ADP private nonfarm change at 742K below consensus of 800K (Bloomberg).
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS March release (black), Bloomberg consensus for April as of 5/5 (teal square), ADP April release (red), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
An employment increase of 742 thousand is below expectations. Crazy times!
It’s also ADP.
Leisure and hospitality, 237,000
Trade and transportation, 155,000
Goods sector, 106,000
Business and professional, 104,000
Education, 92,000
Small, medium and large firms all hired in excess of 200,000. Mighty healthy looking.
Oops.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/93390/ocs-19f-01.pdf?v=5860.4
June, 2019
Interdependence of China, United States, and Brazil in Soybean Trade
By Fred Gale, Constanza Valdes, and Mark Ash
Abstract
Soybeans are the largest and most concentrated segment of global agricultural trade. Two land-abundant countries—Brazil and the United States—supply most soybean exports, and China accounts for over 60 percent of global soybean imports. International trade in soybeans began growing when China liberalized imports to meet demand for protein in animal feed and edible oils. A tariff structure favoring imports of soybeans, domestic policies favoring production of cereal grains, and rapid expansion of processing capacity drove China’s growth in soybean imports. More flexible U.S. policies facilitated production response by U.S. farmers to supply more soybeans, and Brazil’s expansion of output in its inland Cerrado region propelled supply growth in recent years. China imported even more Brazilian soybeans after imposing a 25-percent tariff on U.S. soybeans during 2018, but the overall volume of China’s imports fell for the first time in 15 years. USDA’s 10-year projections indicate that China will continue to account for most future growth in global soybean imports even if the tariff remains in place. However, USDA projects slower growth in China’s imports than in the previous decade. Projections show that Brazil will again account for most of the growth in global soybean exports during the next decade, but growth will be slower.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ohWv
January 30, 2018
Producer Prices for Soybeans, 2017-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=DE9I
January 30, 2018
Producer Prices for Soybeans and Trade Weighted Price of Dollar for advanced economies, 2017-2021
(Percent change)
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/06/c_139928874.htm
May 6, 2021
China to stabilize grain production, ensure food security
BEIJING — China will further promote stable grain production and step up its ability to ensure food security, a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang decided on Thursday.
Thanks to a succession of bumper harvests in recent years, the country has enjoyed ample supply of major agricultural products and ensured basic self-sufficiency in cereal grains and absolute grain security.
There is solid foundation for another good harvest this year. The winter wheat acreage increased for the first time in nearly four years, and the crop is in a better shape than the previous years.
Summer crops are expected to produce yet another bumper harvest. Spring plowing and sowing has progressed smoothly, and the area planted to early-season rice remains stable. The intended acreage of grains for the whole year will further expand, with corn planted area up from the previous year.
“Stable grain production and greater ability to ensure food security have provided a solid underpinning for promoting stable economic and social development and responding to the impact of COVID-19. Annual grain output should remain at no less than 650 billion kilograms this year,” Li said.
Determined efforts will be made to ensure stable and high yields. The policies including minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat and subsidies for corn and soybean producers will remain and be improved. The pilot programs of full-cost insurance and income insurance for the three major cereal crops will be extended to make grain growing profitable for farmers.
Central budgetary investment and proceeds from the transfer of land-use rights at provincial level will be tilted towards major grain-producing counties….
i don’t see anything in the employment data that would suggest a concern about inflation, as has been discussed in the media. real wages are not rising, so why would inflation be a longer term problem. now, if we get an increase in the minimum wage, that could pose a different story. we have not really had inflation issues since the 70’s and early 80’s. coincidently, that is also when the real minimum wage was the highest. recent discussions of pushing the minimum wage above $10 and possibly $15, could reintroduce that issue. but not a long term problem until real wages increase quite a bit.
after today’s employment report, still don’t see how inflation can be any more than transitory. stimulus and loose money policy may impact asset prices, but does not seem to be an impact for inflation with labor unable to command pay raises.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected/ar-BB1gqneL?ocid=uxbndlbing
Weekly jobless claims fell to below 0.5 million for the 1st time in 13 months.
It’s not monolithic.
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
No one (let me repeat this slowly for the slow minded) NO ONE ever said reported unemployment rates across states were “monolithic”. There have always been regional differences in reported unemployment rates across states. So to post a single month of this stuff is beyond stupid. To suggest anyone would say this was monolithic is about as dumb as it gets.
But I guess we have come to expect incredibly stupid comments from Bruce “no relationship to Robert” Hall.
Mission accomplished: button pushed. I was going to be so disappointed if you didn’t write something personal and irrelevant.
But I’m sooo glad you understand the implication of different regions and different states … and different policies … have on an aggregate unemployment rate. This is especially evident with the northeast and with California.
https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-State
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818
Oh, you might note that the data from the BLS (link from previous comment) was year-to-year change, not “one month”.
But keep ranting before you think. It makes my day.
Is this your sole reason for living? Proving to us all how incredibly dumb you are. RELAX – we got that years ago. Find a real purpose – like harassing the Asian ladies are the corner grocery store. When the police arrest you – RUDY will be glad to represent you since Trump cut him off.
Funny you put in bold POLICIES since you cannot articulate what that term even means. Maybe you should have read your own link for a change:
‘The United States’ failure to contain COVID-19 and the inability of the federal government to consistently sustain aggressive steps to bolster the economy as earlier measures lapsed had stalled the recovery.’
Failure to contain the virus is because a lot of dimwits like your boy Trump was following YOUR advice of reopening too soon, taking bleach over getting the vaccine, and refusing to do social distancing. Take a bow Brucie – you helped the weakness in the economy. Good show boy!
And a lack of new aggressive steps lays at the feet of your boy Mitch McConnell. Thanks for raising the terms policies even if you are too damn stupid to know what that even means!
“In order to determine the states with the fewest coronavirus restrictions, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 13 key metrics. Our data set ranges from whether restaurants are open to whether the state has required face masks in public and workplace temperature screenings. Read on for the state ranking, additional insight from a panel of experts and a full description of our methodology.”
The experts at Wallet Hub? Are you effing kidding us? BTW dimwit – having the fewest restrictions proves nothing. I guess this is why you are called Single Statistic Bruce. Some states have fewer restrictions now because their governor is a science denier like you – which will lead to bad consequences.
Now other states have done better jobs at getting cases down through smart science based approaches (my apologies for boring you with something you neither give a damn about nor understand) so reopening can be done safely.
But the experts at Wallet Hub? You are the Master at coming up with loony tune sources!!!
Notice that these experts did not distinguish between states that are primarily goods producing versus those that are services producing. It should be patently obvious that employment in goods producing states will come out of the pandemic recession much faster than services oriented economies. But yet these supposed experts completely missed it. And so did Bruce. That’s what happens when you watch too much Fox Noise; it turns off your critical thinking faculties. [Actually, that’s literally true. The reason Fox Noise has all of those moving icons and scrolls across the screen is to shut down critical thinking. Roger Ailes hired a team of psychologists to come up with a way to make viewers into passive receivers rather than critical viewers. Watching Fox Noise actually lowers your score on a standardized IQ test. The effect lasts about 90 minutes.]
Bruce Hall There’s an obvious methodological problem with the wallethub.com analysis. Their assumption is that the absence of a state distance or mask mandate means county and local governments or businesses also did not have mandates. They also assumed that having a mask mandate assures compliance with that mandate. And using the official unemployment rate is a bit bizarre since people who exit the labor force because of the virus are not counted in the unemployment rate. There are other problems with their analysis. All in all a pretty sorry effort.
Um, not to rain on your parade (oh, who am I kidding; it seems that every comment of yours deserves its own monsoon season), but:
1) Year-to-year? Your link says it’s the state rates for March 2021. That doesn’t sound year-to-year to me.
2) The OP is about the unemployment rate for April, which featured a much different economic and social landscape than March, so I don’t see the relevance of your March rates to the OP.
I’m amazed that it’s never occurred to you to ditch the MAGA bias so that you could start to focus on, you know, reality.
3) Even if if your link was cumulative through the pandemic, the graph in the OP clearly shows that aggregate employment is still far below the pre-pandemic level, so again, how is this relevant to the OP?
“Year-to-year? Your link says it’s the state rates for March 2021. That doesn’t sound year-to-year to me.”
Precisely. But remember – Bruce only types what Kelly Anne Conway emails him to write. OK Kelly Anne is a total bimbo but don’t blame Steno Bruce for her stupidity.
“you might note that the data from the BLS (link from previous comment) was year-to-year change, not “one month”.”
I never imagined such an incredibly dumb statement even from our village idiot (you). Look at the title and if that is not enough, look at the footnote:
‘Estimates for the current month are subject to revision the following month.’
Your source is the level for the current month not the year to year change. Damn – your reading comprehension is far worse than I ever imagined.