The national trade deficit is larger than when Trump took office. We don’t know for sure the gap between Wisconsin goods exports and imports. We do know the gap between exports of goods originating in Wisconsin, and imports with destinations in Wisconsin, as recorded in the Customs data.
Figure 1: Difference between exports of goods originating in Wisconsin and imports of goods with destination in Wisconsin (blue), and centered 12 month moving average (red). Source: Bureau of Census via FRED, and author’s calculations.
In Figure 1, I’m doing exactly what I shouldn’t be doing (see *** at end of post):
[T]he Census Bureau would discourage using these state data to calculate state trade balances.
If one looks closely at Figure 1, one sees that there was little change in the gap between Wisconsin originating exports and imports with destination in Wisconsin during the pre-Covid-19 trade war. That is consistent with a near equal decline in Wisconsin goods exports.
Since it doesn’t make sense to include the period encompassing the pandemic, so here is a graph of imports with destination in Wisconsin during the pre-Covid-19 period.
Figure 2: Imports of goods with destination in Wisconsin (blue), and centered 12 month moving average (red). Source: Bureau of Census via FRED, and author’s calculations.
What can we say? At first approximation, imports to Wisconsin seem to fall with tariffs — which makes sense since most of the burden of tariffs seems to have fallen on US users of imported goods.
Figure 3: Exports of goods originating in Wisconsin (blue), and centered 12 month moving average (red). Source: Bureau of Census via FRED, and author’s calculations.
So, if one’s metric were an improvement in the balance between exports originating from, and imports with destinations in, Wisconsin one would be hard pressed to find a substantial improvement.
***An important note: these series do not represent necessarily production in Wisconsin. From the data description:
The series DOES NOT represent the production origin of U.S. export merchandise. In some cases considerable manufactured exports are attributed to states that are known to have little manufacturing capACElity. One reason is that commodities produced by out-of-state suppliers can be shipped from in-state distribution centers. Another factor is shipments of manufactured commodities from in-state warehouses and other distribution centers that are arranged by exporters located out-of-state. In both cases, manufactured exports from the non-industrial state are magnified in the OM series.
In certain cases, the state of destination may not reflect the final location for which the imported goods are destined. Rather for these shipments, the state of destination, as known at the time the entry documentation is filed, may reflect an intermediary, storage or distribution point. From there, these shipments may later be distributed to another location in another state as the ultimate destination. For example, a consolidated shipment of many automobiles may be shipped by the importing company to a distribution point in one state with the intent of later shipping the automobiles to numerous states for final sale.
And Trump made such an effort to favor Wisconsin especially, with one of the few new things in the USMCA rather than NAFTA that was not just adding stuff in the TPP that Canada and Mexico had already agreed to for that agreement the US withdrew from due to Trump was making the Canadians open up their markets more for US dairy products, notably produced in substantial quantities in Wisconsin. But I guess that was not enough to overcome the overall trend.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2019/08/07/wisconsin-farmers-stand-lose-china-halts-purchases-ag-products/1943951001/
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/special-reports/dairy-crisis/2019/09/19/wisconsin-dairy-farms-global-tariffs-trade-wars-hurt-milk-prices-farmers-cheese/1901169001/
https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/special-reports/dairy-crisis/2019/02/21/wisconsin-dairy-farms-failing-milk-prices-fall/2540796002/?utm_source=oembed&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=mainseriesrecirc&utm_content=dairycrisis
https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/special-reports/dairy-crisis/2019/05/16/wisconsin-dairy-farms-closing-milk-prices-drop-economics-get-tough/3508060002/?utm_source=oembed&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=mainseriesrecirc&utm_content=dairycrisis
Yeah….. it is very hard to imagine how much more sweet and generous donald trump could have been to Wisconsinite farmers. Mostly hard to imagine how that could have been if your last name is Rosser and/or you have three #21 chromosomes.
I’m guessing Rosser gets choked up and glassy-eyed looking these trump field trip photos though. Memories to last a lifetime……..
https://images.app.goo.gl/cGbVVfnDLYJQpaea9
https://images.app.goo.gl/ZDTc9CSb3NGVB1nf6
I heard this is going to be part of Barkley Junior’s first PowerPoint presentation for his students in the new year of 2021: “Orange Mammal: Son of Wisconsin”
[ Pay attention kids!!!! This is usually the part in the festivities where Junior tells us he met Nassim Taleb in Rayong Province, and during a conversation he was having with Taleb about “choppers” and “hogs”, (Junior sometimes just calls him “Nick”) Nassim was the first human being to utter the words “comparative advantage”. An amazing moment in economic history, and was later turned into a best-seller self-help book. ]
Moses,
You are continuing to completely lose it. Nothing you have presented here contradicts anything in may simple comment. I followed up without any questioning Menzie’s figure showing Wisconsin not doing well overall as a result of Trump’s trade wars. Then I accurately noted that Trump made special efforts to help the Wisconsin dairy industry in the revision of NAFTA, which he did, obviously looking at trying to get the state to vote for him in the election, which in the end it did not by a 21,000 vote margin or thereabouts. I noted that this was ironic. None of your links or rantings here alter any of that.
As for Taleb,, he is on the board of editors of my current journal, I have published some of his papers in journals I edit, I have written papers on the topic under discussion, one of them with about 100 citations, and indeed he does list me as one of the three living economists he takes seriously, along with Michael Spence and Nouriel Roubini. You can see that on p. 309 of the paperback edition of The Black Swan. But, of course, none of this has anything to do with whether or not Trump was trying to help out the Wisconsin dairy industry by things he negotiated in the USMCA, or that his efforts in the end failed to help Wisconsin out in terms of international trade. I think Macroduck would label this “thread-jacking,” which you do a lot of, Moses.
https://twitter.com/MayaMajueran/status/1345168164405952513
Maya Majueran K @MayaMajueran
The African Continental Free Trade Area trade commenced on 1/1/2021. This will bring together 1.3 billion people in a $3.4 trillion economic bloc. Largest free trade area since the establishment of @wto. Every African country except Eritrea signed AfCFTA, & 34 ratified it.
7:40 PM · Jan 1, 2021
Is there reason to celebrate? “Free trade” is generally a big, fat lie. Trade between countries in a trade agreement generally remains highly regulated. Every trade agreement produces winners and losers, along with a decline in dead-weight economic losses due to trade restrictions. Estimates of the reduction in dead-weight losses are often quite small. The effects on losers can be large. It’s not clear that trade deals always bring large net gains in welfare.
What shows up pretty clearly in imports, exports and the balance (wrongly calculated, tsk, tsk) is an increase in volatility. If no obvious gains in economic measures associated with welfare are generated by a policy, but volitility increases, one has to suspect welfare loss.
January 2, 2021
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 20,904,701)
Deaths ( 358,682)
India
Cases ( 10,324,631)
Deaths ( 149,471)
France
Cases ( 2,643,239)
Deaths ( 64,921)
UK
Cases ( 2,599,789)
Deaths ( 74,570)
Germany
Cases ( 1,771,017)
Deaths ( 34,753)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,437,185)
Deaths ( 126,507)
Canada
Cases ( 590,280)
Deaths ( 15,715)
China
Cases ( 87,093)
Deaths ( 4,634)
January 2, 2021
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 1,096)
US ( 1,080)
France ( 993)
Mexico ( 976)
Canada ( 415)
Germany ( 414)
India ( 108)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 8.8%, 2.9% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-24-new-COVID-19-cases-WK4McNhCqk/index.html
January 3, 2021
Chinese mainland reports 24 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Saturday reported 24 new COVID-19 cases – 8 cases of local transmission and 16 from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Sunday.
The locally transmitted cases were reported in north and northeast China: 4 in Heilongjiang Province, 2 in Liaoning Province, one in Hebei Province and 1 in Beijing.
Moreover, 8 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 269 asymptomatic patients remained under medical observation. No death related to COVID-19 was registered on Saturday, while 12 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has reached 87,117, and the death toll stands at 4,634.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-24-new-COVID-19-cases-WK4McNhCqk/img/73acb1a87a2241748c9c62fac92ed924/73acb1a87a2241748c9c62fac92ed924.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-24-new-COVID-19-cases-WK4McNhCqk/img/64f7cfca69f54d68adcf251dfa655149/64f7cfca69f54d68adcf251dfa655149.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been only limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 395 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 9 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
As for the forming and opening of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), I consider this a profoundly important development spur and opportunity, a chance for a Namibia to become a Denmark or as Nelson Mandela envisioned a Singapore. An African trade union along with the Belt and Road program that includes most African countries, should mean sorely needed infrastructure formation. Look to Ethiopia and find what infrastructure formation is allowing in the way of growth.
Imagine a vast, populous Ethiopia being land-locked, having no rail line to the east coast or rail line to Ghana. Then imagine the trade that becomes possible and necessary with such rail lines. AfCFTA could be and should be as developmentally important as the European Union has been.
https://africa.cgtn.com/2021/01/02/s-africa-encourages-manufacturers-farmers-to-expand-exports-through-intra-african-trade-agreement/
January 2, 2021
S. Africa encourages manufacturers, farmers to expand exports through intra-African trade agreement
South Africa’s Trade and Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel on Friday called on manufacturers and farmers in the country to prepare themselves for opportunities in export markets as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement came into effect Friday.
Patel, while believing the agreement could lead to more employment opportunities, said it could also help manufacturers in South Africa to expand to new markets available in West, Central and East Africa.
“Trade with the rest of the continent is a critical source of output and jobs growth. African countries recognize that industrialization is critical to the development of the continent,” he said.
Patel said the agreement could potentially transform business in Africa though its impact will not be immediate.
“The new Agreement that comes into effect today will take some time to be fully operational but has the potential to be transformative for Africa, breaking our dependence on a neo-colonial pattern of trade that characterized trade,” he said.
He also said this was a chance to build advanced economies and innovative businesses.
“It will take dedication and disciplined implementation over the next few years to fully realize the benefits,” he added.
The free trade agreement, launched in March 2018 in the Rwandan capital city Kigali, has so far gathered 54 African Union member signatories.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa said the African free trade accord has the potential to boost the level of intra-Africa trade by more than 52 percent by the year 2022.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 13 highest and 6 of the 24 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.
Mexico, with more than 1.4 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 13th highest number of cases among all countries. Peru, with more than 1 million cases, has the 5th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 18th highest number among all countries. Mexico was the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 and 125,000 coronavirus deaths.
January 2, 2021
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 1,080) *
Brazil ( 918)
Argentina ( 955)
Colombia ( 856)
Mexico ( 976)
Peru ( 1,138)
Chile ( 871)
Ecuador ( 791)
Bolivia ( 781)
* Descending number of cases
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/world/asia/india-covid-19-rural.html
October 8, 2020
‘Rural Surge’ Propels India Toward More Covid-19 Infections Than U.S.
The contagion is hitting towns and villages where resources are scant and people are skeptical of lockdown efforts. If unchecked, Indian infections could exceed those in the United States.
January 2, 2021
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 20,904,701)
Deaths ( 358,682)
India
Cases ( 10,324,631)
Deaths ( 149,471)
January 2, 2021
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 1,080)
India ( 108)
January 3, 2021
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 21,113,528)
Deaths ( 360,078)
India
Cases ( 10,341,291)
Deaths ( 149,686)
France
Cases ( 2,655,728)
Deaths ( 65,037)
UK
Cases ( 2,654,779)
Deaths ( 75,024)
Germany
Cases ( 1,781,053)
Deaths ( 35,105)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,443,544)
Deaths ( 126,851)
Canada
Cases ( 601,663)
Deaths ( 15,865)
China
Cases ( 87,117)
Deaths ( 4,634)
January 3, 2021
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 1,102)
US ( 1,085)
France ( 995)
Mexico ( 979)
Germany ( 418)
Canada ( 418)
India ( 108)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 8.8%, 2.8% and 2.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-04/Chinese-mainland-reports-33-new-COVID-19-cases-WLHDGcWGL6/index.html
January 4, 2021
Chinese mainland reports 33 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Sunday reported 33 new COVID-19 cases – 13 cases of local transmission and 20 from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Monday.
The locally transmitted cases were reported in north and northeast China: 6 in Liaoning Province, 4 in Hebei Province, 2 in Beijing and 1 in Heilongjiang Province.
Moreover, 40 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 294 asymptomatic patients remained under medical observation. No death related to COVID-19 was registered on Sunday, while 17 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has reached 87,150, and the death toll stands at 4,634.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-04/Chinese-mainland-reports-33-new-COVID-19-cases-WLHDGcWGL6/img/f4ca46b9178b4653acd04095370b81c2/f4ca46b9178b4653acd04095370b81c2.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-04/Chinese-mainland-reports-33-new-COVID-19-cases-WLHDGcWGL6/img/8b5636adf728413ab068cc9fce661370/8b5636adf728413ab068cc9fce661370.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been only limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 411 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 10 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1344586319536803840
Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford
THREAD/ On misinformation and media management 1. Like every NHS doctor and nurse on here, I am being constantly abused (I’ve even, on occasion, been threatened with rape or death) for saying Covid is real, deadly, and overwhelming our hospitals right now.
5:08 AM · Dec 31, 2020
The complete and important criticism of the public health approach of the directors of the National Health Service:
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1344586319536803840
Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford
On misinformation and media management
1. Like every NHS doctor and nurse on here, I am being constantly abused (I’ve even, on occasion, been threatened with rape or death) for saying Covid is real, deadly, and overwhelming our hospitals right now.
5:08 AM · Dec 31, 2020
2. I say these things for one reason alone. To try and protect all our patients, Covid and non-Covid alike, from the deadly effects of the NHS falling apart under current pressures. We are DESPERATE to protect people.
3. I’m told I’m a liar, a fake, a self-promoter, a fraud.
4. And how do I disprove this torrent of attacks when there are no images from inside our hospitals right now?
5. Why why why @NHSEngland are you not SHOWING the public how grave things are?
6. Do you not understand how lethal the misinformation is?
7. Senior clinicians in multiple hospitals tell me they are desperate to show the reality inside our ICUs, wards and EDs. They aren’t allowed to. All comms have been centralised.
8. I know this to be true at a Trust level too. CEOs who *want* to show the truth and can’t.
9. Meanwhile frontline staff like me risk our jobs, potentially, to try and warm the public to stay home, keep their distance, *believe* the gravity of the situation.
10. That can’t be right, can it? Where is the transparency and leadership?
11. Where is putting patients first?
12. So I am going to appeal directly (again), and with the most heartfelt sincerity, to
@NHSEngland:
13. Let the cameras in. Counter the misinformation with facts. Facts matter. Show the public. Please.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 13 highest and 6 of the 24 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.
Mexico, with more than 1.4 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 13th highest number of cases among all countries. Peru, with more than 1 million cases, has the 5th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 18th highest number among all countries. Mexico was the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 and 125,000 coronavirus deaths.
January 3, 2021
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 1,085) *
Brazil ( 919)
Argentina ( 958)
Colombia ( 859)
Mexico ( 979)
Peru ( 1,139)
Chile ( 873)
Ecuador ( 791)
Bolivia ( 782)
* Descending number of cases
January 3, 2021
Coronavirus
Massachusetts
Cases ( 387,662)
Deaths ( 12,610)
Deaths per million ( 1,830)
————————————–
January 3, 2021
Coronavirus
New York
Cases ( 1,057,162)
Deaths ( 38,369)
Deaths per million ( 1,972)
[ Beyond a national public health failing, we need to look for failings state by state. ]