Industrial production and manufacturing production exceeded consensus (0.6% vs. 0.3%, 0.7% vs. 0.2%, respectively) yielding the following graph of key indicators.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2021M056=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (8/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
The six plotted series are those focused on by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, and IHS Markit’s monthly GDP (not currently on the list). Of the key six, nonfarm payroll employment (black) and personal income ex-transfers are given more weight.