Business Cycle Indicators as of July 1

IHS-MarkIt monthly GDP for May down 0.1%, while Bloomberg consensus for June nonfarm payrolls is for a 700K increase.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/1 for June nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Nowcasts for Q2: Atlanta GDPNow at 8.6% (7/1), NY Fed at 3.4% (6/25), and IHS-Markit at 8.0% (7/1).