 8/8; using 9/23 vintage, excess fatalities are rising or flat as of 8/8…

What about CDC tabulation of reported Covid-19 fatalities?

Figure 2: Covid-19 fatalities, 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations.

Using the 8/28 vintage of CDC data, officially designated Covid-19 fatalities are declining as of 8/1; using 9/23 vintage, excess fatalities are rising or flat as of 8/1…

For me, this suggests that one should not be blinded by one’s priors. One should look at the data, consider the limitations of that data, and proceed accordingly, sometimes with caution. Doesn’t mean throw away the data. It means think about the data.

## 62 thoughts on “Using One’s Eyes”

1. pgl

“this suggests that one should not be blinded by one’s priors.”

To be more precise, the Usual Suspects are blinded by Kelly Anne Conway’s priors.

2. pgl

After both Pelosi and Biden noted the rush to put Ms. Rightwing on the Supreme Court is part of a Republican mission to end the Affordable Care Act, we got this crap from Trump:

‘Obamacare will be replaced with a MUCH better, and FAR cheaper, alternative if it is terminated in the Supreme Court. Would be a big WIN for the USA!’

I liked the Manav reply but maybe we should have a few economists note that Trump has no plan. Neither did Romney back in 2012. It is all BS. Of course I bet the DONALD has Jared Kushner working on something as corrupt as it is useless.

3. Dr. Dysmalist

Thank you for this post. I know it must be frustrating to have to make the same point several times but, obviously, some people require a 2×4 to the forehead to learn anything, if they will learn it even then.

When the numbers are subject to such significant revisions, I question whether we should even call them data yet.

And after being shown the previous large revisions, AND cautioned about using the suspect numbers numerous times, it should go without saying that one must not continue to insist that the incomplete numbers illustrate a trend WHEN NO ONE CAN KNOW THAT YET.

Sheesh.

1. CoRev

Dr Dysmalist, fully agree: “When the numbers are subject to such significant revisions, I question whether we should even call them data yet. ” Obviously, not reading completely and comprehending you missed the questions that triggered this latest attack article. To summarize they questioned the validity of using excess deaths as a proxy because of their large revisions, AND the value of any “inferences” from them. After being cautioned about using the suspect “provisional” numbers numerous times, I opined that the “CDC DAILY DEATH DATA” have showed no “such significant revisions”.

Being questioned over using such provisional data has generated this new attack article.

Why is it that liberals/Dems can not accept and misinterpret questioning of their basic beliefs? WE AGREE!

1. pgl

Dr Dysmalist was agreeing with our host as our host was mocking you CoRev. And you agree with him? Interesting. CoRev may not realize WTF this is all about but it seems CoRev is basically mocking himself! OK!

1. pgl

‘Dr. Dysmalist
September 28, 2020 at 2:18 pm
Oh, no. Forget your spin. We most definitely do not agree. For one thing, you are continually full of crap and either cannot or will not recognize it.’

Come on CoRev – stop lying.

2. Dr. Dysmalist

Oh, no. Forget your spin. We most definitely do not agree. For one thing, you are continually full of crap and either cannot or will not recognize it.

1. CoRev

Dr. Dysmalist, WOW! How in G\$\$s little green earth can we not agree when I quoted the portion of your comment to which I agreed? Do you now disagree with yourself? Or are you so threatened that you may have said something to which a conservative agrees that your club membership is endangered?

3. Dr. Dysmalist

CoRev:

You are wrong, yet again, on several counts. First, I have been following the threads. I have seen that you are the one who persists in claiming trends from the numbers which I think are not yet data. And you are the one who again claims that the old numbers are not revised significantly despite proof that you are wrong.

“Why is it that liberals/Dems can not accept and misinterpret questioning of their basic beliefs?” You are the one who consistently and persistently mischaracterises numbers, trends, and actual data when they don’t support your own ideologically based Delusions (capitalization intended).

You obviously think that you are bringing some truth to a hotbed of liberalism but the actual truth is that the hosts and most of the commenters know far, far more about these subjects (math, economics, statistics, and data analysis) than you and the other Usual Suspects will ever know. You are bringing bullshit to a college seminar.

You have had many opportunities over the years to learn more, opportunities which you have thrown away in favor of belligerent ignorance and aggressive arrogance. Don’t forget, several weeks ago, after being shown repeatedly and conclusively that your claims about a downward trend in Covid-19 deaths (at that time) had no basis in reality, you accused us of wishing for more people to die. We were engaged in serious, honest, data analysis/interpretation and, instead of acknowledging your flagrant errors, you resorted to character assassination. Such an egregious breach of protocol and common decency would have rightly earned you a lifetime ban on every other blog I read.

“Why is it that liberals/Dems can not accept and misinterpret questioning of their basic beliefs?” I have 2 better questions for you:

1) When reality contradicts their basic beliefs, why can’t conservatives revise their beliefs to include reality?

2) Why do conservatives always, always engage in projection?

1. CoRev

Wow, Dr Dysmalist, you’ve changed the subject. ” I have seen that you are the one who persists in claiming trends from the numbers which I think are not yet data. ” We again agree, AND THE TRENDS WERE MENZIE’S NOT MINE. This article was done because I questioned its use.

How can it be projection when the salient point of agreement is your quote?

Its Ok though, you wrote enough ad hominems to protect your membership.

1. pgl

“Dr Dysmalist, you’ve changed the subject.”

No – he just called you on your persistent lies.

Seriously CoRev? Grow up little boy.

2. baffling

and yet more incoherent commentary from corev. he gets angry, his blood pressure spikes, and the brain processes gibberish to the keyboard. you cannot respond rationally, because most times corev is not even wrong. he is simply incoherent.

4. pgl

Did I hear this right? Trump has paid only \$750 in Federal income taxes since 2004? \$50 per your is less than most blue collar workers pay in fees to H&R Crock.

Now I know most liberals will scream Trump is a tax cheat. But may not as he is so incredibly incompetent that it is reasonable this moron did run his businesses into the ground. He certainly has done this to our nation.

1. 2slugbaits

pgl Well, if you can believe Forbes, then he did run his businesses into the ground. According to Forbes his net wealth in 2016 was estimated to be \$3.7B. Forbes estimates his net wealth in 2020 at \$2.5B. He would have done better if he had put his money in a Xmas club savings account. Forbes currently has him ranked 339th in wealth.

1. pgl

Trump is protesting that the NY Times story is “fake news”. Of course Trump could clear all of this up by finally releasing his tax returns from 2000 to 2019.

1. baffling

you have to give it to trump. he has conned nearly half the us population over the past five years. there are few con men who could boast of such numbers. included in these marks are rick stryker, corev, bruce hall and peak trader. of course they won’t fess up to being conned, but conned they were. the emperor has no clothes. and my guess is that trump is not even a billionaire. even drudge seems to agree. hey rick stryker, how does it feel to pay more in federal taxes than trump? rube.

2. Barkley Rosser

No no no, pgl. This is a sign of incompetence on the part of Trump tax accontants. I mean a really capable billionaire should be able to hire tax accountants who make sure he pays zero every year, indeed should be able to get him a nice refund like that \$72 million one he got for 2010, although that may have been excessive given that the IRS is wickedly challenging it. They could probably get away with a nice refund of just a couple of mill per year.

In any case, this looks to me that Trump is not very good at hiring tax accountants that he is paying so much. I am quite surprised, :-).

5. ltr

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/09/are-covid-19-deaths-falling

September 24, 2020

Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling?

Menzie Chinn

[ The answer to the question, which took a while to find a reasonably clear answer to, is coronavirus deaths are falling in those countries that are experiencing a second wave of infections. However the declines are highly variable country to country, relative to the earlier death rates. Death rates have “appeared” and still “appear” to be class related in relatively high death rate countries. ]

6. Moses Herzog

For the record Menzie, I forgive you for any “ad hominem” attacks you make, except against me of course because of my ongoing burden of being perfect. Otherwise, of course, I’d let you give me a gut punch or two.

7. ltr

September 27, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases ( 7,321,343)
Deaths ( 209,453)

India

Cases ( 6,073,348)
Deaths ( 95,574)

Mexico

Cases ( 726,431)
Deaths ( 76,243)

France

Cases ( 538,569)
Deaths ( 31,727)

UK

Cases ( 434,969)
Deaths ( 41,988)

Germany

Cases ( 286,338)
Deaths ( 9,534)

Cases ( 153,125)
Deaths ( 9,268)

China

Cases ( 85,351)
Deaths ( 4,634)

8. ltr

September 27, 2020

Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

US   ( 632)
UK   ( 618)
Mexico   ( 590)
France   ( 486)

Germany   ( 114)
India   ( 69)
China   ( 3)

Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.7%, 5.9% and 10.5% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher.

9. ltr

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/index.html

September 28, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 21 new COVID-19 cases

The Chinese mainland registered 21 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Monday.

This is the 43-consecutive-day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland. No deaths were reported Monday while 12 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,372 with a death toll of 4,634, while 367 asymptomatic patients are currently under medical observation.

Chinese mainland new imported cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/img/10f83d1c01dd4ae893e606483957dfd3/10f83d1c01dd4ae893e606483957dfd3.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/img/a12b4757f86c4a2b941a9880cc693eab/a12b4757f86c4a2b941a9880cc693eab.jpeg

10. ltr

There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 43 days.  Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.  Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.  There are as a result 185 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 3 cases are classed as serious or critical.

1. Barkley Rosser

ltr,

There you go again with your claim that there have been no coronavirus deaths in “mainland China” since May, when I have pointed out there are sources drawing on the WHO reporting 11 such deaths in just the first two weeks of September. You have assiduously avoided replying to that or showing that is wrong.

Perhaps what is going on here is that all those deaths are people who got it somewhere else and arrived in PRC from abroad so that it is only deaths due to locally transmission that have not happened since May? If that is the case, you would improve your credibility if you clarified this matter. Otherwise, just repeating the same claim that has evidence showing it appears to be false makes you look like a propagandist spouting fake news.

11. ltr

September 27, 2020

Coronavirus

India

Cases   ( 6,073,348)
Deaths   ( 95,574)

Deaths per million   ( 69)

There were over 85,000 new coronavirus cases recorded in India on September 27.  New cases have climbed and stayed above 80,000 daily for weeks.  The distressing point that should be made is just how undeveloped public health or healthcare infrastructure is in India, for all the general growth the last couple of decades.  Indian infrastructure in general is poorly developed, as Amartya Sen pointed to in the wake of being awarded a Nobel Prize in economics, but there was little response to Sen from development specialists and even express criticism from Indian economists.  Now, we find India in any day recording about as many or more coronavirus cases as China has recorded in all.

Undeveloped Indian infrastructure has presented daunting problems in national efforts to limit the coronavirus spread.

India began the year as the third largest economy, and so far has experienced a fierce recession that because of structural dislocations domestically is going to take a considerable time to recover from.  This means an important driver of the international economy has been lost already and will continue to be lost for a considerable time, and this will make an international recovery that much slower.

12. ltr

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/world/asia/covid-19-india-children-school-education-labor.html

September 27, 2020

As Covid-19 Closes Schools, the World’s Children Go to Work
Former students are taking illegal and often dangerous jobs in India and other developing countries, potentially rolling back years of progress in social mobility and public health.
By Jeffrey Gettleman and Suhasini Raj

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/world/asia/india-coronavirus-farmer-suicides-lockdown.html

September 8, 2020

‘The Lockdown Killed My Father’: Farmer Suicides Add to India’s Virus Misery
Farm bankruptcies and debts have been the source of misery in India for decades. But experts say the suffering has reached new levels in the pandemic.
Photographs and Text by Karan Deep Singh

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/world/asia/india-economy-coronavirus.html

September 5, 2020

Coronavirus Crisis Shatters India’s Big Dreams
The country’s ambitions to become a global power, lift its poor and update its military have been set back by a sharp economic plunge, soaring infections and a widening sense of malaise.
By Jeffrey Gettleman

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/31/world/asia/india-economy-gdp.html

August 31, 2020

India’s Economy Shrank by Nearly 24 Percent Last Quarter
It’s the biggest decline of any major economy. And economists say once the impact on the country’s vast “informal” workforce is taken into account, the damage might be even worse.
By Sameer Yasir and Jeffrey Gettleman

13. ltr

A reader asked for an explanation of the Chinese emergency use of coronavirus vaccines:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/WHO-backs-China-s-emergency-use-of-COVID-19-vaccines-U9cLOQzEQw/index.html

September 28, 2020

WHO backs China’s emergency use of COVID-19 vaccines

The World Health Organization (WHO) supported China’s decision to vaccinate high-risk people against coronavirus in July this year while clinical trials were still under way, a Chinese health official said on Friday.

China launched its emergency program in July, having communicated with the WHO in late June, according to Zheng Zhongwei, a National Health Commission official.

Read more: China approves emergency usage of COVID-19 vaccines, official says *

Hundreds of thousands of essential medical workers and other limited groups of people considered at high risk of infection have been given the vaccine. “We’ve made it very clear that the COVID-19 vaccines we put into emergency use are safe,” Zheng said. “Their safety can be ensured but their efficacy is yet to be determined.”

“After the approval, on June 29, China’s State Council made a communication with the relevant representatives of the WHO Office in China, and obtained support and understanding from the WHO,” Zheng told a news conference.

Countries have autonomy to issue emergency use authorization for any health product according to the national regulations and legislations, Dr. Mariangela Simão, assistant director-general at the WHO, said at a news conference in Geneva on Friday.

WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan said earlier this month that emergency use authorization for coronavirus vaccine is a “temporary solution,” and that the long-term solution lay in completion of Phase 3 trials.

At least three vaccine candidates, including two developed by state-backed China National Biotec Group (CNBG) and one from Sinovac Biotech now in Phase 3 trials overseas, are included in the emergency use program.

A fourth experimental vaccine developed by CanSino Biologics was approved to be used in the Chinese military in June.

1. baffling

“We’ve made it very clear that the COVID-19 vaccines we put into emergency use are safe,” Zheng said. “Their safety can be ensured but their efficacy is yet to be determined.”
exactly how can they ensure the vaccine is safe? in what studies and how many people?

1. pgl

“At least three vaccine candidates, including two developed by state-backed China National Biotec Group (CNBG) and one from Sinovac Biotech now in Phase 3 trials overseas, are included in the emergency use program.”

So these 3 have passed phase II trials but not phase III trials. We do not really know if they are safe.

‘A fourth experimental vaccine developed by CanSino Biologics was approved to be used in the Chinese military in June.’

Oh my – we truly have no idea on this one.

1. baffling

this is where the line divides eastern and western medicine. in china, they can force the military to act as the guinea pigs for the vaccine. and perhaps other population groups. this permits a faster process to be sure. but is it ethical? the us went through such episodes 100 years ago. i think in another decade, when people look back on how the vaccine progressed through to approval, we will find some unpleasant realities of who was made “guinea pig” around the world.

14. ltr

September 28, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases   ( 233,118)
Deaths   ( 1,499)

Deaths per million   ( 163)

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

15. ltr

Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus in June, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 233,118 cases in the small country as compared to 85,372 in all through all of mainland China.

Israel has unfortunately doubled and gone far beyond double the number of coronavirus cases in mainland China. The data are not a singular matter but surely do reflect public health structure weaknesses. The need then is to look beyond the openings and examine what public health structure weaknesses have allowed for such an infection spread after what had appeared to be containment.

1. CoRev

ltr, “The need then is to look beyond the openings and examine what public health structure weaknesses have allowed for such an infection spread after what had appeared to be containment.” That’s an important study. If China actually agrees and if China actually fully participates.

1. CoRev

Speaking of idiots Baffled again shows his ignorance. I guess in Baffled-world they do not do nor understand COMPARATIVE studies. He’s comparing Israel results with China’s.

1. baffling

china need not agree to anything for israel to assess the shortcomings in their covid response. china’s cooperation has nothing to do with whether israel had containment and then lost it. ltr was pointing out the fact that israel, at one point, had contained the virus. but they made some poor decisions and actions that lost the containment. same thing in various parts of the usa. this had nothing to do with china, and the comparison is not needed. what an idiot you are corev. just accept you were trying to rant on china, and were completely ignorant of the point of the comment to begin with. quit trying to defend acting like a troll.

2. pgl

Florida is following the Israeli approach. And folks like Sammy, Bruce Hall, and CoRev thinks this is the right thing to do???

16. ltr

Chinese coronavirus vaccines that are being administered on an emergency basis have passed through phase I and phase II testing, with results analyzed and published after review in prime journals. The COVID-19 genome was decoded on January 7. The genome code was given to the World Health Organization and published internationally. Chinese scientists began work on test preparation and vaccine development after January 7. Of the vaccines developed, 4 have been in phase III. The WHO was consulted in June on emergency us of Chinese vaccines that had completed safety testing and were in effectiveness testing or phase III. Emergency administration entails monitoring, and so far there has been no adverse reaction to the vaccines.

17. ltr

The Chinese vaccine that has been developed by CanSino has passed through phase I and phase II tests, with results peer-reviewed and published. This vaccine is considered especially safe, because of the nature of the vaccine, and has been administered on an emergency basis to military personnel. The Chinese, for instance, have the largest contingent of United Nations peacekeeping personnel and these can be subject to significant coronavirus risk where they serve.

1. pgl

A lot of stuff pass phase II to utterly fail during phase III trials. Look – the Trump sycophants may not get this but all scientists do – including those in China.

18. ltr

There you go again with your claim…

[ The vicious bullying of these words is beyond excusing, since I always-continually document the “claims” that I set down. ]

19. ltr

Since December 30-31, I have followed reports on the pneumonia cases that were identified and reported to health authorities in Wuhan and Beijing, and that would by January 7-8 be found by Chinese scientists-physicians to be novel coronavirus cases. I have not missed a day, following Chinese reports on the novel coronavirus and taking notes on the reports:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/index.html

September 28, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 21 new COVID-19 cases

The Chinese mainland registered 21 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Monday.

This is the 43-consecutive-day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland. No deaths were reported Monday while 12 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,372 with a death toll of 4,634, while 367 asymptomatic patients are currently under medical observation.

Chinese mainland new imported cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/img/10f83d1c01dd4ae893e606483957dfd3/10f83d1c01dd4ae893e606483957dfd3.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U92gOwkwmc/img/a12b4757f86c4a2b941a9880cc693eab/a12b4757f86c4a2b941a9880cc693eab.jpeg

As these daily reports show, there has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 43 days. Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent. There are as a result 185 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 3 cases are classed as serious or critical.

20. ltr

The last coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-five-new-COVID-19-cases-two-imported-QyHLF17kwU/index.html

May 17, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 5 new COVID-19 cases, 1 new death

The Chinese mainland reported 3 new domestic COVID-19 cases and 2 new imported ones on Saturday, according to China’s National Health Commission (NHC). One new death was reported.

The commission also reported 12 new asymptomatic patients.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 82,947, the cumulative death toll at 4,634, and 515 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.

The Chinese health authorities said that 8 patients were discharged from hospitals on Saturday, bringing the total number of recovered cases to 78,227….

21. ltr

I have the daily reports on coronavirus cases for the Chinese mainland. I have repeatedly set down the reports because they are so important. I will continue to set down the reports.

22. ltr

Choose a day, I have the report. Notice the same total of deaths on the Chinese mainland on August 31 or 4,634 as the total for September 28 or 4,634:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-31/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-ToxPyLsSWc/index.html

August 31, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases

The Chinese mainland registered 17 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Monday. This is the 15th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.

No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Sunday, while 24 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,048 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 340 asymptomatic patients under medical observation….

23. ltr

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/coronavirus-long-term-effects.html

September 28, 2020

‘It’s Not in My Head’: They Survived the Coronavirus, but They Never Got Well
With 7 million known cases of the coronavirus across the country, more people are suffering from symptoms that go on and on.
By Sarah Mervosh

They caught the coronavirus months ago and survived it, but they are still stuck at home, gasping for breath. They are no longer contagious, but some feel so ill that they can barely walk around the block, and others grow dizzy trying to cook dinner. Month after month, they rush to the hospital with new symptoms, pleading with doctors for answers.

As the coronavirus has spread through the United States over seven months, infecting at least 7 million people, some subset of them are now suffering from serious, debilitating and mysterious effects of Covid-19 that last far longer than a few days or weeks.

This group of patients wrestling with an array of alarming symptoms many months after first getting ill — they have come to call themselves “long-haulers” — are believed to number in the thousands. Their circumstances, still little understood by the medical community, may play a significant role in shaping the country’s ability to recover from the pandemic.

By some estimates, as many as one in three Covid-19 patients will develop symptoms that linger. The symptoms can span a wide range — piercing chest pain, deep exhaustion, a racing heart. Those affected include young and otherwise healthy people. One theory is that an overzealous immune system plays a role.

Some are unable to work. Many may need long-term medical care.

Still, many say their biggest challenge is getting other people simply to believe them.

“There is just a lot of misunderstanding,” said Marissa Oliver, 36, who, long after she experienced classic virus symptoms, dragged herself to an urgent care clinic in New York because she was still struggling to breathe. The medical professional’s advice? Go home and have a glass of wine.

“I started sobbing in the lobby,” Ms. Oliver said, adding that she was misdiagnosed as having anxiety. “I’ve never been this sick in my life.” …

24. ltr

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-UaHGEV3u0g/index.html

September 29, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 12 new COVID-19 cases

The Chinese mainland registered 12 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Tuesday.

This is the 44th consecutive day without domestic transmissions reported on the Chinese mainland. No deaths linked with the coronavirus were reported on Tuesday while 13 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,384 with a death toll of 4,634, while 376 asymptomatic patients are currently under medical observation.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-UaHGEV3u0g/img/ac583dc7432a4002abc6ed864011188a/ac583dc7432a4002abc6ed864011188a.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-UaHGEV3u0g/img/f7fe0b879e2e41ffb489d8dc32c91cab/f7fe0b879e2e41ffb489d8dc32c91cab.jpeg

25. macroduck

Bad new case of noise pollution in the comments section. ltr is pretty clearly a paid Chinese propagandist, joining the Trump propagandists we already have. The volume of old no sense was a problem. There new nonsense makes the problem worse. The good stuff/bad stuff ratio is falling, making the effort to extract value from comments a time suck. Any hope of cutting down on propaganda and slap-fights?

26. ltr

There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. * There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 44 days. Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent. There are as a result 184 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 3 cases are classed as serious or critical.

27. ltr

September 29, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases   ( 235,465)
Deaths   ( 1,523)

Deaths per million   ( 166)

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

28. Bruce Hall

Don’t know if you were using the data I provided in the weekly updates for pgl, but it certainly looks the same.

BTW, Michigan’s governor has finally relented from her murderous policy of putting COVID-infected patients into nursing homes:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/09/30/whitmer-shifts-nursing-home-policy-new-care-and-recover-centers/5874880002/

The governor’s approach to the virus in nursing homes has been the subject of heated debate in the Capitol for months. About 32% of Michigan’s 6,762 COVID-19 deaths have been nursing home residents, according to state data.

Whitmer’s administration has focused on caring for elderly individuals with the virus in isolated areas of existing nursing homes. But GOP lawmakers have pushed for wholly separate facilities that the Democratic governor’s team has resisted, questioning the feasibility of the idea.

29. baffling

seems as though whitmer was simply following the advice out of the white house. bruce hall, if you are critical of whitmer, then you should have equal disdain for the murderous policies coming out of the white house. and yet you support those murderous policies. hack.

1. Bruce Hall

baffling,

I don’t recall the Trump administration ever suggesting that infected elderly COVID-19 patients should be housed in the same facility as other nursing home residents. That seems to be a Cuomo-Whitmer shared ideal. After all, those old people are a drag on the economy.

1. Baffling

Well in trumps words the virus was not a problem, was just the flu and would go away soon since it was contained. There was no need for special precautions according to trump. Whitmer was simply following white house guidance. So your issue is with the white house, bruce.