Wisconsin Employment, 1990-2021

Senator Ron Johnson has recently observed:

“It’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin.”

Current Wisconsin employment (according to private nonfarm payroll numbers) are shown below.

Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). +250K by January 2015 (red), both on log scale. Light orange denotes Walker administrations. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.

As Wisconsinites will recall, as late as August 2013, Governor Walker was reiterating his campaign promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs by the end of his first term (January 2015). In July 2018, Wisconsin’s private sector net job creation surpassed Walker’s promised target — a full 3.5 years late. The current number of jobs in Wisconsin is now 2.2% (57,000) below what Scott Walker promised to achieve by January 2015.

 

58 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment, 1990-2021”

  1. Moses Herzog

    I hope Tony Evers (this is not veiled criticism) will use this as added motivation to look for jobs in other places, other sources. That doesn’t mean offering up candy goodies and tax rebates galore. But it does mean looking at the natural advantages Wisconsin has, and human resources and trying to match things up, and being “flexible” if a small tax rebate or “temporary” gift, or maybe incentives for longterm habitation if factories stay X number of years in the state but walk away with nothing if they leave early.

    I don’t think municipalities or states are getting that much advantage if they forfeit tax revenues to whoever walks by. The Olympics has shown that these things aren’t what people think in their minds. Many cities had a negative result when all the debits and credits got tabulated.

  2. Moses Herzog

    I got a gargantuan can of “Miller High Life” tonight at the supermarket. I’m probably gonna save it for when I don’t feel very good in about 36 hours (“hair of the dog” and that). BUt you know the biggest charge I got out of getting this large can of beer?? It said in pretty large letters (large for a beer can anyway) “UNION MADE”. I almost got a hard on reading that.

  3. Moses Herzog

    https://sports.yahoo.com/us-born-figure-skater-zhu-144201730.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
    “upset” and “embarrassed” for what?? Mainland Chinese people’s great caring about gender rights?? “upset” and “embarrassed about Great caring for mainland China’s young women?? Tell me where to start here, and I’ll “take up the cause” for mainland China’s great concern for ANYONE but themselves. Your new son-in-law is your pension check, and what was the ice skater a part of that plan, Hiding Grandma in the closet while telling me mainland Chinese care for the elderly more than Ameirfcnas?? Please tell me WHICH LIE, we’re going with tonight?? Tell me if you as a mainland Chinese can go 3 consecutivbe sentences without lying to me or anyone??

    Menzie, Thank the GODS~~~ Buddhist or otherwise, who told your ancestors to GTF out of there. Signed, your idiot white brother

  4. Macroduck

    Poor, sad little Econned will declare you haven’t provided sufficient evidence…of whatever he declares you must provide evidence of. Econned has declared that he gets to declare stuff like that. Heck, he may declare that you lose because you didn’t use italics. He may declare that you are a turtle. If provoked,, he may use many,, many word in itemized, numbered lists, so watch yourself. He gets to declare stuff like that. That’s how important poor, sad little Econned is.

    1. pgl

      Exhibit A of what you said:

      Econned
      February 8, 2022 at 4:58 am

      Of course given the high price of food – word salad should be appreciated.

  5. Moses Herzog

    Zhu Yi is kinda a “rolling stone” now if you stop and think about it. She gave up on citizenship in America (to “prove” her Chinese-i-ness) and then was treated incredibly rudely by her ancestor’s land. But you know she she loves China, That’s why she feels ashamed, for no good reason. So she gave up citizenship to one nation, to be roundly insulted by her “new” nation. So she’s that “rolling stone”~~~ kinda nowhere. But she’s talented and strong. Her Dad is teaching in China now?? She’s gonna make it out strong like strong people do. If she wants to “stick it out” in China, then I hope she does, if she wants to go back to America I hope she does, I hope she gets what she wants, where she will be happy Isn;t that waht you wish for people you care for, that happy ending??

  6. Econned

    And here we have Menzie Chinn seemingly attempting to persuade guests that one politician’s campaign promise in 2013 regarding private sector jobs is somehow evidence that a separate politician’s comments (made in 2022) on jobs are related, if not evidence that the latter’s comment is somehow in err. And to top it all off, Menzie seems to be suggesting that employment levels are the same as jobs and doing so while the nation is recovering from a global pandemic. If Menzie cared about honestly refuting Johnson’s comments (and Menzie is already two blog posts deep in covering Johnson’s comment so his intent is clear) he could at least attempt to address/refute Johnson’s claim in its entirety.

    Full disclosure: If I were a Wisconsinite I’d be pretty upset with Johnson but as someone who dislikes partisan and disingenuous analysis, I certainly don’t agree with Menzie’s attempt at ”analysis”.

    1. pgl

      My – that is the most word salad I have ever seen. I trust you are using blue cheese dressing with that.

    3. pgl

      “as someone who dislikes partisan and disingenuous analysis”.

      Oh please – you have never provided a real analysis on anything here. Just your usual pointless chirping. BTW – Dr. Chinn has noted that real wages in his state are down while employment growth has been less than what was forecasted by the crowd you felt the need to defend. He challenged you to provide whatever economic analysis you thought might explain these facts. And what did you do – duck as you continued your worthless chirping. I guess basic microeconomics is something else you dislike.

      1. Econned

        I didn’t “defend” any “crowd”. Please check your fragile emotions before replying.

        I have made no stance as it relates to employment growth and/or there being “enough jobs” in Wisconsin. I am merely pointing out that Menzie is failing at supporting his stance. You’re terribly confused as your emotions are blinding you. Please try to do better.

          1. Econned

            At least you’re acknowledging your comment was idiotic and not thought out. This is a typical response from you. You are worthless. Entertaining? Sometimes. Worthless? Always. You never have anything tangible to say. It’s hilarious. And hilarious is what a clown is supposed to be. But your attempts at relevance are oh so tragic. Put the two together and your get PaGLiacci. It’s perfect.

    4. Barkley Rosser

      Econned,

      Wow! I must admit that you have finally scored big time. Of course employment levels have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with jobs. how dare Menzie suggest such an obviously absurd people. People who are employed do not have jobs, they have jerbs. And people who have jobs are amployed. Everybody knows these definite facts. Shame on Menzie!

      1. Econned

        And here’s Barkley Rosser misinterpreting my comments. Only the most idiotic or the most dishonest would suggest what you have. The old slime bag is back to his old ways. You’re really pathetic, old man. Shameful, in fact.

        1. pgl

          Poor little Econned. Everyone misrepresent what he said. Which is pretty funny as the only thing you have ever said is pure word salad.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Econned,

          “misinterpreting your comments”? Sorry, they were plain as day and repeated. His reporting on employment levels did not in your view address the question of the number of jobs in Wisconsin. You said this did not suffice to prove his case. Of course, you had invisible goal posts as you never said what would, but suggested it was his “duty” to somehow get to your invisible goal posts. He asked you to provide some data or ideas, but, no, not you, too busy calling people names. When he brought up wages behavior, you dissed this as not sufficient to reach your invisible goal posts either, or maybe it did, but you moved them, as you always do. And even now, while trying to sit on a high horse, you have offered exactly zero that would add a single scintilla of substance to this discussion, just a lot of dissing and name calling and ranting about your invisible moving goal posts.

          No, Econned, you are the one who is what you call others, in this case “idiotic” and “most dishonest” not to mention from earlier “slimy” and “degenerate.” Want to revisit your public airing you so bizarrely engaged in? No, we are moving beyond that. But you need to clean up your act. Best way to do that would be to either actually start making substantive points or else STFU.

          As it is, you are still on the record as ridiculing the idea that talking about employment has anything to do with the state of the job market. And this is indeed overwhelmingly idiotic, one of the stupidest things ever argued on this blog.

  7. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-08/Chinese-mainland-records-105-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17tFCGUs12w/index.html

    February 7, 2022

    Chinese mainland reports 105 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 79 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, with 45 linked to local transmissions and 34 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Monday.

    A total of 51 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 876 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 106,419, with the death toll remaining unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-08/Chinese-mainland-records-105-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17tFCGUs12w/img/f1721ee92c1e4cb38ad21a9c4b1f98a6/f1721ee92c1e4cb38ad21a9c4b1f98a6.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-08/Chinese-mainland-records-105-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17tFCGUs12w/img/1d27482f474e4359a517a3355282df43/1d27482f474e4359a517a3355282df43.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-08/Chinese-mainland-records-105-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17tFCGUs12w/img/a374cf4c1a11446eacc4c742467ecd43/a374cf4c1a11446eacc4c742467ecd43.jpeg

      1. Anonymous

        biden said he would stop covid…..

        us estimate passed 900,000 dead with covid

        far more with the guy who didn’t delivery

        than with the evil orangeman!

        1. pgl

          Biden never claimed he could eliminate this virus. That would be your boy Trump back in early April 2020 when he told us it would all just wash away by Easter 2020. How did that work out troll?

    1. pgl

      Oh gee – are you still trying to get on Fox and Friends or what? Read my comment before you do as exports rose in 2021. Yes imports rose more – a strong economy has that effect. Now go back to your praying oil prices sky rocket.

    2. pgl

      pgl
      February 8, 2022 at 10:44 am

      Just in case you missed a real comment. Now good luck getting invited to Fox and Friends.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Steven,

          Do please keep in mind that at least for the US economy now, immigration, both legal and illegal, is good for the US economy. Also, given the lower crime rate of immigrants, even the illegal ones, it lowers the crime rate too.

      1. pgl

        Real exports up. Real imports up even more as the US had a strong recovery. Do us a favor – demand Princeton Steve actually look at the data before his next MAGA rant.

    2. ltr

      I would argue that the increase in the trade deficit was significantly determined through the former administration by the punishing and economic sanctions ridden policies followed. The Biden administration has broadened and deepened sanctions policy.

    1. pgl

      You are just praying for a housing crash – aren’t you? Of course you deserve a lollipop for FINALLY figuring out that the cost of capital matters. Now if we can get you to work on expected future cash flows!

  12. ltr

    Importantly, Argentina which has been struggling economically has become part of the Belt and Road as a trade and investment partner with China. The Chinese will build an advanced nuclear power plant for Argentina. Immediately and typically though Argentina was declared a “security risk” to the United States and the Biden administration was asked in Congress to look to the Monroe Doctrine to take back control of Argentina. The Biden administration is continuing and deepening the policy of the former president to China and repeatedly striking out against China.

    1. ltr

      https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1251555.shtml

      February 6, 2022

      Argentina officially joins BRI in major boost for China-Latin America cooperation

      Argentina has officially joined the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the 50th anniversary of China-Argentina diplomatic ties, with top leaders from both countries expressing their willingness to further deepen bilateral cooperation as well as cooperation between China and Latin America.

      Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Argentine President Alberto Fernandez in Beijing on Sunday after Fernandez attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games. Following the meeting, a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership with the signing of a series of documents for future cooperation was released.

      In a major step, officials from China and Argentina signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation within the framework of the BRI, aiming to promote the construction of the BRI in Argentina and cooperation in various fields, including policy communication, connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, people-to-people exchanges, and third-party markets, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, said on Sunday.

      During the meeting, Xi stressed that the two countries should promote the high-quality construction of the BRI and implement existing major cooperation projects such as hydropower plants and railways, while giving full play to their complementary advantages and deepening cooperation in various fields.

      In addition to the MoU on BRI cooperation, the two countries also signed cooperation documents for over ten areas, including green development, the digital economy, aerospace, the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, technological innovation and agriculture….

    2. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      Oh my, you are repeating some CCP line that is just completely off the wall here. Arguably some in the US supported the coup that led to military dictatorship of Argentina long ago, but the US has never occupied or conttolled Argentina. The claim that somebody in the US Congress is somehow demanding that Biden invoke the Monroe Doctrine to “to take back control” of Argentina, is, sorry, just a flat out lie.

  14. Bruce Hall

    From The Wall Street Journal; February 4, 2022:

    Who knows what to make of Friday’s report on January jobs? The employer survey showed a blowout of 467,000 net new jobs for the month, but the numbers were skewed by major Labor Department revisions for the U.S. population and civilian employment. Without those changes, the jobs number would have declined. Add the complexities of adjusting for winter weather and Covid’s Omicron variant, and no one should make too much of this one monthly report.

    The number worth pondering is the increase of 0.7% in average hourly earnings in the month. That’s a barn-burner number—9.2% at an annual rate. Hourly wages are up 5.7% over the last 12 months, and they are rising fast. That’s good news for workers, who are getting raises that are trying to keep pace with inflation. Employers are paying more—and not only to the hospitality and leisure workers they are trying to lure back to work amid Covid. Wage gains are moving across the workforce, including in supervisory positions.

    The news is more troubling for the Federal Reserve, which has to make sense of these numbers as the central bankers try to figure out whether and how much to raise interest rates in March. The magnitude and breadth of the wage gains suggest that inflation is going to be stickier than optimists hope.

    That seemed to be the market’s interpretation on Friday, with speculation that the jobs figures and wage increases mean that a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase might even be on the table when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets. That would be fine with us, since we can’t recall a time when inflation was this high (7%) and rates were this low (near-zero).

    But asset prices may feel the pain. The Fed has its work cut out escaping the price predicament it has helped to create.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wages-of-inflation-labor-department-jobs-federal-reserve-11644014550

    1. pgl

      Someone has the household survey confused with the payroll survey. Look Bruce – try learning how BLS reporting works before you once again embarrass your mother.

    2. pgl

      Anyone who read this headline would instantly know this WSJ fluff was STOOOPID:

      The Wages of Inflation
      Average hourly earnings are up 5.7% in a year, and they’re rising fast

      Nominal wages did rise by 5.7% in 2021 but does the utter moron who wrote this ill informed fluff not realize that CPI rose by 7%? Inflation is part of his headline. And yet this WSJ nut job thinks workers are better off? Come on Bruce – please stop posting some of the dumbest stuff ever written as this is getting old.

  15. Bruce Hall

    Not sure if this went through the first time, so I’ll repeat and you (Menzie) can delete if it’s a repeat.

    From The Wall Street Journal; February 4, 2022

    Who knows what to make of Friday’s report on January jobs? The employer survey showed a blowout of 467,000 net new jobs for the month, but the numbers were skewed by major Labor Department revisions for the U.S. population and civilian employment. Without those changes, the jobs number would have declined. Add the complexities of adjusting for winter weather and Covid’s Omicron variant, and no one should make too much of this one monthly report.

    The number worth pondering is the increase of 0.7% in average hourly earnings in the month. That’s a barn-burner number—9.2% at an annual rate. Hourly wages are up 5.7% over the last 12 months, and they are rising fast. That’s good news for workers, who are getting raises that are trying to keep pace with inflation. Employers are paying more—and not only to the hospitality and leisure workers they are trying to lure back to work amid Covid. Wage gains are moving across the workforce, including in supervisory positions.

    The news is more troubling for the Federal Reserve, which has to make sense of these numbers as the central bankers try to figure out whether and how much to raise interest rates in March. The magnitude and breadth of the wage gains suggest that inflation is going to be stickier than optimists hope.

    That seemed to be the market’s interpretation on Friday, with speculation that the jobs figures and wage increases mean that a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase might even be on the table when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets. That would be fine with us, since we can’t recall a time when inflation was this high (7%) and rates were this low (near-zero).

    But asset prices may feel the pain. The Fed has its work cut out escaping the price predicament it has helped to create.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wages-of-inflation-labor-department-jobs-federal-reserve-11644014550

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Bruce Hall: Er, population controls pertain to the CPS. NFP is from CES. As I noted, if seasonal adjustment were a problem in the aggregate number (FRED series PAYEMS or USPRIV), then the change in the Not Seasonally Adjusted and the Seasonally Adjusted growth rates would diverge. Apparently, you did not see the entire post with graphs that showed this was not the case. Are you even reading the things you responding to?

      1. pgl

        Thank you! Of course Bruce Hall will need to consult with Kelly Anne Conway as he has no clue what you are saying!

      2. pgl

        “The news is more troubling for the Federal Reserve, which has to make sense of these numbers as the central bankers try to figure out whether and how much to raise interest rates in March.”

        This WSJ line is kind of rich since the author of this fluff does not know the difference between the Household Survey v. the Payroll Survey.

        Bruce Hall has a real talent for constantly digging up the writings of some of the dumbest people ever.

      3. Bruce Hall

        Just passing on the WSJ article which I think has the main point that the labor department made the series somewhat discontinuous by changing some input data. It did not clarify how often that is done.

        I did see you post on seasonality and accept that the changes may be too minor to affect the calculation. The WSJ article did not seem to argue seasonality was the issue.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Bruce Hall: Paragraph 1 of your quote includes: “Add the complexities of adjusting for winter weather…” Would you like to extend and revise your assertion the WSJ didn’t argue seasonality was an issue?

          1. pgl

            Bruce comment had this in bold:

            “but the numbers were skewed by major Labor Department revisions for the U.S. population and civilian employment.”

            Remind me – did the WSJ discussion have this in bold or did Bruce do that as a way of emphasizing this absurd claim?

    2. pgl

      We heard you the first time when you ran through the halls with your pants down screaming “I have no clue what I am saying”. This second episode is now getting the little kids laughing at you!

    1. pgl

      FRED has the 30-year at only 3.55% (not 4%) but then note its latest reporting was for Feb. 3. Given the volatility of interest rates, it may have hit 4% today. Now that is not necessarily where interest rates will be a week from now but we know Princeton Steve is praying for both a housing crash as well as sky high gasoline prices. He is that kind of dude!

      1. Steven Kopits

        FRED usually posts with a lag. I was offered 3.75% for a 30 year fixed a month ago. Rates have risen by 0.4% since then. 3.8% was the last number I saw published.

        1. Steven Kopits

          And I mentioned this because Menzie had asked me how I saw real estate prices reversing. As I recall, I said I thought 30 fixeds would rise to the 4-5% range. We seem to be on track for that.

          1. pgl

            Cheering for the housing crash just like you are cheering for higher gasoline prices. But again – a lollipop for finally figuring out that the cost of capital affects valuations. Now work on discounted cash flow and we may give you an ice cream cone too!

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