Wisconsin Employment and GDP: Actual and Outlook

The Wisconsin Department of Revenue released its February Economic Outlook on Monday.

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from January release (black), forecast from February 2022 Economic Outlook (released in March) (gray +), private nonfarm payroll (teal), forecast (teal +), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, Wisconsin Department of Revenue, and author’s calculations.

 

Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (black), forecast from February 2022 Economic Outlook, interpolated (released in March) (purple), forecast using first differences of US log GDP (teal), all in bn CH.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA, Wisconsin Department of Revenue, and author’s calculations.

30 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment and GDP: Actual and Outlook”

  1. macroduck

    Off topic AGAIN! Sorry.

    There Fed has been criticized for assuming in the earlier period of Covid-induced inflation that the inflation increase was transitory. Recent analysis by the NY Fed finds that policy makers were right – early in the pandemic inflation, transitory factors were mostly to blame:

    “Transitory shocks dominated the movements of inflation early in the pandemic, as it first plunged in the second quarter of 2020 and subsequently rebounded in the third quarter as the economy shut down and the re-opened. Persistent cost-push shocks were virtually absent in that first phase of the pandemic economy.”

    https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/03/drivers-of-inflation-the-new-york-fed-dsge-models-perspective/

    Persistent inflationary shocks developed later. When the cause of inflation changed, Fed policy changed with it. It is interesting, to me at least, that policy makers apparently did not have this research to support their decision, but behaved as if they did. Experience helps, I guess.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I am very sympathetic to the transitory inflation argument. As I was one of the loudest screamers (on this blog anyway) that it was transitory inflation. I ended up being horrendously wrong, my belief is because of the supply chain problems. The funny thing is, this one one of the few things Barkley Junior could have legitimately attacked me on and hasn’t.

      Having said all that, I have strong mixed feelings on the NYFRB research or any of the Fed’s thoughts on this topic. It strikes me as something similar to a typical police internal investigations report. “All of the police dept officers on paid leave after the 3 unarmed Black charity volunteers at Shriners Hospital, all 3 on scholarship to Princeton U were shot in the back and killed, were eventually cleared of any and all malfeasance and liability. All 3 officers had mistaken their dept issued pistol for a plastic super-soaker watergun ” OK, yeah, guess that one is settled now.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Moses,

        Most of us here thought it would be transitory. You may have yelled louder than many about it, but you there was nothing special about your position to call for you to be singled out on this matter. You are the one engaging in a personal vendetta, seeking out possible things to denounce me over, with these often turning out not to be as bad or even wrong at all, making you look foolish and obsessed.

    2. pgl

      Actually very on topic and thankfully a real analysis to counter that persistent and annoying disinformation ala Putin’s poodle Bruce Hall.

    3. T. Shaw

      They seem to be genuinely bewildered by everything blowing up in their faces.

      Bewildered but not chastened.

        1. T. Shaw

          Non Sequitur.

          Thank God for small mercies. We had three salad years – January 2017 through January 2020.

          Before the February 2020 CCP virus attack, nothing like this lengthy litany of unnecessary catastrophes slammed America under President Donald John Trump.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            T. Shaw,

            Oh, I had not noticed this flagrantly and partisanly misleading nonsense out of you. Do please recognize that those three “salad years” you identify from the Trump years did not do any better than the years of the Obama administration once the Great Recession ended early in rhe Obama administration.

            This point has been made many times here. Why did you think people here would be so stupid or ignorant as to buy into this bilge? Or is it that you are yourself the stupid and ignorant one here?

  2. rsm

    What if lots more realized the scam that is capitalism and resigned? Shouldn’t we start giving people daschas so Menzie can grow his own food, when people realize working so hard to stock his larder while he commits chart crime for a living is just stupid?

  3. ltr

    Shouldn’t we start giving people dachas * so —— can grow his own food, when people realize working so hard to stock his larder while he commits chart crime for a living is just stupid?

    * Properly spelled

    [ What a saddening remark, only showing a need for counseling, since the personal insult is so needless though carefully calculated. ]

  4. Moses Herzog

    Got two pretty good quality fish sandwiches today for $9.31. Soda pop at home for a few pennies. Off-brand Mountain Dew with some lime juice sloshed in. Not too bad. Gasoline outrageous but still have half a tank left, may fill up tonight cuz it just doesn’t look like the price will get better soon. Was reading some countries, like Germany are going to eliminate their surtax on Gasoline, and some USA states talking about “gasoline tax holidays” which would maybe be like 1–4 days or something. My own anecdotal evidence already sees less cars on the road, but I would argue still too many, and time will tell how much this actually effects recreational driving. People (at least in my state) always surprise me on that score. But then if they’ll purchase 15 mpg SUVs I guess I shouldn’t be that surprised.

  5. Moses Herzog

    I just had one of my random weirdo thoughts while reading some stuff. Menzie used to sardonically joke that donald trump provided him with lots of “event studies”. I think this War by Putin might be an “event study” Menzie could be happier without.

  6. pgl

    https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/33490935/naomi-osaka-addresses-crowd-fan-heckles-loss-indian-wells

    Naomi Osaka had to endure some racist heckling and utter indifference from the officials at the Indian Wells tennis tourney. This harkens years back to when Venus and Serena Williams were treated badly. One might wonder why there would be such racism in tennis being played in California but note Indian Wells is a small town way out in Riverside County where most of the people there were probably wearing MAGA hats. Maybe tennis should never have another tourney in this hick gown.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Forget about President Obama. We have to remember the men doing the most courageous and compassionate work right now.
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/europe/patriarch-kirill-putin-spiritual-battle-intl-cmd/index.html

      ” Pope Francis has so far refrained from calling on Kirill to condemn the war, and has not publicly condemned Putin or Russia by name, despite his fervent appeals for an end to the war.”

      Remember folks, when a person “refrains from” doing something, they are showing great prudence and “discretion”, not showing moral cowardice er something. “Cuz, Pope Francis, is, like….a genius, and stuff.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Bruce,

        But then it turns out that Biden got it right when he repeatedly forecast that Putin would engage in a full blown invasion of Ukraine. He insisted on this even as the now glorified Zelenskyy claimed Biden was wrong. I even went along with believing Zelenskyy over Biden, having remembered that US intel had in the past made incorrect claims about nations we did not like, notably regarding WMD in Iraq. But in this case, US intel was right, and Biden was very wise to publicize these accurate intel reports.

        I am waiting for any GOPs to recognize this rather than repeating these increasingly silly claims that somehow Biden is out of it and not able to handle this situation at all. He is doing so far better than the Putin lacky Trump would. As it was, it was disgraceful that when Zelenskyy thanked Biden for his support during his speech to the US Congress, the GOPs would not applaud. They just cannot admit he might be doing something right on all this.

  9. Moses Herzog

    Slightly sad to hear of the death of William Hurt. I was a great fan of his professional work. Remember going to see his movies at the theater in the ’80s and into the ’90s. I was really quite emotionally moved by the film “Children of a Lesser God” when I saw it. It’s too bad and very unfortunate he couldn’t manage to be a better human being in his personal life. I hope he got the chance to apologize in private to the women he hurt before he passed away.

  10. Moses Herzog

    Does anyone know why the number of Covid-19 cases has been on a slight uptick in Europe and Asia lately while the U.S. is still steadily down?? I know about the deal in Shanghai, but…… it seems kind of puzzling to me.

  12. Moses Herzog

    I try to filter myself on making pleas for specific topics on posts, as I would probably be making 3 post suggestions per day if I commented every one that popped into my head, but I am so angry about Sarah Raskin being denied a position that was rightfully hers at the Fed. There is no Earthly reason for her to be denied. I hope once Professor Hamilton has completed his thoughts on oil and the general macro economy Menzie will do a post on this disgrace. Where are the Women’s groups on this one?? Where is the outrage from feminists?!?!?!?! They are only accoutred for Hollywood issues??

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Well, it seems that it was Joe Manchin who did Raskin in in the end, and he clearly was driven by her focus on climate change, which Joe Coal does not like. Not clear Biden can do much about Manchin, given that Manchin’s views on this are popular in his state of West Virginia, not a state Biden did well in and not because he is whatever bad name you have restrained yourself from calling him, Moses.

        BTW, this does not mean that it was fair or reasonable that Raskin has been blocked. But then she is hardly the first highly qualified person to be blocked unreasonably from getting on the Fed board, and they were not all women or minorities. e.g. see Peter Diamond.

  13. Moses Herzog

    Since I’ve managed to get my mud-stained boots all over this thread I might as well go for Olympic gold now. I wonder if Powell shows all of his cards at the March meeting or the May meeting?? Old Fed “rules of the road” would indicate the May meeting, new Fed rules of the road would indicate showing his cards at the March meeting. Normally I’m for transparency, but I think if Powell is smart he waits until May to show all of his poker cards, because leaving some mystery on what the Fed will do gives him “wiggle room”, which is probably pretty desirable in this context of war and criss-crossing economic numbers.

  14. Moses Herzog

    Shalanda Young finally confirmed as head of OMB. After all the feathers flying that confirmation sure got some big headlines didn’t it?? /sarc

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