Russian GDP Prospects Visualized

Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:

Figure 1: Russian GDP in billions Ch.2000Rubles (red), IMF January WEO forecast (red circle), GS forecasts of 3/3 (red square), of 2/24 (salmon square), all on a log scale. Levels for 2021Q4, 2022Q4 calculated using growth rates. Source: OECD via FRED, IMF, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations. 

If the GS forecast (incorporating sanctions effects and a heightened interest rate) were to prove correct, then this downturn would dwarf the 2014 recession.

Obviously, a cessation of hostilities might drastically change the situation. However, it’s been pointed out that economic sanctions tend to be “sticky” (listen here OMFIF podcast, also FT today), so unless everything is completely resolved in an unexpectedly amicable way, we may be in a world of severe economic sanctions for a while.

 

144 thoughts on “Russian GDP Prospects Visualized”

  1. T. Shaw

    Seems as if the 2014 decline in Russian GDP didn’t deter the 2022 adventure.

    Ukraine and likely Russia (too) will export significantly reduced wheat tonnage in 2022.

    1. pgl

      Document this alleged 2014 decline. I’m sorry but you have lied to us before so no one is going to take you at your word now.

      3. JohnH

        Funny! Krugman has once again taken to predicting economic doomsday for Russia, just as he did back in 2014: “ For those who haven’t been keeping track: The ruble has been sliding gradually since August, when Mr. Putin openly committed Russian troops to the conflict in Ukraine. A few weeks ago, however, the slide turned into a plunge. Extreme measures, including a huge rise in interest rates and pressure on private companies to stop holding dollars, have done no more than stabilize the ruble far below its previous level. And all indications are that the Russian economy is heading for a nasty recession.
        https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/opinion/paul-krugman-putins-bubble-bursts.html

        But, pgl (helpfully actually!) showed us that “ From 2014 to 2015 there was a very modest and temporary decline.”

        I wonder if Krugman bothered to look at his past rants. And I wonder if pgl will call Krugman dishonest and stupid as he calls so many…

      1. pgl

        You and T. Shaw must be in some strange contest for the most cryptic worthless comment ever.

        1. Steven Kopits

          Do you understand the difference between deterrence and punishment? The difference between compliance and enforcement? You don’t seem to.

          1. pgl

            Do you know how to write complete and coherent sentences? If you do – start doing so (without your usual long winded rants). That was my point. Maybe sometime with your preK English teacher is a good idea for you.

      2. Ivan

        Don’t try to get all smart with big words.

        Punishment IS deterrence (as in “don’t you ever do something like this again!”, “don’t any of you onlookers ever do something like this!”). Why else would this country have filled up its prisons with 2 million minorities. It’s not a problem, it’s a feature.

        1. Steven Kopits

          No, Ivan, deterrence means that you don’t have to punish someone because they were deterred from the bad action. What we want is compliance (ie, deterrence), not enforcement (ie, punishment). These are wholly different things, although in the conservative mind they are often confused.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Steven,

        Well, the threat of possible punishment is supposed to act as deterrence. Thus we had Zelensky and GOP in Congress wanting Biden to impose economic sanctions on Russia even before Putin invaded. They were held back with the threat supposed to act as a deterrent, but this obviously did not work out, so now they are being imposed as punishment.

        As tt is, prior to the invasion Putin was reported to have dismissed sanctions with something along the lines of “they will sanction us no matter what,” which was not the case. They were being held back. But many think he underestimated how severe the sanctions would be as those in 2014 were not all that substantial. We shall see if they lead to anybody removing Putin out of disgust.

        1. Steven Kopits

          Biden’s chickens**t [edited MDC] deterrence did not work. Nor was it expected to, by the President’s own words.

          You know the Russians. You deter them by standing strong, not by threatening to take away their ATM cards (something which they won’t appreciate until you take away their ATM cards).

        2. Steven Kopits

          The threat of sanctions failed to deter Putin. Even the president said he expected them to fail. If the plan was to prevent a war in Ukraine, President Biden himself did not believe in the administration’s chosen strategy. Pathetic. If the playground monitor can be scared off by a minor bully, the playground is not going to be a safe place.

  2. pgl

    https://9gag.com/gag/awzgKyB

    The staff of a Russian TV station walked off set with its last words “No War” and now this channel only plays Swan Lake, which harkens back to how TV stations in 1991 recognized that the Soviet Union had collapsed.

  3. ltr

    As Paul Krugman rightly finds the work of N Angell (1910) important in understanding the consequences of this war, so I would suggest that “The Economic Consequences of the Peace” (1919) by JM Keynes will be as relevant as this war ends.

    1. ltr

      https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/07/opinion/keynes-economic-consequences-peace.html

      December 7, 2019

      The Man Who Predicted Nazi Germany
      In 1919, John Maynard Keynes foresaw the chaos that would follow from the Versailles peace treaty.
      By Jonathan Kirshner

      On Dec. 8, 1919, Macmillan Press published a book by a relatively obscure British Treasury official who had resigned from the government in protest over the Versailles treaty that brought the epochal trauma of the First World War to its conclusion.

      The small treatise, the official wrote, sought to explain “the grounds of his objection to the treaty, or rather to the whole policy of the conference towards the economic problems of Europe.” A conservative print of 5,000 copies seemed right for a technocrat’s dissent, which featured meticulously detailed passages that pored over the history and prospects of things like Germany’s coal production and export markets.

      The book, “The Economic Consequences of the Peace,” turned out to be a phenomenon….

      Jonathan Kirshner is a professor of political science and international studies at Boston College.

  4. Macroduck

    Russian output fell by nearly 8% in 2009, the result of the global contraction, transmitted in large measure through financial shock and a sharp drop in oil revenue.

    There is great uncertainty associated with the Goldman estimate, but it is entirely reasonable. Without knowing enough to have a serious opinion, an estimate less bad than 2009 seems conservative, given the extent of financial and economic stress now on Russia.

      1. T. Shaw

        T said, “Seems as if the 2014 decline in Russian GDP didn’t deter the 2022 adventure.”

        It ain’t a lie if it’s occurring in real time. EEEJIOT.

        1. pgl

          A 2% decline which reversed itself the next year. That is the hill you want to plant your puny little flag on? I see the other kiddies in preK class are all laughing at you.

    2. Moses Herzog

      I thought this was interesting reading. Curious if anyone of Menzie’s regulars (in comments or the usually silent part of Menzie’s and Professor Hamilton’s audience) had any thoughts on this:
      https://www.ft.com/content/e8705d48-bfea-4f95-af3b-af13c1e4305d#comments-anchor

      Sometimes these type headline articles are manufactured to get web clicks. So I’m curious if anyone knowledgable in this area would verify Milne’s contentions on workarounds from SWIFT. Thanks ahead of time to anyone who would care to edify me. I’m still curious how China will behave here. I am hoping Menzie ends up being correct here, that China may not offer up too many loans to Russia, though I have some doubts.

      1. baffling

        this is similar to what I have also heard, from different sources. I do not know the swift system. however, as the article noted, it is a messaging system rather than a fund transfer system. while not always easy, my understanding is that workarounds can exist. I think this is one reason they did not institute the ban immediately. other sanctions would actually have bite. I think the swift sanctions were eventually added to appease a vocal group of people, even though they probably did not change events on the ground. but if it silences a critic, at really no cost, then by all means banish Russia from swift. but it is not the panacea some make it out to be.

  5. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-03/China-s-Paralympic-competitiveness-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-184XYh6d22A/index.html

    March 3, 2022

    China’s Paralympic competitiveness just the tip of the iceberg
    By Timothy Kerswell

    On March 3, China’s State Council Information Office released a white paper * titled “China’s Parasports: Progress and the Protection of Rights.” The event included a press conference and highlights disability issues to coincide with the upcoming Beijing Winter Paralympic Games.

    For the first time at the Winter Paralympics, China will compete in 78 different events across all the six sports: wheelchair curling, para ice hockey, cross-country skiing, biathlon, Alpine skiing and snowboarding. This marks tremendous progress considering that before 2015 China had only ever competed in cross country skiing and wheelchair curling, and that in the Sochi games of 2014 only 10 athletes took part. This year China’s delegation includes 96 athletes and 121 coaches and support staff.

    But what is behind China’s recent success in Paralympic competition? Western observers like Emily Feng from the U.S. National Public Radio group comment that “[China’s] method for success. Substantial state funding and a highly competitive track for identified athletic talent.” In one sense, Feng is right — China is serious about disability sport. Where most countries follow a “self-funded” model of disability sport where athletes contribute their own money or seek private sponsorship, China’s athletes are predominantly state-funded. This allows athletes from a variety of different social backgrounds to participate and devote their time to the extensive training required for elite level competition.

    But there’s an underlying cynicism and disparagement of China’s achievements in disability sport inherent in much western commentary, as if China just became a great and powerful country economically and achieved its Paralympic success by way of a “pipeline” of money from the central government to its sports administration committees, which then creates a similar “pipeline” of athletes from the local to the Olympic level.

    The implicit argument is that China hasn’t done much for those of its citizens who have disabilities, but focused on the image-building exercise of “winning” the games. Not only does this analysis underestimate the extent of China’s achievements on disability issues, but it also belies a fundamental lack of understanding about social policy and the drivers of its success. Simply put, Paralympic athletes aren’t “pipelined” products but rather the product of the overall social development in China. China is achieving Paralympic success because on the whole people with disabilities in China are experiencing a steady improvement in their economic and social position.

    Nobody, including China’s government, has ever argued that China is a perfect place when it comes to disability issues. However, China has maintained a commitment to the improvement of the status and living conditions of people with disabilities for a very long time. China is one of the few countries that give constitutional recognition to the specific aim of improving the lives of people with disability. Since the adoption of the new Constitution with amendments made in 1982, the country has made significant progress on this issue.

    It’s important to remember that China is a developing country with a large population. By default, this also means it has a large population with disabilities, over 85 million people. A comprehensive response to this question requires serious resources, long-term policy and institutional development. When we consider that China’s disabled population is larger than most of the world’s countries, it gives us some concept of the scale of the policy challenge we are considering. In addition, about 75 percent of people with disabilities in China live in rural areas, adding another dimension of challenge.

    China has adopted a multi-layered strategy, the foundation of which relates to the overall economic development of the country to guarantee the necessary resources to respond to this and many other policy questions….

    * https://english.news.cn/20220303/bd5258c6f46f4a74a609468d1ee60416/c.html

    1. ltr

      Clarifying quote:

      But what is behind China’s recent success in Paralympic competition? Western observers like Emily Feng from the U.S. National Public Radio group comment that

      “China has dominated the medal count at the last five consecutive Paralympic Games and is projected to sweep again this year. Its method for success? Substantial state funding and a highly competitive track for identified athletic talent.”

      In one sense, Feng is right — China is serious about disability sport. Where most countries follow a “self-funded” model of disability sport where athletes contribute their own money or seek private sponsorship, China’s athletes are predominantly state-funded. This allows athletes from a variety of different social backgrounds to participate and devote their time to the extensive training required for elite level competition….

  6. baffling

    this drop is like the pandemic related drop, or the financial crisis related drop. the difference being, in those instances the world was able to put in place stimulus plans for a recovery. that will not be available for a recovery this time around. this drop could be stunning. Ukraine will have become one very expensive piece of real estate, based on purchase price.

  7. pgl

    Sergei Lavrov wants to reassure us that there will be no nuclear war:

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/596670-lavrov-says-russia-has-no-thoughts-of-nuclear-war

    How sweet of Sergei but has he talked to his boss Putin who is mumbling about starting a nuclear war? Sergei instead is accusing Biden of talking about a nuclear war – which of course is a bald faced lie. But I guess Sergei has to kiss the feet of Putin so no one should trust a single thing Sergei has to say.

    1. Steven Kopits

      Russians desperately need to walk that back. Who would negotiate with a crazy man with his finger on the nuclear button? (Something for Xi to consider, too.)

      1. pgl

        I guess you do not know the difference between a bluff and a threat. Putin is a liar and he also to act tough hoping dummies like you take him seriously. If he wants to go nuke, Dirty Harry’s Make My Day is the right way to think about this.

        1. Steven Kopits

          You know the difference between a bluff and a threat? I think it’s a bluff. But that’s ‘think’, not ‘know’.

  8. Ivan

    Even if all sanctions were to be lifted next week the lessons would not be unlearned that quickly. Russia is just not a country where you want to put investment money – too risky. You do not want to make your business (or country) dependent on anything imported from Russia – too risky. Even with oil prices going way up a lot of companies don’t want to buy Russian oil because they don’t want to take the risk of violating sanctions.

  9. pgl

    Putin claimed, without evidence, in a live TV address that Ukrainian forces had tortured and killed Russian prisoners of war and were using human shields. He said Russia’s troops were fighting “so we can’t be threatened by an anti-Russia right on our borders that the West has been creating for years.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/ukraine-war-refugee-exodus-has-reached-a-million-says-un-as-russia-takes-over-kherson

    What an incredible pack of lies? Putin reminds me a lot of Donald Trump.

  11. pgl

    Lukoil is Russia’s 2nd largest oil and gas multinational. It put up on its website a call for the end of the Putin invasion. And right on cue – Putin’s thugs shut down its website.

  12. Bruce Hall

    This is an outstanding discussion regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the place of the U.S. in the world moving forward. Certainly little consensus among the participants, but good arguments.

    https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-a-roundtable?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0Njc4MDYzOCwiXyI6Ik5JM2NCIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQ2MzQzMTg1LCJleHAiOjE2NDYzNDY3ODUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjAzNDciLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.ifRFQIuQ3FkB39iM62CtQ-6wheAI2KxTQTCi5GRsFjU&s=r

  13. Barkley Rosser

    Folks,

    Nobody accepted the invitation last time, but I shall issue it anyway. So previously it was the more interesting and impressive Menzie, but tommorw I and my wife, Marina, will be presenting a seminar at JMU at 3:30 EST. It will be live, but there will be a Zoom link, but you will need to email me to get it if you want to check it out. We shall be speaking on “Comparing Alternative Economic Systems: old and New Approaches,” kind of a history of thought of the field for which we are the authors of the now most widely used textbook. At the end there will be some additional material relating our approach to some current events not in the paper, which will end up in a Handbook on Comparative Economics.

    BTW, I mentioned it previously, but anybody curious about our tale, well, there is a partial accounting of it in the current cover story in Madison Magazine, “Man in Motion,” easily found b googling. There is a photo in it of us on April 4, 1987, the day Marina arrived at Dulles Airport before we held the press conference, top story on CNN that day.

    BTW, she was supposed to travel to Moscow on March 19 to visit her mother, who turns 93 next Thursday. But her flight has been cancelled, and she is now looking at quite possibly not ever seeing her mother again in person, not a happy camper.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      pgl,

      I do not think this is going to have much impact on olive oil. Ukraine not among the top ten olive oil exporters, although Turkey is Number 6.

      1. pgl

        Good news for me as olive oil is the only vegetable oil I use. But aren’t these products supposed to be substitutes for most people?

    4. Ulenspiegel

      ” He also reminds us that Ukraine has historically exported a lot of seed oils. So stock up on your olive oil.”

      Olive oil is no seed oil, Ukraine produces sun flower oil..

      1. pgl

        Again – oils tend to be substitute for each other. But if you still have a problem with Kevin Drum’s graph, comment over at his place.

        1. Ulenspiegel

          “oils tend to be substitute for each other. ”

          For salad dressing it is a correct statement, for heating/frying where most of the oil goes it is not.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Great art can offer us an escape from things such as violent images on the TV. Or great art even at the same time can make us feel a stronger connection or common connection to the broader humanity. To remind us what we have in common, and that every ethnic group and every nation has its “bad apples”.

  16. rsm

    Is it presumptuous to say that economic incentives are failing to explain Putin’s behavior? In maximizing some irrational, idiosyncratic personal subjective utility, is he not contaminating all prices with irrationality? What good is economic theory when it is easily and regularly violated by strong men?

  17. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-jobs.html

    March 3, 2022

    America’s Very Peculiar Economic Funk
    By Paul Krugman

    I’ve been on a few trips recently and took the opportunity to do a bit of naked-eye economic assessment. As I’m sure many people can confirm, planes are flying full, while shops and restaurants are jammed. It definitely looks like a booming economy out there.

    That’s also what the numbers say. In his State of the Union address, President Biden — while acknowledging that inflation has eroded wage gains — pointed to the 6.5 million jobs added last year, “more jobs created in one year than ever before in the history of America.” This claim was entirely correct.

    Yet the public doesn’t believe it. According to a new survey by Navigator Research, only 19 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is experiencing more job growth than usual, while 35 percent say that it is experiencing more job losses than usual.

    You might be tempted to say that ordinary Americans don’t pay attention to official statistics, that what matters is their lived experience. But what people are actually experiencing in their daily lives is a very strong job market. For example, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board, 53.8 percent of consumers said that jobs were “plentiful,” a near-record, while only 11.8 percent said that jobs were hard to get. And anyone who walks around U.S. cities can see the proliferation of help-wanted signs.

    The survey results on the job market are, as I see it, the final nail in the coffin of attempts to deny that there’s something very peculiar going on with how Americans perceive the economy, that there’s a huge disconnect between economic reality, which is mixed — inflation is a big concern, but job growth has been terrific — and public perceptions, which are weirdly dismal….

    1. pgl

      The NYTimes suggested this 6.5 million being the record was not correct. ALL empirical research on the 1930’s shows that employment gains back then in every year were less than that – which means the NYTimes was clearly wrong. Yes I never disputed that Michael Darby’s paper was interesting. I did suggest it was a bit controversial. So why you had to suggest Darby wrote the authoritative piece on this era is beyond me. You little attempt to school me was totally irrelevant to the point I made and besides you are not exactly as knowledgeable on the vast research on this era as you think. Now Krugman is – and his statement is entirely correct.

      1. ltr

        So why you had to suggest Darby wrote…

        [ President Biden was correct on employment gains, as you were correct. All I needed to show was that employment gains from the beginning of the New Deal were far more dramatic than often understood. New Deal policy was a pronounced employment success from the beginning. Michael Darby’s work was important in showing the degree of the New Deal employment success.

        Mr. Biden and you were, however, correct about present employment gains. ]

    2. pgl

      ‘That’s also what the numbers say. In his State of the Union address, President Biden — while acknowledging that inflation has eroded wage gains — pointed to the 6.5 million jobs added last year, “more jobs created in one year than ever before in the history of America.” This claim was entirely correct.’

      I hope the idiot at the NY Times who suggested Biden somehow lied pays attention to his own paper’s editorial page as Krugman just called him out.

  18. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20220304/96a6ada65b774a598d588eb39e1070b1/c.html

    March 4, 2022

    Turkey’s inflation hits 54.44 pct, highest in 20 years
    Turkey’s annual inflation rose by 54.44 percent in February, the highest since 2002, the Turkish Statistical Institute announced on Thursday. Turkey has been struggling with elevated inflation, which puts pressure on its population with rising living costs.

    ANKARA — Turkey’s annual inflation rose by 54.44 percent in February, the highest since 2002, the Turkish Statistical Institute announced on Thursday.

    The country’s consumer prices soared 4.81 percent month on month in February, according to the data.

    Meanwhile, the producer price index increased by 7.22 percent on a monthly basis, with an annual rise of 105.01 percent….

    2. Ivan

      Kind of says something if your inflation is over 50% and you only have to go back 20 years to find something higher than that.

  23. Steven Kopits

    Well, if we’re going to do a pool, I will take -11% GDP peak to trough.

    No one is going to want to be seen doing business with Russia. As a result, even countries and commodities not under formal embargoes will nevertheless be embargoed. One example is crude oil, which Russia is struggling to sell and will continue to do so, even though it is not embargoed. The second is Chinese entities, notably manufacturers and banks, which will want to avoid doing business with Russia for fear of being blacklisted.

    As a result, I expect the Russian downturn to be worse than 1998 or 2008. I’d note that oil and gas sales alone are about $500 bn, that is, one-third of GDP right there. And just those could fall by anywhere from 30-50%. So that’s 10-15% of GDP right there. And of course anything with foreign components or other foreign input will be shut down. That includes, say, virtually all automobile and truck manufacture and all the airlines, which basically use Boeing or Airbus kit.

    I assume the Russians will figure out some workarounds, but a hit of 10-15% of GDP does not look beyond imagination.

    We are looking at some version of Iraq-on-the-Don, Saddam Hussein era. Really terrible stuff.

    And I have not even written about what seems to be NATO’s emerging strategy yet.

    1. pgl

      Am 11% drop would be worse than either 1998 or 2008 indeed!

      I rarely say this – but that was an interesting comment. Now the troll T. Shaw needs to pay attention unless he truly is Putin’s pet poodle.

    2. pgl

      “We are looking at some version of Iraq-on-the-Don, Saddam Hussein era. Really terrible stuff.”

      Saddam Hussein was truly evil but given how Putin is behaving now, I would argue Putin is far worse. Not that I am advocating we repeat our 2003 mistake but if someone in the Kremlin pulls off regime change – the world will celebrate including most Russians.

  25. rjs

    NB: Yergin has always been an oil bull, but he’s not given to hyperbole:

    The world could be on the brink of an energy crisis rivaling the 1970s, says IHS Markit’s Yergin

    Russia’s Ukraine invasion could have set in motion an energy market disruption on the scale of major oil crises in the 1970s, according to Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit.

    Moscow is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. Sanctions by the U.S. and allies on Russia’s financial system have already set in motion a backlash against Russian crude from banks, buyers and shippers.

    Yergin, also an author and energy market historian, said even though Russian energy was not sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries, there could be a large loss of Russian barrels from the market. The country exports about 7.5 million barrels a day of oil and refined products, he noted.

    “This is going to be a really big disruption in terms of logistics, and people are going to be scrambling for barrels,” Yergin said. “This is a supply crisis. It’s a logistics crisis. It’s a payment crisis, and this could well be on the scale of the 1970s.”

    Yergin said there are “de facto” sanctions working to keep Russian oil from the market, even though energy was not specifically sanctioned. Buyers are wary of Russian oil because of pushback from banks, ports and shipping companies that do not want to run afoul of sanctions.

    JPMorgan estimates that 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, and that crude prices could reach $185 by the end of the year if Russian oil remains disrupted.

    “This could be the worst crisis since the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution in the 1970s,” Yergin said. Both events were major oil shocks in that decade.

    1. pgl

      Is Russia cutting its oil production? I doubt it. Couldn’t OPEC produce more oil? Of course they could. Hasn’t the US moved from a major net importer of oil to a net exporter of oil? Of course it has.

      Let’s plot the inflation adjusted oil price from 1973 to 2023 and I bet this dude has gone to hyperbole. Then again – I do not pretend to be a market expert so what do I know?

      1. rjs

        pgl;
        Is Russia cutting its oil production? no, but very little is getting out of the country due to sanctions, fear of further sanctions, and threats to shipping in the Black Sea…a number of ships have been shelled
        Couldn’t OPEC produce more oil? theoretically, they could, but they are falling further behind on their quota each month, and in a 13 minute meeting on Wednesday – their shortest ever – they decided to hold production to previously announced quotas thru April….
        Hasn’t the US moved from a major net importer of oil to a net exporter of oil? no, we still import 2 to 4 million barrels per day than we export…see weekly imports here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRIMUS2&f=W
        and exports here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCREXUS2&f=W
        our exports of refinery products sometimes puts us in a net exporter position…but we still have to import a lot, including from Russia, because a substantial number of our refineries can’t use the super-light oil we produce from shale; see here: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041621-us-reliance-on-russian-oil-hits-record-high-despite-souring-ties

        if oil supplies were as hunky-dory as you suggest, it seems WTI prices would not have run up to $115.68 this week…

          1. rjs

            well, it bubbled up over $130 earlier today, good to hear you’re still paying the pre-fraud price…

      1. Moses Herzog

        Getting a sadistic laugh from all the MAGA illiterate Americans bawling on TV about the prices on gasoline while they fill up their 14 muh-puh-guh Toyota Land Cruiser or 21 muh-puh-guh in the city driving Chevy Suburban. These poor innocent souls. Neither Reagan, Dick Cheney, nor the orange abomination warned them. Not even Tucker “I Heart Putin” Carlson warned them what was coming.

    3. Steven Kopits

      This is not hyperbole in the least.

      The loss of 8 mbpd of supply — that’s Russian crude and product exports — would be very much on the scale of the worst oil shocks. Such a shock could take down Xi, by the way.

      2. Steven Kopits

        So, on paper, Xi goes down between now and 2026 sometime. There would be three expected causes:

        1. An oil shock. Things like the Arab Spring are associated with high oil prices. That could be a cause.
        2. A financial crisis, maybe associated with real estate. We have some of that.
        3. A war, like Galtieri and the Falklands.

        Yes, those would be the three standard events which could bring democracy to China, something which is arguably already overdue.

          1. Moses Herzog

            Let him embarrass himself. There’s a good chance Barkley Junior will ride his coattails of imbecility, providing us with months of near continual laughs.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            It was you and pgl who were ridiculing the idea of $100 per barrel crude oil to the point of laughing very hard. Granted it did not arrive last year, but within two months of the end of the year it did and is now a lot higher than $100. You are laughing?

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Actually let me add further on the matter of oil prices to restate a view I have previously posted here and that I think still holds and is also distinct from Steven’s. It remains the case that even as the crude price of oil has soared well beyond $100 per barrel and looks to go yet higher in the near term, it remains potentially volatile, so much so that there is a non-trivial probability we could see a price below $40 per barrel before the end of the year.

            Indeed, not to long ago I noted that we could see a price both above $100 per barrel as well as below $40 a barrel within this year. I noted that the former could come about if Putin were to invade Ukraine, which he has now done and the price has followed on what I said would happen if that happene, which I said was a serious possibility. You find this hilarious? I do not, even though it has happened.

            The circumstances that could lead to a price below $40 per barrel that I stated is also something that could happen, although it has not so far and I hope it does not. But it cannot be ruled out at all, even as at the moment it seems to be receding as a matter of focus. This is the chance that we could experience a new and deadlier and more contagious variant of Covid-19. With the Omicron variant now fading away rapidly in terms of new cases in the US, although the death rate is still only gradually declining, it might be easy to think this cannot happen. But we have now had several rounds of hopeful declines of one variant only to see another appear. I hope we do not have another one, but it is certainly not at all wildly unlikely, and without question, if the war in Ukraine comes to an end, a very deadly and transmissable new variant appears, it could lead to another collapse of global aggregate demand and thus of the crude price of oil.

            I remind you all again of something I have pointed out here numerous times: the WTI price of oil hit $147 per barrel in July 2008 whule plunging to $32 per barrel only four months later in November 2008. It happened then, not all that long ago. It could happen again, and, no, that would also not be all that hilarious.

          4. Steven Kopits

            If we lose 4 mbpd of Russian supply, expect a stiff recession. That can take oil back to $40, but that is not my expected case at present.

          5. Moses Herzog

            It’s not surprising to me that a half-senile PhD in Virginia who has made many false predictions on this blog, including that there would be “no invasion of Ukraine”, now thinks that a prediction that happened over 2 months after Kopits’ specified time interval, and after a war (again a war YOU stated would “never happen”) thinks that that same false prediction is a rhetorical “win”. And Menzie is puzzled why I use words like early dementia when addressing your comments…… ?? A false prediction on oil prices which happens over two months later than the predicted time frame and after a war YOU stated would “never happen” is your “scoring point”?? Load up on your Metamucil and clear yourself out before your next rhetorical foray please.

          6. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Oh good lord, you really are getting desperate after having made such a massive fool of yourself here. I believe there was one statement I made around New Year’s when I said there would be no invasion. Otherwise I have repeatedly said there could be, even though I viewed it as not all that likely. I note again that on that matter I was indeed drawing heavily on the nonchalance of the Ukrainians themselves who until it happened were clearly and openly disbelieving there would be an invasion. But I have almost always noted it was possible aside from one comment you cherry picked to highlight from me.

            As for oil prices, my position was never that oil prices were definitely going to hit $100 per barrel or be below $40 per barrel. I noted that those prices were within reasonable probability bounds of happening, but that what would happen would depend on all sorts of things that could not be definitely predicted, in particular a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia that has now come to pass in a full blown form, and an outbreak of a new nasty variant of Covid-19, with the last new variant more contagious than earlier ones but less deadly. A newer one can still happen that could be both deadlier and more transmissable, although I hope it does not, just as I hoped there would be no invasion of Ukraine by Russia, that hope not coming to pass.

            BTW, on whether or not I am demented or not for having at one point said there would be no invasion by Putin of Ukraine, do you think that President Zelensky is demented? That was his prediction much more strongly than mine. With the exception of one post on New Year’s Eve, I have always allowed for the possibility of such an invasion in many many posts here.

            You really do not have much to stand on with this stuff, Moses. And if you are so convinced that I am so incredibly out of it, why have you not shown up at one of the JMU seminars to let everybody know your great discovery that somehow people here seem not to have found out? I mean, if you are right, you would be performing this great public service. But, of course, you do not, perhaps because you actually know better, despite all your loud posts here with all the emboldened letters showing you shouting and screaming at a blank wall.

          7. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, Moses, anybody following things here will know that I have provided a large amount of useful and accurate information about the history, geography, languages, cutture, and economies of Ukraine and Russia that nobody else here has provided. Have you provided anything remotely as useful or unknown by others here? I cannot think of a single thing.

            Of course you have made absurd efforts to find fault with certain things I have written about. An obvious example was your wild effort to somehow claim that the now closed Echo of Moscow radio station was not at all independent because it was owned by the Russian government. But then it turns out that it was only partly owned by the state and that indeed it was semi-independent, which was what I said from the beginning. So, you misrepresented what I said and you were actually wrong about your factual claims.

          8. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            You’ve also lost your sense of time (common to dementia sufferers). Your horrendously bad prediction of “no invasion of Ukraine” happened mid-February, not “New Years”. That would make it roughly 21 days ago. Damn, Germany should just tie a gas pipeline up to your mouth if they need more natural gas to burn. Problem solved.

    4. Ivan

      It will take Russia and China about a month or two to figure out a workaround. Russia will need to sell to China at $20-40 below world market prices. Then China’s current suppliers will sell to the rest of the world instead. The world as a whole will see some price increase, and Russia will see a loss of revenue. Biden has organized a release from the reserves to allow the process to play out without too much increase in prices. Stabilizing at $80-100 would be great for alternative energy and electric cars.

  26. Steven Kopits

    More on recessions, depressions and suppressions.

    Bill McBride has the latest employment to population graph out this morning. I have labelled this and put it on my blog.

    https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwES-LiOpaD8X2uygOUFsHKqhc0UtU82ZqcSXPL3tFjcY2xZKGIjr2td7-9x4vgn4dlQmT5v6IQw2hIXmbkoq-Ufow9dNT87c_cIJZjBuTgVG5yFqa0hkVaxrKoE2cx3hsQq1aLs1wZFDkx0AJNYNV0lg4fqLiHvFTg5TYeITOjHJtD2l1tg=s1064

    You can very clearly distinguish — or at least I can — among recessions, depressions and suppressions. Visually entirely apparent on Bill’s graph.

    https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2022/2/27/recessions-depressions-and-recessions

    If you’d like to republish it, Menzie, I am perfectly happy with that. Happy to debate it.

    1. pgl

      When has Bill McBride ever endorsed your incessant use of a very stupid term – suppressions. I read his post and it was excellent. How dare insult Bill by suggesting he agrees with your nonsense even remotely?

      “If you’d like to republish it, Menzie, I am perfectly happy with that. Happy to debate it.”

      Self promotion again? You are a jerk,

    2. pgl

      “A recession is an income statement event typically caused by a lag in investment cycles (so a kind of real business cycle theory).”

      Later you call a depression a balance sheet event.

      EVERYONE – do not read this post as it will lower anyone’s IQ.

      Stevie – we have tried to tell you this before but your knowledge of macroeconomics is less than zero. I started to read more but my side started hurting laughing at your absurd babbling.

    3. pgl

      A real business cycle reading this would realize that Stevie has no clue what their theory even is. A Keynesian reading this babble would suggest Keynes is rolling in his grave over such utter nonsense.

      Now a CPA might not get macroeconomics but he would realize that the person who wrote this garbage does not even know what an income statement is. Or a balance sheet for that matter.

      And the suppression stuff was really off the wall.

      And we come to the policy implications?

      “So, from my perspective, recessions, depressions and suppressions are different things and require different policy approaches. For that reason, they should have designations that clearly distinguish one from the other.”

      Something tells me you have not clue what policy even is. I do declare – this rant is the absolutely dumbest thing I have ever read.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        pgl,

        Having just sided with Steven on oil prices, let me note that I agree with you on this matter of “suppression.” Steven has made this up, and I do not see it or accept it as a meaningful category of business cycle or macroeconomic event. I supposed I can think of something like this in theory, but I do not think it is something we have seen and certainly not recently or in McBride’s series. He is just way off the deep end with this one.

  31. pgl

    So a new joke is running around that goes like this:

    “What is the difference between a dollar and a ruble? … “A Dollar”.

    I presume the technically correct answer is 99 cents but that does not translate well.

  32. pgl

    https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E211US1494G0&p=ukraine%20toys%20bomb

    Some of Putin’s forces are nothing more than the lowest of all terrorists. Using women and children as human shields. Using toys such as Teddy bears to hide one’s weapon until it is time to use the weapon to kill innocent children. This has gone beyond an invasion and has turned into vile war crimes.

    As much I have suggested we avoid turning this into World War III, Putin has already done as such. He must be stopped.

  33. Macroduck

    Jobs data are getting short shrift in financial markets today. The prospect of a weekend in war time is driving a flight to safety. Equities and yields down. Oil up (oil is now a safety play). Year-end Fed funds ever slightly more overhead than yesterday.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Jared Bernstein was on PBS NewsHour tonight, moderately tooting the White House horn on the jobs numbers, but also recognizing the inflation issue. Looked good in what I thought was a leather jacket.

  34. Bruce Hall

    Interestingly, the area that could have a major impact of Russian GDP has been specifically excluded from sanctions. To wit:

    As fighting rages across Ukraine, the energy sector is emerging as a target – just not by Western sanctions.

    The world has been shaken by news of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear plant, while the Ukrainian defenders and inhabitants of Mariapul are struggling in the dark after power supplies to the besieged city were cut.

    But while Russia targets output as it begins siege warfare, and Ukrainian citizens suffer increasing levels of violence and hardship, Western moves to help the embattled nation resist its invaders have a massive blind spot: Russian energy products that make up a whopping 60% of national exports.

    Moreover, the two key Russian banks that handle the bulk of these exports have escaped the sanctions regimen that has ejected other Russian financial institutions from the global SWIFT transactions system.

    These studious moves by Western nations not to use the most effective tool at their disposal are grounded in hard economic realities.

    While the EU’s leading economies are heavily dependent on Russian gas, the US fears pushing up pump prices and does not want to put its European allies under undue pressure.

    And both Brussels and Washington likely fear the impact on a shaky global economy of blocking the world’s third-largest supplier from energy markets.

    This all means that despite the unprecedented breadth of Western sanctions on Russia, Moscow’s key financial pressure point remains untouched.

    Sanctions blindspot

    To be sure, the sanctions regimen being implemented on Russia – from industry to media, from finance to sports – is sweeping and impactful. Global ratings agencies have just downgraded Russia’s sovereign debt to junk status, raising the possibility of a debt default.

    But Moscow’s biggest insulation against that scenario are sustained energy exports, including to Western markets including the US.

    “Russia was the world’s third-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids (after the United States and Saudi Arabia) in 2020 … Russia was the second-largest producer of dry natural gas in 2020 (second to the United States),” notes the US Energy Information Administration, or EIA.

    The world’s largest physical country is home to some 6% of global oil reserves and 20% of natural gas. National energy giant Gazprom, the world’s leading natural gas supplier, employs about 400,000 people.

    Russia’s exports in 2021 totaled $493.3 billion. Of these, 59.3% were energy, according to the website Trading Economics.

    Dependence on this vast resource has deeply compromised some of the West’s leading economies as they confront Russia.

    “Europe is Russia’s main market for its oil and natural gas exports, and by extension, Europe is its main source for revenues,” writes the EIA. “Russia is a major source of oil and natural gas for Europe.”

    Germany is the leading customer for Russian gas, followed by Italy and France.

    Notably, the key Russian banks handling energy payments are Gazprom Bank and Russian Sherbank. Despite widespread hoopla that surrounded the removal of other Russian financial firms from the global SWIFT transaction system, the two key banks retain their SWIFT access.

    This does not sit well with Kiev.

    Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on overseas governments to impose a “full embargo” on Russian oil and gas. But despite the earlier shutdown of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Baltic pipeline, that has not happened.

    Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, was asked directly by TV reporters on Friday if the West would sanction Russia’s energy exports.

    Borrell, entering a foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels, would say only that “everything is on the table.”

    The West’s dependency is known to the Kremlin, said a Ukrainian expert.

    “In my experience dealing with [Putin’s] team and him personally, one of the cornerstones … is that the energy supply is so important to the West … that no matter what [Russians] do, they’ll always be forgiven, that Western countries will crawl back on their knees asking for their oil and gas,” Andriy Kobolyev, the former head of Ukraine’s state-owned natural gas company Naftogaz told media outlet Politico this week.

    Kobylyev has been in the United States lobbying for sanctions on Russian energy exports.

    Continues here: https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/the-gaping-hole-in-western-sanctions-on-russia/

    1. Pgl

      Russia is having trouble selling its oil already and Congress is about to impose those sanctions Bruciie the court jester has told Putin would never happen..We will all laugh when an Putin pulls Brucie boy’s chain

      1. Bruce Hall

        pgloser,

        I see you lost a pile of money day trading yesterday so I’m excusing your erratic and irrelevant responses today. I would, however, support a banning of Russian oil to the U.S. and the EU/NATO countries which I’m sure you do, too. So, once again …we are in complete agreement.
        1) Sending missiles and aircraft to Ukraine in December (okay, the U.S. is a bit late)
        2) Cutting all economic ties to Russia until Russian troops are withdrawn and reparations are paid to Ukraine.
        3) Calling anyone who disagrees with us a “traitor” and having them hauled off to prison.

        As Joe said, “We have to expect a bit of a rough patch ahead.”

        Fortunately, I’ve been in a strong cash position for awhile and don’t drive very much, so have at it. I’m guessing you are that way, too.

        1. Pgl

          1 and 2 have been done. Or is your boss Putin still lying to his little poodle. 3 is acting like Putin. America is better than that. And FYI little liar. We agree nothing as I am far from being a lying sell out. That is you to a tee. So shut up pathetic little poodle

      2. Bruce Hall

        pgloser,

        Those traitors at CNN are saying that Biden won’t give Ukraine support because it is expendable. They should be listening to you and me. We’ve got it right. Send weapons to Ukraine starting in December and cut off all economic ties to Putinville.
        https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/opinions/realpolitik-putin-ukraine-mabry/index.html

        CNN says, “Morally, of course. Watching the Russian war of choice imposed on Ukraine is difficult. Watching children die just because Putin decided to invade is terrible.” But, hey, if we don’t have to fight, all is well.

        A bunch of hypocritical pacifists.

        1. Pgl

          Of course you lied about what this CNN discussion said. Then again you lie about everything because like your master Putin you have no soul.. He is a monster but his little poodle is nothing more than a little nobody.. So this disgusting garbage of yours is you have ever had.. we agree on nothing you total piece of slIme

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Bruce,

          We get it that Trampscheiss like you are in difficult situations because you have been supporting Putin almost whole hog so now you need to look like you are not while you kind of continue to do so. This gets you becoming essentially incoherent, which you are here. I mean, just what is supposed to be the point of this link? It certainluy is not what you claim it is, that the US or for that matter NATO members more generally are somehow “hypocritical pacifists” because they are not sending troops into Ukraine to defend it.

          The article fusses at one point about Biden removing the small number of military advisers the US had in Uktaine prior to the invasion. As it was at that point, that followed a phone calle between Biden and Putin, I think the last one they have had, which followed a period in which Putin was making lots of noise in the Russian media, as I reported here, about how US troops were in Ukraine and were threatening to invade Russia, thus providing Putin with a pretext for all his military buildup. When Biden withdrew those advisers this was followed by Putin making all kinds of peaceful noises for several days, which I also reported here, ludly declaring the Russian troops in Belarus would be withdrawn from Belarus when their exercises were done, and so on. Looked like a pretty reasonable thing for Biden to do, remove a major excuse for Putin to invade, especially given that such a small force would not be able to do much. As it is, of course, Biden in the end was right that Putin was simply set on invading in any case, but he did not have the presence of US troops as an excuse for it, and was left with his pathetically ridiculous claims that the Ukrainin government is a bunch of drug addict Nazis committing genocide in the Donbas republics.

          Now it has been made very clear that if Putin messes with any NATO members there will be firm and strong military action. That is indeed what Section 5 of the NATO agreement is about, and indeed, for better or worse, Ukraine is not in NATO. So there is no pacifism invoved here at all. US is ready to go to war all out if a NATO member is invaded. But, indeed, that does not apply to Ukraine, unfortunately for it.

          In any case, they hypocrite here is you, Bruce Hall. This is just worthless bs, pretty much like nearly all you posts on this topic here. You really have not been able to find any sort of reasonable line on all this since your praise of Putin has fallen so hard on its face.

    2. pgl

      Brucie boy has this habit of citing people who he does not know. Who is Andrew Salmon? Bruce has no clue but permit me:

      https://www.koreaandtheworld.org/andrew-salmon/

      A journalist who lives in Korea and has written on the Korean War is Bruce’s expert on Ukraine? I wonder if Bruce even has a clue where on a map Ukraine exists. His hero Donald Trump did not know.

    2. Pgl

      That potash production chart by nation is something JohnH figured out 2 weeks ago. Of course he is twice as bright as Brucie boy. JohnH IQ is in the teens after all

  36. Pgl

    Bruce Hall must have been cut off from boss man Putin as he is desperate to find Anyone to agree with his dishonest disgusting garbage. He even thinks I want to be his buddy. Sorry Bruce but I gag every time I read your sick comments. But I hear the weather is nice at Maro Lago. Trump needs someone to wipe his butt and he has specifically asked for you. GO FOR IT

    1. Bruce Hall

      Oh, so you are saying that Putin wanted the U.S. to send missiles and aircraft to Ukraine, so you and Biden were opposed. You’re saying that Putin wanted the U.S. and Europe to cut all economic ties with Russia, so you and Biden were opposed. Come on, man! You really believe in half-assed measures because Biden is your man and that’s his “strategy”?

      Okay, so I guess that makes you a real strategist in your own mind, eh? I bet Putin is quaking in his boots knowing that he is up against your steel-trap mind… you and Blinken and Biden… the team of Winkin’, Blinkin’ and Noddin’ Off. “The U.S. and NATO are standing behind you… wayyyy behind you.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-visit-to-ukraine-border-blinken-pledges-increased-support-but-not-fighter-jets/ar-AAUFmA3

      Any particular reason you want the situation in Ukraine to get worse and drag out? Any particular reason you object to providing sufficient and effective weaponry to Ukraine? Maybe you’ve got some money on oil hitting $150/barrel? Hoping wheat and fertilizer prices set records? Is that your skin in the game? Seems as sociopathic as Putin. Other than you enriching yourself, what’s the upside for Ukraine and the West?

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Bruce Hall
        You seem to have some kind of amnesia on the fact donald trump held up weapons going to Ukraine so he could extort false political information:
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-ordered-hold-on-military-aid-days-before-calling-ukrainian-president-officials-say/2019/09/23/df93a6ca-de38-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html

        Bruce, everyone here knows you’re kinda dumb, so I’m gonna give you a link that explains how a person of average intelligence can “read between the lines” of donald trump’s extortion attempt on Zelensky. It is explained in such a fashion that even an idiot like you can follow along:
        https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/25/donald-trump-ukraine-call-analysis-000039

        1. Bruce Hall

          Moses, sorry but in this instance, you seem to have forgotten a few things.

          • https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pompeo-trump-admin-gave-ukrainians-weapons-training-to-defend-themselves/vi-AAUJCot
          • https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898 (note the date)

          I realize that it goes against the narrative that Trump did everything he could to aid Putin, but Trump was sending in arms before this latest round of hostilities. You may have confused Obama with Trump.
          • https://nypost.com/2019/10/09/sorry-joe-team-obama-refused-to-arm-ukraine-at-all/

          1. Pgl

            It was Congress not Mike Jabba the Hut Pompeo that approved qthis Oqbama Era proposal. I would say you are lying like you always do but given your hyper stupidity maybe you believe yqor lies

          2. Moses Herzog

            It was the orange abomination who stalled the weapons for 2 months with the aim of extorting lies about Joe Biden, no one else. You can’t cherry pick headlines in an attempt to change reality. No one else was attempting to extort a foreign government by threat of weakening that foreign government’s security (an ally of the USA in case you were too dumb to notice). donald trump wouldn’t do that to Israel, but thought it was lots of fun to put Europe at risk by threatening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Let me be clear for the learning disabled of Michigan~~NO OTHER PRESIDENT than the orange abomination, made an OPEN extortion attempt on a European ally. ONLY your personal hero in life, donald trump, attempted open extortion of a US ally.
            https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/25/donald-trump-ukraine-call-analysis-000039

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Bruce,

        Uh oh. There you go behaving like Moses Herzog after he has been hitting the bottle too hard, emboldening words like this will really impress people.

        It impresses people that you have lost the argument and are desperate. Yeah, oil might go to $159. Things can get a lot worse. But your solution is for the Ukrainians just to surrender to Putin like you have been advocating all along, although sort of covering that up with bs at times. Sorry, Putin bog, no dice.

        And I doubt pgl is making money off this, as you accuse, although maybe he is. But this is yet more desperation on your part: not only to embolden letters but to make false accusations that opponents are out to make money out of their arguments, which must mean their arguments are wrong. No, sorry, buster, it is yours that are wrong.

        1. Bruce Hall

          Barkley,

          I bold certain phrases or letters because pgl is notorious for picking my words out of context. I wanted there to be no misunderstanding.

          But your solution is for the Ukrainians just to surrender to Putin like you have been advocating all along…. Now you are putting words in my mouth that I never wrote or spoke. Come on, man! From the start I said economic sanctions were insufficient and ineffective once aggression began. So you must be confusing me with Joe Biden or perhaps your own fixation on addressing the situation through economic sanctions.

          I admit your eclectic knowledge of economics is better than mine during “normal” times, but you seem to lack some real common sense now.

          1. Pgl

            Picking your words out of context? You are a weasel. YOU lie a lot and I call out your lies. Poor little Brucie needs him mommy because Melanie’s hold him accountable

        2. Moses Herzog

          @ Barkley Junior
          You say you enjoy my boldface typing?? Here, I have some more for you from last month.

          Barkley Rosser said: “Do keep in mind I am the one here with access to Russian media. That has now been blaring for several days that the troops will go home after the exercises are done, and exercises are exactly what they are doing now. This has more recently been reinforced by statements from Putin in press conferences, such as the one just held after the visit of German Chancellor Scholze.

          There is not going to be an invasion, even if some of the details of what Zelensky and Ukraine may agree to are not fully settled, and Victoria Nuland has been shooting her mouth off too much, somebody I wish was not part of this administration.”
          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/risk-and-uncertainty-before-the-open#comment-268219

          Was there a misquote there?? I copy/pasted YOUR words before I emboldened them. Is that how you wanted me to do that??
          Barkley Rosser also wants everyone to know that Putin was “very convincing” about Russian troops “just doing exercises” in Belarus near the northern border of Ukraine.

          OK. let me know if I quoted that wrong Barkster, ok?? I can hunt that one up also. BOLD print just as you request.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            MOses,

            I accurately reported what the Russian media was indeed blaring. Putin lied to his own people.

            It remains the case that while it may make you feel like a real man to go around emboldening letters here, it just makes you look like a pathetic idiot. Besides Bruce Hall here momentarily, just how many other people here do this? And it is certainly the case that you do this far far more than anybody else here does. And you think it impresses people? Go ahead and ask. Anybody here think Moses convinces anybody of what he is saying when he “highlights” words with his emoldening? Come on, anybody, please speak up.

            No, Moses, nobody will. You are all alone with this obsession of yours.

          2. Moses Herzog

            No, I mostly embolden the words so nobody here can miss your words of genius, such as when you said, 3 weeks ago, mid-February “there will be no invasion of Ukraine”. Can you imagine how those who are not “experts” on Russia like Barkley Rosser would get lost without your amazing clarity on the facts on the ground?? Your thoughts about Kharkiv were also very insightful to the uninitiated to Russia. Nobody knew before you said it that being struck with missiles in residential areas would bore the “ethnic Russians” of Kharkiv to the point of snoring. We only got that deep insight from you Barkley. Very few Americans knew that Russian soldiers were lined up all along the northern border of Ukraine “just doing exercises”. I think only one other person could have enlightened us on Russia’s aggression on Ukraine as superbly as you have Barkley~~Dmitry Peskov. Thanks Professor Rosser!!!!! Woohoo!!!! You are the #1 “expert” on Russia!!!! Hooray Professor Rosser!!!!

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            I have admitted to making some incorrect forecasts, indeed the same one that Ukrainian President Zelensky made. Why are you not getting on his case for doing so.? Tsk tsk, maybe he is “demented.”

            This is probably a waste of time, but somehow while I admit making some inaccurate forecasts, it remains the case that you have yet to find me at fault regarding any current or past factual matter in all this. OTOH, you have made numerous factually incorrect statements, some of them hilarious, even as some of them were accompanied by all sorts of bold face claims that you were showing me up or something. One of the more amusing was when you informed us, while including a map even, that Putin had sent troops to “south east Romania.” But somehow you never admit that you have been found to be handing out phony baloney, even as you keep repeating all sorts of accusations and claims about me. How many times now have you tried to claim that Echo of Moscow was not independent because it had partial state ownership, with you not even getting it right that the state ownership was only partial and not total?

            And, yeah, I do know more than anybody else posting here about the geography, history, languages, cultures, politics, and economics of Russia and Ukraine, although maybe there is somebody who does. If so, they have not exhibited enough such knowledge to suggest that they do. I think Steven Kopits knows more about all that for Hungary than I do, given his long personal experience there. But even Steven I think recognizes I know more about that stuff for Russia and Ukraine than he does, and there is not anybody else posting here with any special personal expertise on this I am aware of, sure as heck not you with your multiple embarrassing errors that you even repeat.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Actually, Bruce, that you somehow think others are taking their positions in support of US supplying arms to Ukraine is because they are personally out to make money on their positions makes me wonder if in fact you are taking your position out of some personal monetary interest, especially given how immoral your position is. Did you plunge a lot of your money into the Russian stock market just before Feb. 24 and are now in deep doo doo financially? Oh, I hope so.

        1. Bruce Hall

          Barkley, no, just the opposite. I think pgl’s continued distortion of my arguments that, when sanctions were first proposed as the means to address the situation, sending weaponry to Ukraine was vital because sanctions were simply not going to work to mean that I supported Putin is absurd and disingenuous. The fact that you have picked up on that simply shows you read what you want to read and not what is written.

          So, yes, I’ve been tweaking pgl because if he is against the concept of arming Ukraine, he seems to be hoping the situation will deteriorate so that he can make money off the tragedy through the commodities market.

          Bolding for your benefit.

          2. Pgl

            I support giving Ukraine arms. I have done so from the beginning. You have been lying froM the start so why. Stop now

          3. Moses Herzog

            Your personal archetype for “strong leadership”, the orange abomination, spent 4 years trying to bully and destroy NATO (arguably more than 4 years with his “compensating for my small hands and small D—” blustering). 4+ years this ugly small-dick orange bag of false macho tried to destroy NATO. The same NATO now feeding, weaponizing, and providing a safe place for Ukrainians. While over 1 year after LOSING the vote, you defend the orange abomination who was absentee January 6th, laughing at fools like you who demeaned themselves in their worship to him.

            This is the best you can do as a human being Bruce?? Why don’t you just go down to Florida, apply for toilet cleaner at Mar-a-Lago and save us wasting time interacting with you.

        2. Pgl

          Thank you for dressing this lying little troll. I have had it as it is clear that Bruce Hall cares even less about Ukraine than lying Donald Trump

      4. Pgl

        What incoherent BS. Barkley just nailed you. I’m done with your dishonest stupidity as it is clear you think the plight of Ukraine is just fodder for your sick sense of humor

  37. rjs

    copying a tweet:

    Javier Blas @JavierBlas (Bloomberg)
    ·
    UPDATED: European natural gas prices zoom to a fresh all-time high, rising >75% today. Benchmark TTF is trading above €345 per MWh.

    ** That’s equal to more than $100 per million Btu, or more than to $600 a barrel of oil equivalent ** (I promise you there are not typos there).

    for perspective, US natural gas prices are around $5 per million BTU

    in related news, “Cheniere CEO said that they are sold out of LNG until 2040” Cheniere is our largest exporter, accounts for at least a third

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