Seminars on Economic Forecasting

Econbrowser has hosted lots debates about how to forecast. For people who want to learn how forecasting is done, here are two series I’ve been made aware of.

The IIF’s next session is with Mike McCracken (St. Louis Fed) on “On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indexes for growth” (May 10). The HO Steckler Program’s two  speakers are Juhee Bae (University Of Glasgow)  “Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available” (May 5), and Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU) “Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” (May 12).

I’m sure I’m missing many others, so suggestions welcome.

And since I’m doing a public service ad, here’s the link to economics data sources, so even if you don’t want to do econometrics, at least you can look up the data yourself to see if your preconceived notions are validated or not (i.e., don’t believe your typical ZeroHedge post..).

 

8 thoughts on “Seminars on Economic Forecasting”

  1. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-04/Chinese-consumers-more-optimistic-about-future-EY-report-19L7HSdHwY0/index.html

    May 4, 2022

    Chinese consumers more optimistic about future: EY report

    Chinese consumers are relatively more optimistic about the future in sharp contrast to the declining global consumer confidence, said a report published by global consulting firm Ernst & Young (EY).

    Approximately 60 percent of Chinese respondents believed their personal finances would improve in the coming year, higher than the global average of 48 percent, according to the latest EY Future Consumer Index report which tracks changing consumer sentiment and behaviors across global markets with 18,000 consumers worldwide surveyed.

    Meanwhile, 43 percent of Chinese consumers said their current financial situation has improved due to appropriate reductions in consumption, which is 9 percentage points higher than the global average, data from the report showed.

    As climate change and sustainable development continue to attract global attention, more consumers said they are aware of the impact of their consumption behavior on the environment and include it as one of the main factors in their consumption considerations, said the report.

    Data showed that 32 percent of the Chinese respondents said they will prioritize sustainability and the environment in buying products, higher than the global average of 26 percent….

  2. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-04/Chinese-mainland-records-362-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-19KJR2yJAWI/index.html

    May 4, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 362 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 362 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday with 353 linked to local transmissions and nine from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Wednesday.

    A total of 5,136 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Tuesday, and 128,319 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 218,198, with the death toll at 5,128.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-04/Chinese-mainland-records-362-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-19KJR2yJAWI/img/9fbeb38c33d4461c9ef46799483790a0/9fbeb38c33d4461c9ef46799483790a0.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-04/Chinese-mainland-records-362-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-19KJR2yJAWI/img/4cdae6acba964866a1038b0e93e4475c/4cdae6acba964866a1038b0e93e4475c.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-04/Chinese-mainland-records-362-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-19KJR2yJAWI/img/e2f17c4e5dec4b6f82e7c93ba0b8ee39/e2f17c4e5dec4b6f82e7c93ba0b8ee39.jpeg

    1. macroduck

      Here are two Fed financial stress indices, side by side:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=OUvb

      Kansas tends to turn posiive more often than Chicago, registering stressed conditions prior to the 2001 recession, during the early teens Euro-zone mess, the mid-teens junk bond slide and the 2018-9 scare that led the Fed to ease. The Kansas index is still not above zero, but it is monthly while the Chicago index is weekly. When the next KC reading is released, it’s likely to turn positive.

  4. macroduck

    The Fed has done the expected, hiking rates by 50 basis points. The goal is to tame inflation, and regain credibility, without inducing recession.

    The Fed has twice, in the disinflationary period, hiked rates without a recession following close behind, once in 1983-4, once in 1994. The 2016-8 rate hikes resulted in yield curve inversions and signs of financial stress, and were followed by recession, but that’s a very special case. In none of those cases was inflation rising.

    In the 80s episode, the funds rate rose something like 265 basis points. In the 90s, a similar amount (reading from a chart here). In 2016-8, hikes amounted to 425 basis points. Smaller series of rate hikes have been followed by recession.

    Fed funds futures currently price in 325 basis points of rate hikes by July of next year. Inflation has been rising. Assuming money markets don’t price out some rate hikes in the next few months, those two facts cast doubt on the Fed’s ability to complete this series of hikes without recession following.

  5. Moses Herzog

    It’s kind of you to post this Menzie. Wish more blogs were as public-spirited as you and Professor Hamilton are.

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