With the release of employment last Friday, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Gee – I see no indicator in your graph of Princeton Steve’s predicted recession. Of course Stevie will school us that ONLY OIL MATTERS and Dr. Chinn left out oil prices. Yes expect more dumb tirades from the world’s worst oil consultant!
Not recession~~ “suppression!!!!~~ come on, a great imagination should worth, uh, uhm, something. Remember when Deckard dreamed of the unicorn in Blade Runner?? Origami was never the same.
It will come, it will come. May be a decade or two or three – but it will come. And then just like a broken clock those predicting it will be proven right. Personally I prefer to predict “no recession” – that way I am right most of the time.
Don’t forget, Larry Summers is, like, a genius, and stuff, because he told us all that fiscal stimulus creates global supply chain problems. He’s rounding the bases on his international “I’m Always Right” victory tour. As I said before, don’t send your grandkids any birthday checks or allowances for good grades and mowing the lawn. Don’t even send the grandkids money for their school lunch. That action will cause all of your Amazon Prime shipments to come in months late, your grocer’s produce shelves will be empty, and Summers’ “I Am Always Right” theory addressing pandemic stimulus inflation will be proven correct once again.
I don’t care if the National Weather Service meteorologists told us 85% chance of rain on Thursday, if Larry Summers says it was because of a Cherokee rain dance he did Wednesday night, then damn it, that’s the reason it rained. ‘Cuz Larry is, like, a genius, and stuff.
Well, Menzie is not quite as morbid in his taste for humor as I am, but he still might get half a chuckle out of this one. Is pgl ready for some political trivia?? Guess who I am watching right now, on LIVE statewide TV running for James Inhofe’s soon vacated Senate seat??
…….. Scott Pruitt. Yup, that Scott Pruitt.
Flow of Funds data. I could give the Fed Res page, but I think this is easier to digest. Actually the page is a link in the story if readers prefer that outlay.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-household-net-worth-declines-in-first-quarter-on-lower-stock-prices-11654793543
This to me is the type number that’s going to get Biden in trouble quicker than the inflation per se.