Wisconsin Employment in February: Trending Sideways

If you’d thought the recovery was in full swing, think again. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 5.6%  relative to NBER peak in 2020M02 (in log terms), vs. 6.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD today).

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from February release (blue), forecast from November 2020 Economic Outlook (teal squares), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.

Nonfarm payroll employment is currently undershooting the November Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast, despite upward benchmark revisions applying to the series as of January. As of February, NFP employment is about 45 thousand below the 2021Q1 average.

Employment in manufacturing has stopped its rise, as has employment in accommodation and food services.

Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment release (blue), and accommodation and food services employment (red, right log scale), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.

Accommodation and food service employment remains 22% below February 2020 levels.

12 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment in February: Trending Sideways

  1. Moses Herzog

    I buy sausage made in Sheboygan Wisconsin, and Smoked Gouda Cheese from Wisconsin, and Andy’s mints (actually I did that before I knew they came from Wisconsin)….. Not much else I can do. I’ve cursed my resident “red” state to hell and that seems to be working.

    1. Moses Herzog

      NO, think Cheap sausage patties, I tear the bread in two and put them in between those little Hawaiian bread thingies. Sometimes I add pickles. I used to get the even more cheap ones made in Kentucky, and then I thought of all the people at the plant who must check Mitch McConnell’s name.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        BTW, Moses, you did not say who produces those “cheap sausages” in Sheboygan. That city on Lake Michigan is not all that big, and I doubt there are any other serious producers of meat products in that city besides Usinger’s. My bet is that your high quality “cheap sausages” are probably produced by Usinger’s. Most of what they put out is high quality, whatever it is called or how it is priced.

        1. Moses Herzog

          It’s not Usinger’s. Isn’t Usinger’s Milwaukee?? I never said they were high quality, just passable. I buy them for the price and location of the jobs.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            You are right, Moses. Usinger’s is from Milwaukee. I thought they also had a branch in Sheboygan, but apparently not. Looks like the main sausage producer there is Johnsonville’s. That is probably who produces what you get.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Yup, that is correct. Technically it’s Sheboygan Falls, which is almost in essence a suburb 5 miles west of there. Which makes sense because if they can they’re going to put it someplace with less people because of the smell. So I was wrong on the exact location. Next thing I’d like to know is if that county votes red or blue. I guess I could look it up.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Yeah, and I made a further mistake. The producer in Sheboygan Falls is Johnsonville, no possessive on the end there.

            Thanks for the food tip I do not deserve, Moses, although probably not too likely I shall go through Marshalltown anytime soon. I have long been one of those foodie snobs, arguing with Tyler Cowen about his DC restaurant recommendations. But all that has gone out the window with the pandemic. Lucky to get out to the nearest pizza parlor, if that. I guess things will pick up again hopefully.

          4. Moses Herzog

            Barkley Rosser
            I am far from a “foodie”, spending part of your childhood in a mobile home (trailer home if you prefer) tends to rid you of those things. Lower middle class certainly, even after my Mom attained her RN which gave us some “breathing room” financially. But I don’t begrudge people who are foodies, I “get” it. But I think there are some places that are aimed for blue collar people (which Taylor’s Maid-Rites probably is) which also can be appealing to people with more refined tastes. I would argue Taylor’s is one of those places. So on the small chance you are ever there (I forgot, it’s “half a skip east of I-35, or very close to Iowa State University if you ever find yourself near Iowa State U. You’ll be doing yourself a favor. I can promise you it’s at least better than McDonald’s, though given, a low bar.

        2. Moses Herzog

          If you ever find yourself in a car or motorhome going Iowa way, make sure you stop in at Taylor’s Maid-Rite. Make sure it’s Taylor’s in Marshalltown, because some of the other Maid-Rites are garbage. In their heyday that place made the best burgers I have EVER had in my life:

          The malts are good too, They used to serve them (if you ate inside) in a medium to small sized glass. I don’t know why I’m telling you this, you don’t deserve food that good.

  2. Barkley Rosser

    Well, Usinger’s makes excellent bratwurst, the ultimate Wisconsin meat product, maybe the best in the state from a major commercial producer.

  3. Moses Herzog

    The two Mothra chicks are leaving in the ocean at the end of the film and no one even thanked them. They really are taking after America now.

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