Prediction Markets on Wisconsin Races

From PredictIt today:

Figure 1: Contract price for Democratic candidate over (1-price) for governor’s race (blue), for senate race (tan). 9/6 observation is noon ET. Source: PredictIt accessed 12:15PM ET, and author’s calculations. 

Note that as of today, 538 has Evers +1 for governors race, no tabulation for senate (probably because the sample is considered too small). RealClearPolitics reports Fox registered voters (8/12-16) at Barnes 50 to 46 (most recent 8/22-25 done by Trafalgar group is 49-47).

11 thoughts on “Prediction Markets on Wisconsin Races

  1. Moses Herzog

    If Johnson gets knocked out that would be like Manna direct from Heaven. Man, that guy is a jack-ass.

    You’re purposely stirring me up because you know I’m drinking today, aren’t you Menzie?!?!?! (just a silly joke)

  2. ltr

    To be precise about China’s thoroughly “constructive participation with the wider world”…

    As of August 2022, there were 149 countries that were a part of the Belt and Road Initiative — including virtually every country across Africa.

    There are more than 3 billion people among the expanding number of BRICS+ countries. There are the 8 member, 4 observer and 6 dialogue partner countries of the expanding Shanghai Cooperation Organization. There is the 10 country ASEAN trade compact.  There is the 15 country RCEP trade compact. *

    * Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

    There is far, far more to China’s wonderfully “constructive participation with the wider world,” but a summary can begin from here.

    1. ltr

      September 6, 2022

      China’s agricultural imports from Zimbabwe grow 111.6 pct
      China imported agricultural products worth 332 million U.S. dollars from Zimbabwe in the first seven months of this year, an increase of 111.6 percent year on year, the Chinese Embassy has said.

      HARARE — China imported agricultural products worth 332 million U.S. dollars from Zimbabwe in the first seven months of this year, an increase of 111.6 percent year on year, the Chinese Embassy has said.

      The huge jump in imports underlines China’s potential as a big market for Zimbabwe’s agricultural products, the embassy noted.

      “As well, China has high-yield investment and tech cooperation in Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector,” the embassy said in a tweet earlier last week.

      As the Chinese people’s appetite for Zimbabwean agricultural products grows, the General Administration of Customs of China recently issued an announcement allowing the import of fresh citrus from Zimbabwe that meets relevant requirements.

      The fresh citrus to be exported include sweet orange, mandarin, grapefruit, lemon and lime.

      Zimbabwe has the advantage of good natural conditions that are beneficial for producing cheap, sweet and juicy citrus. The country’s marketing period is also different from the domestic citrus market in China, which can meet a certain demand in the Chinese market.

      The Zimbabwean government is currently working to boost horticulture production to meet the growing demand for citrus fruits worldwide.

      On Thursday last week, Zimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube launched a 30-million-U.S.-dollar export revolving fund to revive the once vibrant horticultural sector….

      1. Macroduck

        C’mon, Andrew! All posts are about China – the China which doesn’t exist. (Any mention of China as it exists is racist.)

        1. Moses Herzog

          It’s “kind of” humorous, isn’t it?? IN a “jaded” way. My Brother MD, , I gotta look at it in a “jaded” way. Or I can’t continue. It’s that hard.

          I wasn’t born yet, I often wonder, “How would I have felt when MLK died??” How do they do all the things they do, and not even care about a human being you died, BECAUSE the pigment of his skin?? And we’re all so “surprised” that these MAGA idiots are running around?? It’s the children of the people who DIDN’T CARE MLK died.

  3. James

    One story that I don’t see covered in national media about Wisconsin is that several grassroots Dem candidates (mostly women) are running in GOP assembly districts. They are running on protecting women’s right to healthcare and education funding. Of course – they have an uphill battle in these GOP gerrymandered districts – but – to me – an example of the pundits/villagers missing the trees and forest because they are focused on rotten sinkhole of GOP/Trump.
    To me – it is similar to when Youngkin won in Va with a focus on rejecting “woke” culture in schools -(i.e. B.S,) but here in Wisconsin in the WOW counties (normally very GOP) – the RW dingbats were rejected in some hotly contested school board races in favor of current/moderate candidates – (BTW-the RW reactionary Bradley Foundation – poured tons of $ into these races.)
    Strictly anecdotally info – but I think many women in Wisconsin (D or R or Ind) do not want to go back to 1849 in terms of their healthcare.

    1. Ivan

      Standard gerrymandering procedure is to set up districts that are “safe” for “us” by a 60-40 margin and others that are safe for them by a >90 % margin. However those are based on known party preferences and turnout rates in each geographical area. If turnout rates for one side or the other change drastically, or if swing votes split unusually large in favor of one side – then all bets are off. Thats how Pelosi became speaker back in the Bush days.

      The abortion issue could do a lot of harm to GOP in their own gerrymandered districts. They had the luxury of being extreme on the abortion issue as long as the supreme court protected them from seeing it carried out as real policy. Now it’s real: are you going to force a woman to carry an ectopic pregnancy until she is almost dead? – or are you going to kill a fetus that has a heartbeat? – You can only pick only one, and either choice will make a lot of voters angry. If they disband their hard core pro-(fetal) life positions their base will be disgusted and stay home on election day, if they retain it a lot of women will get angry and come out to vote for the democrat.

Comments are closed.