From the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade volume through April 2022:
Figure 1: World trade volume, 2010=100 (blue), forecasted using ECM (blue square). NBER defined peak-to-trough US recession dates shaded gray. Source: Netherlands CPB, NBER, and author’s calculations.
World trade volume has been declining since December 2021, on a seasonally adjusted basis. My forecast, based on lagged (log) levels of world trade and container throughput index, and first difference of log container throughput, yields a slight decrease in trade in May (the May number will be released by CPB on Monday).
It is interesting to note that trade was rising before worries of Russian aggression heighted in November. Trade volumes have declined since the invasion. It is also of interest that trade volumes decreased long before the recession of 2020, and one can in fact date the local maximum to a few months after the first round of Section 301 tariffs went into effect (thanks, Trump!).