Odds

No prediction markets on an expanded incursion (remember they already have the Crimea and de facto Donbas) into Ukraine, but here’s the market on how many mentions of “Russia” or “Putin” in the State of the Union address – a proxy for prominence of the Ukraine issue.

Source: PredictIt, accessed 6pm ET, 2/18/2022.

Note that the President’s statement was after the closing of markets, so the futures market response is not available.

63 thoughts on “Odds”

      2. Moses Herzog

        So an increase in food and electronics prices caused by inane trade tariffs under the orange abomination is “patriotic” but under a Democrat President inflation caused by an overheated GDP and consumption is “just too much to bear”?? Is that how the MAGA and QAnon brain works?? Please satiate my curiosity on how those sensory neurons fire off in that thing you call a brain.

        1. Anonymous

          mh,

          how long are we going to blame everything on donald trump?

          seems he was off to the “private sector” thirteen months ago.

          how long til biden ‘fixes’ the virus? a proposed all through 2020.

          1. pgl

            There is lasting damage from those stupid tariffs. There is severe lasting damage from his neglect of COVID-19. There is lasting damage from his attempt to undermine our foreign policy including NATO. And of course the damage to democracy from his attempted coup could last for a long time.

            But a troll like you will never blame Trump as long as you play your Faux News cards on Biden.

          2. Macroduck

            Well, we could look at actual causes and their effects, instead of arbitrarily limiting the time for which the highest office-holder in the land can be held responsible for his actions.

          3. Ivan

            Interesting 13 month and all effects of a presidency are gone?

            I guess Reagan didn’t end the cold war. Nixon didn’t go to China and change our relationships…..

            Or is it just the unpleasant effects of policies that quickly get passed onto the new guy from the other party?

        1. Moses Herzog

          I don’t know, what are the probabilities if “T. Moron” was smacked in the face by his neighbor the cost of limes would lower?? And why am I asking this arbitrary question to the learning disabled??

          1. T. Shaw

            Hey, Moses!

            Maybe you can help a learning-disabled, old man.

            What did they call electric eels before they discovered electricity?

            There is a God!

            Women spend more time thinking about what men are thinking than men spend actually thinking.

        2. pgl

          T. Shaw
          February 19, 2022 at 12:44 pm

          The only thing women think about when they see T. Shaw is where is the nearest police as this troll is beyond creepy.

        4. Moses Herzog

          “There’s no Team America for Trump,” Hill recalled. “Not once did I see him do anything to put America first. Not once. Not for a single second.”

          It showed in Trump’s praise for the authoritarian leader of Russia, an American adversary that had boosted his finances as a business executive. It showed in his reluctance to embrace America’s mutual defense commitments to European allies, which for decades have constrained Russian behavior; instead, Trump treated NATO as what Hill called a “protection racket.”

          Most notoriously, it showed in Trump’s attempt to squeeze Ukraine’s President for manufactured dirt on Biden to help his 2020 election campaign. He held up American military aid as a political lever as Ukraine faced the long-running Russian military threat that now has the entire world on edge.

          “All this did was say to Russia that Ukraine was a playground,” Hill said.
          https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/20/politics/fiona-hill-donald-trump-joe-biden/index.html

          At home, Trump softened Republicans’ once-hawkish approach to Russia. Today, the leading Fox News hosts and other conservative voices – “the ultimate stooges,” as Hill calls them – buttress Russian arguments as armed conflict looms.

          1. Moses Herzog

            The last portion should also be in bold, to signify it was copy pasted from the John Harwood authored article. My apologies.

  2. macroduck

    Russian adventurism, and in fact the very existence of the Soviet Union in later years, seems closely tied to the price of oil. In the case of adventurism in Ukraine, we will all remember that Russia last invaded Ukraine in 2014, when oil was running in the high $90s per barrel or above. So, a couple oflittle facts which sem salient now are the fiscal break-even price of oil for Russia and the timing of the lates bout of Russian adventurism, relative to that price:

    “S&P Global Platts Analytics … estimates Russia’s breakeven price at $69/b Brent for 2021,… down from $76/b in 2020”

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices

    WTI (not so different from Brent) broke above $69/bbl in June of last year and again in September. In November, we learned that satellite imagery showed a build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border.

    Every history buff knows that a rise in oil prices saved the Soviet Union once before it fell apart, and that persistent weakness in oil prices contributed to its eventual downfall. (Yeah,yeah, Reagan single-handedly toppled the Soviet Union. We know.) Russia is very sensitive to financial concerns. We have tools for that, if we choose to use them.

      1. pgl

        Can you make any more incredibly stupid comments? Yes the Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan. And that was FOLLOWED not PRECEDED by our boycott of the 1980 Olympics. I guess you get cause and effect backwards an integral part of your fraudulent consulting practice.

  3. Moses Herzog

    I think this first story in this link is probably more interesting than most people would gauge it. Putin has already put enough troops and war equipment near the Ukraine border or in pro-Russian separatist areas to intimidate and scare Ukraine people and western leaders. So the question becomes, why have more helicopters, when the purpose of “the bluff” of potential war has already been accomplished??? There’s only one reason to add more helicopters and more war equipment at this stage.

  5. Barkley Rosser

    At this moment I do not know what the odds are. There are lots of confusing signals pointing in lots of directions. Russian media to its own people is not sending a clear signal. President Biden says Putin has made a decision to invade, possibly even the full version that involves going for Kyiv. We (I in particular) do not know the basis of this judgment. I saw General McCaffery on 11th Hour saying that while Russian troops are massively poised on the border they also seem not to be fully poised in a way one would expect if they were about to move. Officially, Putin continues to proclaim no invasion is happening.

    I do not know at this moment. Anything is possible. A lot of focus and increase in military activity seems to be in and near the separatist Donbas republics, where it looks like a case has been made to justify a Russian invasion. I hope that in the end some deal involving them, perhaps Putin recognizing them with some sort of modification of the Minsk Accords, becoming what will satisfy him without a full blown invasion. The latter would be disastrous on many counts and for many reasons.

    But, as I have noted at various points, Putin has been more isolated than many realize for some time (this is known in Russia where he is rarely seen in public), which has me and some others worried that he may have gotten himself off into delusional thinking, despite all the claims one hears about how supposedly rational he is. His manifesto about Russian and Ukrainian history from last July was seriously historically incorrect, if fitting with extreme Russian nationalist fantasies. This is a situation where it is really not possible to meaningfully calculate odds as to what Putin will do once we move past Sunday when both the Winter Olympics and the formal military exercises in Belarus end.

    1. Moses Herzog

      NYT has some kind of profile on him. I’m thinking of getting the hardcopy later tonight to read it, even though I already know trying to understand Putin is an exercise in futility, and yet I still feel like it might give me some psychological security making the attempt. A false sense of security, but at least something to latch onto.

    2. Anonymous

      one side is declining, economically stagnant, decaying set of regimes, the other is growing, expanding, and thriving.

      which side wants war this spring?

      which side is the ‘atlantic’ cult?

      someone wants to go at it before the other side gets stronger……

      all allusions to munich are stunted!

  6. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-19/Chinese-mainland-records-137-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17LWixlTumY/index.html

    February 19, 2022

    Chinese mainland reports 137 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 137 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Friday, with 80 linked to local transmissions and 57 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Saturday.

    A total of 37 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 694 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 107,512 with the death toll remaining unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-19/Chinese-mainland-records-137-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17LWixlTumY/img/d6b2f73611074223a8851a03a3f1237f/d6b2f73611074223a8851a03a3f1237f.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-19/Chinese-mainland-records-137-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17LWixlTumY/img/ebed204aba6a46f78a3af22829c6ec7b/ebed204aba6a46f78a3af22829c6ec7b.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-19/Chinese-mainland-records-137-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17LWixlTumY/img/c94283b17fec4c6da43c3bd3e86149d3/c94283b17fec4c6da43c3bd3e86149d3.jpeg

  7. Moses Herzog

    The thing I love the most about the #MeToo movement, is how women are always willing to stick up for each other and contribute to the wider cause of the #MeToo movement, no matter how detrimental it is to themselves or what self-sacrifice has to be made for the cause they hold so deeply. Because they KNOW how horrid and hurtful these things have been for career-oriented women, over the decades:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/business/media/allison-gollust-cnn-cuomo.html

    You go girl!!!! Earn that respect…… that “you just can’t get” from men.

  8. Barkley Rosser

    latest from Russian media is that indeed they are spouting all the false flag stuff out of the Donbas republics, blaiming US and NATO supposedly behind all the meanie things Ukraine supposedly doing. Regarding this evacuation order, well, a lot of people there have been granted Russian citizenship, and the local economies have completely fallen apart since declaring their independence from Ukraine. I am sure some of these people are glad to move to Russia proper and improve their living standards.

    As it is, it sounds like people are more upset about the figure skating scandals and upheavals from the Olympics than all this Ukraine business, which is, after all, basically just a heating up of old news. But the fall of Valieva and all the crying afterwards by the top Russian women skaters? Oh, this is a very big deal that has a lot of people seriously upset, with the government blaming the US for the whole mess. Really.

    I note China has openly come out against any invasion of Ukraine. Of course, Putin continues to claim there will be no invasion, only the use of “military-technical” methods if his demands are not met. Does this mean more cyberattacks. Lukashenka visited Moscow, and looks like maybe some of the Russian troops will stay there, you know, to defend poor Belarus from those meanie Ukrainians who have been threatening to attack them, backed by US and NATO,

    I understand the strategy of outing possible Russian actions, but I am a bit worried that Biden may be overdoing it with some of his forecasts. Again, I do not have access to the intel, but just exactly how does he know what Putin has “decided”? Not obvious to me Putin himself knows. And also raising the threat of a direct attack on Kyiv, that would be Scenario 6 of Menbzie’s maps, the max attack. Somehow, even if Russian troops are sent in, I am skeptical of that one. More likely they will go into the Donbas republics to support some expansion of their territory, especially Donestsk one grabbing the port of Mariupol they controlled briefly earlier. Their economies are really pathetic shambles and getting a port would help, especially if combined with Russian recognition and peace.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      BTW, while China opposes an invasion of Ukraine, they also continue to support Putin’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO.

    2. Gregory Bott

      Yeah, Biden needs to shut up and move in the background. I think most of the intel they get is from the Russian government itself, but they are clearly lying and playing games. According to retired Soviet GRU sources I have, Putin has no intention of invading, but “Show” games until it runs out of favor. He can’t keep crying wolf forever.

      Even the Ukrainian President gets it, finally told Biden to shut it up.

      It will pass………including Oil prices which could be heading for a 30-40% decline by summer.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        G.B.,

        Well, it is true that overly hyping threat of invasion is hurting the Ukrainian economy, which does not help. I think it was not helpful to move the US Embassy from Kyiv to L’viv.

        1. Moses Herzog

          You’d prefer the embassy diplomats open a cupcake shop in Kyiv and pretend to be locals while Iskander missiles hail down?? Wow, you really are the Russian expert. Quick, email Antony Blinken your idea for cupcake shop reconnaissance before someone at Camp Peary steals your idea.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            In a bad sign indeed it has been decided by Putin and Lukashenka to keep Russian troops in Belarus. They does keep the Scenario option open of a direct assault on Kyiv. I do note that the idea of Russia taking Kyiv but not L’viv is a Scenario 5 1/2.

            With the Olympics over and the Belarusian exercises over, we are now at a crucial moment. If there is to be a Scenario 5 or 6 invasion the probability is at about its maximum point now and for the next several days of that happening.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Barkley Junior says: “…..and the Belarusian exercises over,”

            You have me dying with laughter here. Have you thought of a second career as a Will Rogers type political humorist?? For you, the jokes will literally write themselves. Or did “Ekho Moskvy” give you this joke??

            Barkley, you can’t possibly be this dumb. Are you that hard up for attention??

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          Only four other nations have made the move. Looks downright cowardly, frankly, aside from unnecessarily adding to panic and damaging the Ukrainian economy, which does not help support the government at this difficult time, much less the ability of Ukraine to defend itself.

          As it is, note that in the previous thread Menzie provided six different scenarios. Only one of these, the max one, involves any attack on Kyiv. One that is a lot more likely, although probably still under 50%, is the one whete Putin has his forces sweep thtough the parts where there are fairly substantial Russian-speaking minorities, Scenario 5, which would have them take the eastern part and the southern part all the way across to control all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including the important poet of Odessa, Uktaine’s third largest city, which is near Transniestria where those troops you so d.a. thought were part of the Belarusian exercises but in “south east Romania,” you blazing d.a., which would be linked up with.

          I note that apparently a map showing the outcome of that particular scenario was shown on some part of Russian TV with various commentators debating the pros and cons of it. I also note that scenario does not involve taking Kyiv, which would be left under a reduced Ukrainian control that would still control central and northwestern Ukraine.

          I appreciate precautionarily removing families of embassy staffs and unnecessary personnel. But note, Scenario 6, the only one involving an attack on Kyiv, also included conquering all of Ukraine, including L;viv, the city to wjhich the US Embassy is being removed. So, it might come under attack anyway. This is all the more reason why this looks like a stupid move, frankly, the soet of thing that would impresss a d.a. like you who thinks that Transniestria ia south east Romania.

          As it is, I conrtinue to hope that Putin will end up being satisfied with something that focuses on the separartist republics in the east, where so far all the activity in Ukraine itself has happened. Putin can probably get away with that without triggering the sanctions against him and his people, which I know his nearest cronies really do not want to happen as those will severely damage their personal wealth.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Your link does not undo anything i said. It is still the case that only five embassies in total are moving. And it is only rational to do so if the so far nonexistent Scenario 5 1/2 happens, one that involves Russia conquering Kyiv but not the northwest where L’viv is. Scenario 5 does not involve an attack on Kyiv, while Scenario 6 involves Russia conquering all of Ukraine, including L’viv. So what is the point of this embassy move? Looks pretty stupid to me, and, again, only four other nations out of over 100 doing so.

            The supposed offficial word on the Russian troops staying in Belarus is because of the uptick of war activities in the eastern separatist republics. But, needless to say, they are far away from Belarus. Obviously keeping those troops there keeps everybody on their toes for the possibility of Scenario 6, but I remind you, moving the embassy to L’viv is a pointless waste if Scenoario 6 happens.

            You are not able to think these things through and instead post stuff that does not remotely address the ponts I make?

          3. 2slugbaits

            Barkley Rosser Offhand I can think of two pretty good reasons for moving the embassy close to the Polish border. The first reason is that it further emphasizes the need for resident Americans to get their butts out of Ukraine. It makes it pretty clear that if we don’t expect to be able to evacuate our own embassy people in the immediate aftermath of an invasion, then there is zero chance that we’ll be able to evacuate resident Americans. If those resident Americans want to stay in Ukraine, then they should at the very least think seriously about moving to far western Ukraine that’s both out of missile range and nearer the American consulate (now embassy). The second reason is that the risk of an errant missile hitting the US embassy in Kyiv is a lot higher than a missile hitting L’viv. The last thing Biden wants is to have US embassy personnel killed by a Russian missile. And given the track record of the separatists (remember that KLM airliner?), competence with missiles isn’t an attribute that comes to mind. An accidental hit on the US embassy that killed embassy staff would be an act of war that could escalate. I understand the damage that pulling embassy staff out of Kyiv has on Ukraine, but we don’t need world war three.

          4. Moses Herzog

            @ 2slugbaits
            Sanity. At long last. Pass it on. Thank you

            You’ve heard of “Havana Syndrome”?? “Harrisonburg Syndrome” is when you get within earshot of a certain “mathematical economist” and your IQ lowers 10 points by every minute you listened.

          5. Moses Herzog

            Is anyone else starting to get the weird suspicion that Barkley Junior may have been Hillary and Charlene Lamb’s secret adviser on Benghazi in the summer of 2012?? I guess Eric Nordstrom was some kind of “coward” er something.

    3. Anonymous

      >50% polled think biden is in cognitive distress/decline:

      headline: ‘biden is in putin’s head”

      maskirovka

    4. Moses Herzog

      I keep wondering when our resident expert on Russia [edited – MDC] is going to figure out that Russian troops stationed right up next to Ukraine’s northern border, in Belarus, are not dimply doing “exercises”. Is this one of those circumstances that takes a PhD to figure out??

  9. Macroduck

    Might be worth considering that a semi-permanent threat against Ukraine serves Putin’s purposes. Ukraine would likely suffer low investment, low morale, higher security costs, while other west-minded countries are treated to the prospect of similar treatment.

    The U.S., meanwhile, is distracted and Russia made to seem a big deal.

    1. Macroduck

      By the way, anybody notice how ltr hasn’t been telling us how righteous and noble Russia is? Tough to spew happy good feeling about bad things when China’s leaders are avoiding takingsides. What China does, ltr does.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Pure coincidence. This is the time of year ltr’s work group heads to Hainan for a workshop on KGB brainwashing techniques.

      2. Moses Herzog

        It’s important to keep in mind, the donald trumps of the world aren’t the real threat. There are probably hundreds of donald trumps in our midst. But none of those donald trumps carry any threat at all, or power, unless you have a mass of illiterate and uneducated people there to put the seedlings into. And it takes very little intelligence at all to lead the ignorant American public around by the nose, like children. Just ask Paul Furber or Ron Watkins. Two men of probably barely median intelligence:
        https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/technology/qanon-messages-authors.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

        Mr Furber, Mr Watkins, and donald trump, all three have proven it just doesn’t take a lot to fool the average American citizen/voter. It’s just not that difficult. Our friend “ltr” almost looks “sophisticated” when measured against those 3 pedestrian con men.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Macroduck,

        Apparently you missed that China’s foreign minister addressed the conference in Munich to which he declared that China opposes an invasion of Ukraine. Where China does agree with Putin’s position is that they oppose Ukraine joining NATO. But while there may not be some promise that Ukraine can never join NATO, pretty much all parties agree that is not something likely to happen any time soon, despite Putin’s apparent hysteria over this possibility.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,’

            Again you provide links that do not back up what you say. The headline is an exaggeration that amounts to that China will not vote against Russia in the Security Council if it invades Ukraine, but otherwise does not support an invasion of Ukraine, as its foreign minister has expressly said. Otherwise, they will not participare in economic sanctions, but nobody expected that anyway. They do not want the invasion.

            Obviously ltr’s silence reflects this middle position of China: they oppose an invasion, but they also support some of Putin’s demands. They really wish the whole thing would go away, although Putin did respect their wish not to invade while the Olympics were on. But now they are over, which does raise the threat level.

            On the embassy issue, you continue to be incoherent and without logic. Sorry, it is either Scenario 5 in which case Kyiv is not attacked ot it is 6 in which case L’viv will also get attacked. No point in moving the embassy whatsoever.

          2. Moses Herzog

            I guess I’m gonna have to drive to Virginia, hold you by the hand like a dutiful father reading slowly and gently to his learning disabled pre-teen daughter and see who has better listening comprehension, you or the Roanoke meth-heads:
            “Instead, China would show it is a reliable friend by not joining the international chorus of condemnation if Russia invades Ukraine.

            China was the only country to vote with Russia last month in a failed bid to stop the 15-member U.N. Security Council from meeting, at the request of the United States, on Russia’s troop build-up on Ukraine’s borders.

            That went further than in 2014, when China abstained from voting on a U.S.-drafted Security Council resolution urging countries not to recognise Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region.

            Experts also said China could expand economic cooperation with Russia that would blunt the impact of sanctions promised by the West if there is an invasion.

            After Russia’s invasion of Crimea, several Chinese state banks, including China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China provided loans for Russian state-owned banks that were sanctioned by the West.”

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Yes, Moses, we all got this. Don’t you understand that when you embolden stuff that we all know you just super reinforce what a d.a. you are? You have made a complete fool of yourself with a string of totally ignorant and d.a. remarks. Highlighting stuff that we all know does not get you out of the hole you are in.

            Want to lecture us on “south east Romania”?

            Oh, and as for the embassy, if Russia does attack Lyiv there will be a set of structures they will go out of their way not to bomb or attack. At the top of the list will be the ancient monasteries Putin sees as embodying the soul of Kievan Rus, his fantasy of the unity of Russians, Ukrainians, ans Belarusians. But right after that will be embassies. So the US embassy will not be bombed, and US diplomats will not be seized as hostage POWs. That there is a reason to move families and support personal out of the country is that bombing might hit residences and other buildings. But the embassy will get hit only as a matter of major accident/messup.

    2. Ivan

      Putin’s Ukraine policies have definitely had a strong element of punishment – deterance to it since 2014. Question is how much is the west willing to invest in countering the effects of that policy.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Some of these people have been given Russian citizenship. The economies of the republics have become total wrecks, making them totally not role models for any other parts of Ukraine to follow, even those with substantial Russian minorities. The Scenario 5 that would involve Putin conquering all those parts of Ukraine, the east and southern coast, would encounter serious resistance, even if Putin is not fully aware of that. They do not want him coming in at all any more, even if in the past many in those areas might have been more welcoming.

      In any case, it may not be unreasonable to let some of those people who have become Russian citizens just move to Russia and get out of those basket case republics, disasters in and of themselves that Putin has put into the condition they are in. Indeed, it may be that cutting s deal that brings peace to those separatist republics is what will bring this bad situation to an end. That would involve Zelensky having to agree to things that the more fervent nationalists in his nation will oppose, a reason why indeed the Minsk Accords have not been carried out, which were supposed to have settled that situation.

      1. 2slugbaits

        This might be a case of “beware of getting what you ask for.” Economically those “basket case republics” might be a significant economic drain on an already weak Russian economy.

        I’m wondering about some of the risks that Putin is taking that don’t seem to be getting a lot of media attention:

        (1) Kaliningrad and the Russian Oblast could be completely dependent upon support from Russia’s Baltic fleet if NATO countries decide to include that region in economic sanctions. I doubt that the Baltic Fleet is up to the job of supporting Kaliningrad in the dead of winter.

        (2) Just a few months ago Belarus had to call upon Russian forces to put down demonstrations in the street. An invasion of Ukraine could easily spill into an already unsteady Belarus…especially a Ukranian government in exile survives in the areas bordering Belarus. Can Putin really afford diverting some of his army into an effort to keep the lid on Belarus?

        (3) The Russian army has a very high tooth-to-tail ratio. Given the intensity of recent “training exercises” you have to wonder how much of the Russian army’s operational readiness has already been consumed in high optempo training. I’m not convinced that the Russian army’s logistics system could sustain a prolonged “boots on the ground” effort.

        Somewhere I read that Putin’s biggest fear is a replay of what happened to the Romanian autocrat Ceaușescu back in 1989. He might start worrying about that prospect if a large number of body bags start coming back to Moscow.

  11. rsm

    What if each Russian soldier got a Fed dollar-denominated CBDC inflation-proofed basic income? Might a lot of them quit?

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