From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank today, the observation “…through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year. This clearly hasn’t happened yet.”
On the other hand, he warns don’t look for a slowdown in NFP growth to signal an imminent recession.
More on labor market-related recession indicators, here.
Gosh, Menzie, I am beginning to lose track of which period we are supposed to be deciding whether or not we are in a recession. Personally, having been diagnosed with Covid, I have an excuse for not knowing what is going on or what I am talking about.
Recession? Which or what recession? Is this 1937 perchance?
Has anyone watched the British film “Help” with Jodie Comer?? I found it to be deeply moving. The scenes where she is enlisting Tony to help her save Kenny really kinda gave me a lump in my throat (and I wasn’t drinking when I watched that).
Microfoundations. Model this….
My usual divining rod isn’t working, since there’s discussion that we aren’t in a recession, and for once, it’s actually true. I can easily see a recession coming in a year or so, as problems stemming from Ukraine and Russia’s games with natural gas cause serious problems in Europe. Even then, a recession in Europe may not cause a recession here.
There’s also the banking problems going on in China. I don’t know what effect that will ultimately have on the world economy. We live in interesting times. Even so, I’m fairly optimistic about the US economy.