Nowcasts, August 1

From Atlanta Fed and IHS Markit:

Figure 1: Advance release GDP growth (thin black line), latest vintage (bold black line) , GDPNow (red) and IHS Markit (blue +), all in %, SAAR. Source: BEA, BEA via ALFRED, Atlanta Fed, IHS Markit. 

48 thoughts on “Nowcasts, August 1

      1. pgl

        I was referring to the bandwagon you are leading. I guess you are too stupid to get that. My apologies for smart people with actual abandoning your total BS.

        Reply
  1. Macroduck

    The focus on the accuracy of GDP and GDI measiures and on the definition of recession here is in part due to Trump trolls cheering for recession. They tell us that Biden will be blamed for a recession that probably isn’t happening, that Yellen will lose credibility because she refused to join their bandwagon and that Democrats will suffer in November because of a recession trolls insist is happening.

    Interesting, then, that the latest generic house ballot polls have narrowed the GOP advantage to 0.3%, essentially zero:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

    Yeah, the public is really torn up over that advance Q2 GDP print. Meanwhile, gasoline prices are falling:

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

    Crude prices suggest further decline in gasoline prices ahead:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Did you see where Princeton Steve thought I was saying Atlanta Fed and IHS Markit are recession cheerleaders? Yea – he is so effing dumb he does not get that I was going after him.

      Reply
  2. JohnH

    3Q estimate today: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. ”

    2Q Estimate, three months ago: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.8 percent on May 9, down from 2.2 percent on May 4.” It ended up at -0.9 percent.

    Interesting symmetry…

    And it is interesting how quickly some folks seize on the new estimate!

    Reply
    1. pgl

      It is interesting that you take any opportunity to trash anyone who refuses to get on your shaky little soap box. Please get insurance before you fall off again.

      Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Updated children’s story by JohnH.

          Child: Daddy, I am having nightmares about Russians bombing schools with children inside in Ukraine!
          Dad: Of course I oppose the invasion of Ukraine, but remember, because the US has done so many terrible things we cannot criticize it and certainly must not provide aid for Ukraine. Furthermore, those children were being taught that Ukraine exists, and Glorious President Putin the Great has made it clear that believing that means one is a Nazi, so those children were probably Nazis, so eliminating them helps in the all-important de-Nazification.
          Child: Oh thank you, Daddy! Now I shall sleep completely soundly!

          Reply
          1. JohnH

            Granted, Putin is doing bad things. But so has the US government, which acts in our name. Putin does not represent us. Our government does. It needs to be held accountable for the millions it has killed. And we as citizens need to make sure that that will not happen in the future. Most Americans would rather forgive and forget…and then self righteously criticize Putin instead. Until Americans do stop US’ bad behavior, they have no credibility criticizing Putin’s…

            But Rosser does not agree. He thinks that the pot calling the kettle black is brilliant, just brilliant!

          2. pgl

            JohnH
            August 2, 2022 at 10:58 am

            Your standard JohnH retort. It is pathetically childish, incredibly dishonest, and basically shows JohnH has zero principles. But we all knew that already.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            JohnH,

            Wow, you truly are utter slime.

            The US has pretty much stopped all that stuff you listed, some of which was not as bad as what Putin is doing. US looks pretty clean right now in most places, while Putin is engaging in war crimes that far exceed anything else going on in the world right now. Some of us here opposed the Iraq invasion, which is about the only thing you can come up with that is not far back in history. And I note with that Saddam fell quite quickly. It turned into a big mess, but Putin has not come anywhere near winning, and he has done stuff far worse than anything the US did in that war. The US did not deliberately bomb schools with children in them or maternity hospitals.

            You really are in a total moral sewer, JohnH, and you do not even seem to be remotely aware of that fact.

    2. Noneconomist

      Hey John, bad news. The US just took out another major terrorist, and we know how you squawk when that happens. It’s unfair in JohnLand when someone who’s responsible for thousands of deaths of innocents because it’s not right.
      See, nobody but you understands how the US has not been punished. So, you’ll mourn the death of Al-Zwahiri because it’s so unfair that nobody here cares about the drone who took him out. Unfair!
      Will you be leading the march in DC to protest this injustice?

      Reply
      1. JohnH

        Yawn! At least now we know that Biden’s not too old to do something!

        (Regardless of how inconsequential it is.)

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Taking out the master mind behind 9/11 is inconsequential?

          Never come to Manhattan with your disgusting disdain for the 3000 victims as New Yorkers get a bit angry over such pathetic statements.

          Reply
          1. JohnH

            Once again, pgl shows his total ignorance.

            Here’s a piece from a 28 year veteran of the CIA, someone who actually knows something:
            “ The US killing of Zawahiri was more retribution than prevention; According to documents obtained from the raid that killed bin Laden, al-Qaida’s 9/11 era leaders have little impact on current operations.”
            https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/08/02/the-us-killing-of-zawahiri-was-more-retribution-than-prevention/

            But Biden gets to put a notch in his belt and Americans get to revel in their vengeance while domestic war criminals go free and whistleblowers rot in jail.

          2. Noneconomist

            Americans bad. Kill Muslim for no reason (. Other than his role 9/11 in killing 3,000 Americans, destroying the World Trade Center, attack on the Pentagon, the crash of Flight 91, conspiracy to murder US citizens and nationals living broad, and other capital crimes)
            To bolster his outrage, JohnH quotes a “consummate CIA insider” as evidence no one should care.

          3. pgl

            “The documents captured in the raid that killed bin Ladin showed that during his last years in hiding bin Ladin was not functioning as an operational leader. His life then was more of a struggle to communicate with and exhort his followers. There is little reason to believe, based on what we know so far, that the life of Zawahiri in hiding was appreciably different.”

            Well OBL was in hiding in 2011. Zawahiri was living in style in downtown Kabul. Sorry Johnny boy but your ancient CIA dude is clearly out of touch, And you sir are still one disgusting little troll.

        2. Noneconomist

          Speaking of self righteous critics: there you go again, JH. How unfair are we to Putin? Really, really unfair!
          Sure, he’s a murdering tyrant, but there are lots of others like him. Unless and until we condemn all of them, just leave poor Vlad alone!
          This is JohnH’s perpetual “Man of LaMancha” moment. Going where the brave dare not go. He’ll follow that star…
          Twelve year olds cheer.

          Reply
          1. JohnH

            Noneconomist, in his defense of US behavior, might consider “A Question of Torture: CIA Interrogation, from the Cold War to the War on Terror” by Alfred McCoy. UW Professor

            “An indispensable and riveting account of the CIA’s development and use of torture, from the cold war to Abu Ghraib and beyond (Naomi Klein, The Nation)

            In this revelatory account of the CIA’s fifty-year effort to develop new forms of torture, historian Alfred W. McCoy locates the deep roots of recent scandals at Abu Ghraib and Guantánamo in a long-standing, covert program of interrogation. A Question of Torture investigates the CIA’s practice of “sensory deprivation” and “self-inflicted pain,” in which techniques including isolation, hooding, hours of standing, and manipulation of time assault the victim’s senses and destroy the basis of personal identity. McCoy traces the spread of these practices across the globe, from Vietnam to Iran to Central America, and argues that after 9/11, psychological torture became the weapon of choice in the CIA’s global prisons, reinforced by “rendition” of detainees to “torture-friendly” countries. Finally, McCoy shows that information extracted by coercion is worthless, making a strong case for the FBI’s legal methods of interrogation.
            on of Torture is a devastating indictment of inhumane practices that have damaged America’s laws, military, and international standing.”
            https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/question-of-torture-alfred-w-mccoy/1100625928

            Noneconomist howls about Putin but conveniently forgets that US SOS Madeleine Albright, when asked about the half million Iraqi children killed by sanction, replied that “the price is worth it.” And then he conveniently forgets the Iraq War and 665,000 excess civilian deaths estimated by the Lancet. Yet the perpetrators of this illegal war have never been held to account…and the government behavior has largely been forgotten by those who vigorously condemn Putin’s behavior today.

          2. Noneconomist

            JohnH embraces Putin. Insists that until everyone is held accountable, no one should be.
            By doing so, JohnH happily adopts thinking prevalent among adolescents who misbehave but who insist that everyone’s guilty so why should they be singled out for punishment? Hey, until Madeline Albright is punished (posthumously), why do we continue picking on Putin!
            That’s some mighty sophisticated thinkin’, JohnH. Twelve year olds cheer. Again.
            (JohnH takes out well worn Man of La Mancha LP, faces mirror and begins sing along; “I am I, Don Quixote, Lord of LaMancha,my destiny calls and I go…”)

  3. Rick Stryker

    Robert Barro weighs in:

    “The bottom line is that, with the announcement on July 28 of a two-quarter GDP decline, we can be highly confident that the US economy entered a recession early in 2022.”

    Reply
    1. pgl

      “Going back to before 1948, there was a false positive in 1947, when consecutive quarters of GDP decline did not result in the NBER declaring a recession. But in this case, the NBER presumably (and reasonably) was accounting for the fact that the GDP reduction in 1946-47 was driven by the demobilization from World War II. It recognized that with the release of economic resources due to decreased military spending, the economy was operating well despite a fall in real GDP. In any case, this consideration also does not apply in 2022.”

      Nice to see that Barro gets the late 1940’s. Your BFF Princeton Steve kept trying to tell us real GDP fell by 11% in 1947 which clearly was never true. And you applauded this Economic Know Nothing?

      Now if Barro can only remember we he scoffed at worrying about little changes in real GDP as nothing more than Keynesian noise.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        He did found new classical macroeconomics which basic core is there is no such thing as an aggregate demand led recession. Thanks for the reminder.

        Reply
    2. Barkley Rosser

      Rick,

      Right, and he forecast that if somebody cut taxes, the US savings rare would rise as people with rational expectations would know this meant a future even larger tax increase to pay off the interest payments. But then Reagan cut taxes and the savings rate fell.

      Barro is a brilliant man, but his forecasting and record of analyzing current events is simply awful. Probably the reason he still has not gotten a Nobel, despite being one of the most cited of living economists.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        I would like to challenge THE RICK to tell us what the Barro-Ricardian Equivalence proposition even is. I doubt he has a clue. BTW the prediction was that the Reagan fiscal stimulus would have little impact on national savings, which would mean it would not increase real interest rates. But as Greg Mankiw noted in his first macroeconomic text, national savings did fall a lot and real rates jumped from 2% to 6%.

        Another thing THE RICK does not get – Barro et al, were the founders of the New Classical model which basically says we do not have aggregate demand business cycles, which of course undermines that little oped THE RICK linked to.

        Simply put THE RICK is clueless when it comes to basic economics.

        Reply
        1. Rick Stryker

          pg13,

          If you think I don’t know Barro’s work on Ricardian Equivalence, you haven’t been paying attention.

          Just what are your qualifications in economics? I’ve never seen any evidence that you know much of anything from your comments.

          I have a PhD in economics and have worked as a professional economist in major, non-academic roles, places you would have heard of.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            “If you think I don’t know Barro’s work on Ricardian Equivalence, you haven’t been paying attention.”

            Maybe you have a degree in economics but what you write here shows your professors engaged in grade inflation. Now if you choose to share some of your “professional” (cough, cough) writing then we will see.

          2. pgl

            places you would have heard of?

            Really? Oh yea the Koch Brothers keep their work secret. Got it RICK!

      2. Rick Stryker

        Barkley,

        If forecasting were a prerequisite for the Nobel prize, Krugman could not have won it. Barro should have won by now but he’s been too openly conservative I fear.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          The Nobel Prize has gone to a lot of conservatives. For you to make such a dumb comment speaks volumes. But no – your comments here clearly show you have no clue what Dr. Barro wrote. None at all.

          Reply
      3. pgl

        Did you see where THE RICK claims he has a Ph.D. in economics? But he cannot explain what the Ricardian Equivalence proposition even is let alone how it might apply to fiscal policy in the early 1980’s? Huh! The RICK also does not seem to know what the New Classical macroeconomic model is and how it sort of inconsistent with that Barro op-ed about us heading for a recession. GEE!

        Now what Ph.D. program in economics turns out students so utterly incompetent? Maybe THE RICK can explain this to us.

        Reply
        1. Rick Stryker

          pg13,

          You challenged my credentials and I answered. PhD in econ plus professional experience in serious places you would have heard of.

          I asked you about your credentials, a question you don’t seem to want to answer. Do you have any degrees in economics? Any professional experience?

          Reply
  4. Not Trampis

    Mate, how can this be so when your country is at full employment and unemployment is not rising yet.

    I am not impressed I am still on moderation. This is discrimination against people down under

    Reply
    1. CoRev

      Mate, speaking of discrimination and bad polices, how’s your electricity bill going? With the extended use of renewables, especially solar panels, your bill must be near zero or even negative with the savings the renewables provide. If you’re electricity bill is not at or near zero then its probably because of discrimination from the Oz government.

      BTW, US unemployment insurance applications are trending up. Isn’t employment a lagging indicator?

      Reply
      1. pgl

        CoRev – even the dumb dogs who join chasing their own tails have decided based on this latest nonsensical rant that you are too insane to stay in the playground. I hope they treat your mental disease rather than decide to put you asleep for the good of the community.

        Reply
      1. pgl

        ‘Initial unemployment claims have been rising since March 19th.’

        Care to use FRED to graph this? Let’s see these claims were 265 thousand on 11/13/2021. They dropped a lot from then to your 3/19/2022 but yea claimed to 261 thousand as of 7/16/2022. But the next reporting had them dropping to 256 thousand.

        Come on Stevie – we have had enough with your LIES.

        Reply
      2. Barkley Rosser

        Steven,

        Yeah, they are back up to about where they were in December. A year ago they were around 400,000, now they are around 250,000. Kind of a slow upward creep not exactly showing up as a noticeably worsening job market yet.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          All basically true.

          They were higher on 7/23 than they were on 7/30. Stevie must have that even as CoRev the rabid dog sort of admitted the recent drop but it was hard to tell given his insanely loud barking and chasing of his own tail.

          BTW – does anyone of these Usual Suspects know how to use FRED to produce simple graphs? DAMN!

          Reply
  5. CoRev

    Bark Bark woof woof lying Barking Bierka the Disgusting NYC Jerk does his selective data dump again. So let’s look at some of the actual DOL announcement.
    “In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,500 from 240,500 to 243,000.https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
    Wonder how much the 7/23/2022 value of 256K will be revised? Is the economy cooling?

    You might want to look at the figure right below that statement.

    Reply
    1. Noneconomist

      Pom poms in hand, CoRev leads cheers, hopes for more bad news as is the case with most Trumpers. How wonderful for them if more Americans lose jobs!

      Reply
    2. pgl

      I wonder why CoRev did not put the 1st sentence in BOLD:

      In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

      What I said. Never hire CoRev as your defense attorney!

      Reply

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