DWD released October figures today.
The release makes a few points. Here are my key observations.
- The establishment survey indicates sideways trending total and private payroll (NFP) employment (Figure 1), although an increase is now recorded for private NFP.
- Manufacturing and high contact services employment are both hitting July 2021 Department of Revenue (DoR) forecasts.
- Leisure and hospitality in Wisconsin underpaces nation (Figure 3).
First, overall trends:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from October release (black), private nonfarm payroll employment (teal), all s.a., all in logs, 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
Next, goods producing and high contact services, using manufacturing and leisure and hospitality services as proxies.
Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment (blue, left log scale), forecast from July 2021 Economic Outlook, released in August (light blue), leisure and hospitality services employment (red, right scale), and forecast from July 2021 Economic Outlook (pink), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, DWD, NBER and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.
While leisure and hospitality services employment growth has recently accelerated, the recovery still lags that of the nation overall.
Figure 3: Wisconsin leisure and hospitality (black), and US (blue), s.a., in logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
I don’t have an updated time series for labor force and employment, so will show the developments there tomorrow.