Wisconsin Employment in October

DWD released October figures today.

The release makes a few points. Here are my key observations.

  • The establishment survey indicates sideways trending total and private payroll (NFP) employment (Figure 1), although an increase is now recorded for private NFP.
  • Manufacturing and high contact services employment are both hitting July 2021 Department of Revenue (DoR) forecasts.
  • Leisure and hospitality in Wisconsin underpaces nation (Figure 3).

First, overall trends:

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from October release (black), private nonfarm payroll employment (teal), all  s.a., all in logs, 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.

Next, goods producing and high contact services, using manufacturing and leisure and hospitality services as proxies.

Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment  (blue, left log scale), forecast from July 2021 Economic Outlook, released in August (light blue), leisure and hospitality services employment (red, right scale), and forecast from July 2021 Economic Outlook (pink), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, DWD, NBER and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.

While leisure and hospitality services employment growth has recently accelerated, the recovery still lags that of the nation overall.

Figure 3: Wisconsin leisure and hospitality (black), and US (blue), s.a., in logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.

I don’t have an updated time series for labor force and employment, so will show the developments there tomorrow.

35 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment in October

  1. Moses Herzog

    There’s only so much capital outflows from southern plains wasteland GDP I can send to you in exchange for awesome Cheese and pink lemonade that costs $1.08 per bottle man. I still have to have room left over for dirty liberal California wine and Mexican “murderers and rapists” Beer. Come on man!!!!
    https://www.drinkcalypso.com/about-us/

    Not to mention the occasional $2.62 tall can Heineken.

    Reply
  2. macroduck

    The Philly Fed factory survey special question(s) this month had to do with expectations of prices and wages. While this is just one nuggget in the Fed’s data pile, it does show upward creep in price expectations. This keeps pressure to tighten rising. (Only don’t call it tightening.)

    A couple of the survey findings show that factory managers cling to the belief that their selling price will rise faster than wages. It’s a religious tenet, no sacrilege allowed.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      Interesting and humorous as hell on that last part. I gotta check back on the Philly Fed website. That’s got lots of interesting goodies on there and I keep forgetting to wander around over there. Weirdly enough Cleveland Fed is probably my favorite in recent years. But each regional bank website has its own kind of “flavor” and is fun. Nearer to my college days Minneapolis was my favorite regional Fed website. They all have lots of nice amusement park rides really.

      Reply
  3. Jake formerly of the LP

    You missed the bigger story, Prof Chinn – BLS discovered faulty data in the household survey, and it caused changes in the unemployment rates in Wisconsin and a few other Midwestern states.

    https://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm

    So instead of 3.9% unemployment in September, Wisconsin’s rate was lowered to 3.4%, and dropped further to 3.2% in October. So perhaps part of the reason growth has flatlined is that there simply aren’t any more people available for new jobs. We may well be maxed out, after COVID’s effects and already-unfavorable demographics.

    Reply
    1. T. Shaw

      Interesting.

      Are state-by-state labor participation data available?

      How would WI compare with the national labor participation rate – 61.6%? Level and trend. I remember when it was 62.4% in October 2015 and some called that a ‘generational low.’

      Reply
  4. rsm

    How can you ppl acknowledge this is from a good old-fashioned survey, yet not report standard errors?

    From the link:

    《a data distortion that was discovered by the BLS retrospectively》

    Are we allowed to ask how many they haven’t discovered?

    Are real statisticians laughing at economists?

    https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/25/the-importance-of-talking-about-the-importance-of-measurement-it-depends-on-the-subfield/

    《As Eric Loken and I have discussed, when you have noisy data, a statistical significant finding doesn’t tell you so much. The fact that a result is statistically significant does not imply that your measurement error was so low that your statistically significant finding can be trusted.》

    How long can economists get away with murder?

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      But, rsm, you are the one constantly demanding that economists constantly report standard errors every time they open their mouths about anything, and those are what underly statistical significance. So if reporting statistical significance contributes to murder, would not reporting standard errors also do so? Is there any escape from murdering people for economists?

      Reply
  5. Moses Herzog

    Western businesses who do business in China because “this market is too huge to leave un-adventured” are in for a big surprise. You live by one outfit’s rule in China—“the Party rule”. And they destroy who they want, when they one, at any point in time that they want. Ask Jack Ma, and other men in China what “market share” means over there. It means nothing, because between Monday when you have 75% of any important market segment won, by Tuesday early afternoon they’ll have you squashed like a ladybug under a Sumo wrestler’s foot. But guys like Tim Cook will keep going back to eventually have their head handed to them.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/eat-children-wife-former-interpol-031054256.html

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      @ pgl
      I’m curious where you’re getting the $37 bIllion number from??? What I am reading is $160 billion deficit. And I would be extremely happy and appreciative if Menzie would like to referee this number/disagreement. Because frankly I put a lot of faith in that $160 billion deficit number

      Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          I guess I’m really gonna have to “dig in” to the numbers there. Because I trust that journalist, the doe-eyed redhead there, she’s a pretty sharp cookie. And if she’s quoting $160 billion then I am thinking it must “dissipate” over the years??~~ I mean there has to be a reason for the differential there.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            This CBO passage did not include any estimate of new taxes from better enforcement which some have put at $207 billion over the decade. So 367 – 207 may be her $160 billion over the decade.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            pgl: Yes, I suspect that might be the case. It depends whether you want to take the official CBO score, or the “footnote” about estimated increased revenues from enhanced IRS enforcement.

        2. pgl

          Thank you. “CBO estimates that enacting this legislation would result in a net increase in the deficit totaling $367 billion over the 2022-2031 period, not counting any additional revenue that may be generated by additional funding for tax enforcement.”

          I divided 367 by 10 and rounded up. And I forgot to include those rsm confidence intervals. Silly me.

          Reply
          1. Ivan

            No confidence intervals – OHHH the humanity!!!

            And where are the standard errors???? – You are Killing me!!

  6. James

    Dear Menzie,

    One small data point – I attended the WI DHS Focus Conference this week. (Virtual) This is an informational state-wide conference organized by the WI DHS for caregivers, case managers, long-term care workers, healthcare providers. The keynote and most of the breakout sessions were focused on caregiver shortage, worker retention, worker burnout, COVID safety protocols in nursing homes, etc. Also hearing from a couple of my friends with disabilities – there are no workers to hire for in-home long-term care at state rate. The problem seems especially bad in rural areas of the state.
    Given Wisconsin’s demographic trends – older, white people – we are running out of workers willing to clean our rear ends as we watch Fox News and complain about the Southern border and boats off Long Beach.
    I think instead we should be demanding that the WIGOP organize a caravan to Wisconsin of prime working age people from the Southern border.
    It would be helpful if the WIGOP would allow us to focus on real issues and stop spending WI taxpayers $ promoting Trump election B.S. and taking away our rights to vote. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/us/politics/wisconsin-republicans-decertify-election.html
    Thanks

    Reply
  7. pgl

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/response-soaring-gas-prices-biden-orders-ftc-immediately-probe-illegal-conduct-oil-gas

    Could folks help me – is Tyler Durden even dumber than CoRev or is he just a blatant liar. The link is his November 17 rant is entitled “In Response To Soaring Gas Prices, Biden Orders FTC To “Immediately” Probe “Illegal Conduct” By Oil & Gas Companies”. I say rant as he babbles on and on sort of like Kevin McCarthy. But he eventually got around to writing:

    ‘Well… here is the answer: prices are set based on input costs and taxes, which have never been higher. Indeed, one should probably advise Biden that in addition to oil costs, taxes make up a substantial portion of the end cost of gasoline…’
    Well oil prices are an important cost but of late they have been falling, And they are not even close to record levels. And yes taxes makes up around $0.40 of the price of a gallon of gasoline but they have not been increased of late.

    Tyler has a graph that one cannot even read because it is so poorly presented and yes that stupid tweet from GreekFire23 who must think he is Julius Ervin or whatever.

    Distribution margins are up, which is what Biden is trying to say here. Tyler Durden knows this but he is truly a dishonest fellow.

    Reply
    1. paddy kivlin

      melvin udall (jack n) character’s oft quoted soliloquy : to understand a liberal in usa take a normal human and take away “reason and accountability”…. pgl is prototypical.

      if anyone in the blue cities the summer of 2020 did their job ……

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        You ever worked in a certified university economics Dept before?? George Mason U. perhaps?? Or maybe you’re an affectionate grad assistant of Johnny Cuckrant’s??

        Reply
      2. Moses Herzog

        Paddy, your orange creature idol was “So powerful” and “all-knowing”….. Did you ever ask yourself how “liberal retard Mayors” could always checkmate and beat your sh*t-head hero?? Your genius orange monkeyboy can’t even out-maneuver the Mayor of Denver. Anything strike you as “strange” about that, as your hero was “going down” on Putin every other day??? Anything strange to you about a dirty liberal Mayor body slamming your all-knowing all-powerful orange monkey hero on that?? Why do you think that might be??

        Or here’s another rhetorical question~~~why did your orange monkeyman hide out in fear while he got white trash sh*t-heads like you to attack your own nation’s capitol??? Any answers from movie characters on that question “paddy”??

        Reply
      3. pgl

        Maybe you think you are making a point with this word salad rabbling but you sound more incoherent than even that trial court judge.

        Reply
        1. paddy kivlin

          you are emotional, “accountability” and “justice” used about a case on which you are distraught and ill informed by the media is being humpty dumpty, defining words as you like….

          assault, battery, looting and arson are not “social justice protesting”,……. to begin to correct your presumptions.

          where you live only criminals are armed….

          Reply
          1. baffling

            so when an armed black man walks through a white neighborhood, you will defend him when he shoots the white residents who take up arms and point guns at him as he walks down the street? self defense, right? i just want to be sure these new rules apply equally to all races, or do we have different rules for different neighborhoods?

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