Looking Back at Q2 – Imminent Upward Revisions?

IHS Markit moves 2022Q2 tracking from -0.3% to -0.2% SAAR today. Goldman Sachs moves from the advance official of -0.9% to -0.4% SAAR.

Figure 1: GDP advance Q2 (black), IHS Markit tracking 8/17 (green square), and Goldman Sachs tracking 8/17 (red triangle), all bn.Ch2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA, IHS Markit, Goldman Sachs.

These updated nowcasts highlight the fact that GDP estimates are revised, as noted here.

8 thoughts on “Looking Back at Q2 – Imminent Upward Revisions?

  1. rjs

    i agree with Goldman. i saw no revision greater than 4 basis points before today’s reports…but today:

    June’s seasonally adjusted retail sales were revised 0.3% higher, from the $680.6 billion reported last month to $682.6 billion, while May sales were revised 0.5% higher, from $673.9 billion to $677.1 billion…combined, the revisions to May and June indicate that the 2nd quarter’s adjusted sales were roughly $5.2 billion higher than was previously reported, which would add about $20.8 billion to the BEA’s annual rate calculation of 2nd quarter personal consumption expenditures before the inflation adjustment, which should be enough to boost 2nd quarter GDP by almost 0.30 percentage points when the 2nd estimate is published at the end of the month…

    on today’s business inventories:
    The Key source data and assumptions (xls) that accompanied the release of the advance estimate of 2nd quarter GDP indicates that the BEA had assumed that total seasonally adjusted June manufacturing and trade inventories (on a Census basis – line 140) would increase by $31.4 billion from the previously published May figures…since this report shows that total June inventories increased by $32.9 billion while May inventories were revised $4.7 billion higher at the same time, that means that the advance estimate of 2nd quarter GDP underestimated end of June inventories by $6.2 billion, and with May’s revision, underestimated 2nd quarter inventories by $10.9 billion……assuming there is no major change or imbalance relating to the inflation adjustment on those inventories, a revision to reflect these new figures would be enough to add about 0.24 percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP when the 2nd estimate is released at the end of August…

  2. pgl

    GDP estimates are revised. You know what else is being revised? Princeton’s hard reset or was that his previous victory lap? Yea – he never was “on the record” saying we were in a recession after all!

  3. Moses Herzog


    As I develop the awakening mind
    I praise the Buddhas as they shine
    I bow before you as I travel my path
    To join your ranks, I make my full-time task
    For the sake of all beings I seek
    The enlightened mind that I know I’ll reap
    Respect to Shantideva and all the others
    Who brought down the Dharma for the sisters and brothers
    I give thanks for this world as a place to learn
    And for this human body that I know I’ve earned
    And my deepest thanks to all sentient beings
    For without them, there would be no place to learn what I’m seeing
    There’s nothing here that’s not been said before
    But I put it down now so that I’ll be sure
    To solidify my own views
    And I’ll be glad if it helps anyone else out too

    If others disrespect me or give me flak
    I’ll stop and think before I react
    Knowing that they’re going through insecure stages
    I’ll take the opportunity to exercise patience
    I’ll see it as a chance to help the other person
    Nip it in the bud before it can worsen
    A chance for me to be strong and sure
    As I think on the Buddhas who have come before
    As I praise and respect the good they’ve done
    Knowing love can conquer hate in every situation
    We need other people in order to create
    The circumstances for the learning that we’re here to generate
    Situations that bring up our deepest fears
    So we can work to release them until they’re cleared
    Therefore, it only makes sense
    To thank our enemies despite their intent

    The Bodhisattva path is one of power and strength
    A strength from within to go the length
    Seeing others are as important as myself
    I strive for a happiness of mental wealth
    With the interconnectedness that we share as one
    Every action that we take affects everyone
    So in deciding for what a situation calls
    There is a path for the good for all
    I try to make my every action for that highest good
    With the altruistic wish to achieve Buddhahood
    So I pledge here before everyone who’s listening
    To try to make my every action for the good of all beings
    For the rest of my lifetimes and even beyond
    I vow to do my best, to do no harm
    And in times of doubt, I can think on the Dharma
    And the Enlightened Ones who’ve graduated Samsara
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  4. Moses Hersog

    My wife is dead…… “High five!!!!” She was boring……. She was weak on the farming plow…. she can have no “past” retardation

    1. Moses Herzog

      Everyone will perceive the above comment in the wrong context, that’s ok. It will give Barkley something to do today when his grandkids felt more bored than usual

  5. Jacob

    A side note. I made a small bet in a prediction market that we’d not see two quarters of negative growth in 2022, and lost that bet with the last release. The contract states that revisions don’t count, so the real bet is not on actual GDP but on the initial numbers published each quarter.

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