Russian GDP in Q2

Quarter-on-quarter numbers are out (y/y were out earlier). From Iikka Korhonen:

Source: Iikka Korhonen.

Q1 q/q growth (as measured) was -0.3% (not annualized), while Q2 was -1.9%.

EconoFact podcast of sanctions effectiveness here.

 

29 thoughts on “Russian GDP in Q2

    1. Moses Herzog

      I’m glad benevolent and all-knowing Xi JInping has refused the white demons’ offers of mRNA vaccines. It has saved them from the imperialism of evil white devil apeman.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62830326

      https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/covid-infections-08092022181748.html

      “So far, the Chinese drug regulator has approved seven COVID-19 vaccines. Most residents of China are vaccinated with one of two inactivated-virus vaccines, either CoronaVac, made by Beijing-based company Sinovac, or BBIBP-CorV, made by the state-supported company Sinopharm in Beijing. The inactivated-virus vaccines are effective at reducing the risk of hospitalization and death1, but provide less protection than do the two mRNA vaccines developed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna, which have been used widely outside China. ‘From data of all the COVID-19 vaccines available in the world, the mRNA technology seems to be better compared to other technologies,’ says Feng Gao, a virologist at Jinan University in Guangzhou, China.

      Chinese companies had planned to import the mRNA vaccine made by BioNTech and Pfizer. As early as March 2020, a Shanghai-based drug company, Fosun Pharma, struck a deal with BioNTech to sell its vaccine on the Chinese mainland and in Hong Kong once the regulators greenlit the product. But the approval of the highly effective vaccine is still pending on the mainland, despite data from a phase II trial in China showing that the vaccine triggers a robust immune response and is safe to use in adults2.

      The reasons for the delay are unclear, but it’s likely to be political, says Yanzhong Huang, a specialist in Chinese health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City.

      The Chinese government has accepted foreign clinical-trial data to accelerate drug-approval processes since 2017. And drugs that are required urgently, such as vaccines during a pandemic, can receive fast-tracked reviews. ‘There’s no other reason to explain the delay except techno-nationalism,’ Huang says. He adds that the Chinese government probably prefers its first mRNA vaccine to be a home-grown jab such as ARCoV.”
      https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01690-3

      Lemembaw white devil wih get you eventuaree. Lemembaw!!! Being agleeabruh to assistance in saving your own citizens’ lives mean you “roose face” to de white demons. Yes, yes, ar-ways teloo.

      Reply
      1. Ivan

        The good news is that in spite of having refused to give their people the best possible protection in case of Covid-19 exposure, they have managed to reduce the chance of said exposure by draconian lock down measures. So one screw up saved them from the consequences of another screw up – at least up until now. With Omicron B4 and B5 coming at them fast – they better get those “made in China” mRNA vaccinations ready.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          I have a lot of mixed feelings about the lockdown. It does have some positive attributes~~~but the main thing is, it was avoidable, and if you’re a Chinese family low on groceries being held captive in your high rise building apartment, I’d think that would be near maddening at some point. Or possibly worse, living alone. But either way, being prisoner in your own home with no food. Then they wonder why some of them reacted violently towards PSB and public health officials. You go 1-2 weeks without any food, I don’t care how much of a peaceful soul you’ve got, you’d be ready to butt heads with a wild buffalo at that point.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            “I have a lot of mixed feelings about the lockdown. It does have some positive attributes”.

            You do know Dr. Bruce Hall dispute these positive attributes. BTW he has stocked up on bleach made in China.

          2. Ivan

            Until the vaccines, lockdowns were the only way to fight a very deadly disease that killed about 1 for every 80 diagnosed people. China’s zero Covid policy was the most effective lockdown in the world and they got the pandemic under control much better than most other countries with less stringent policies. Australia and New Zealand were also very effective, using less draconian policies – but they had some geographical advantages.

            After the RNA vaccines became widely available it was more of a debate whether there was sufficient “return on investment” from many of the restrictions that had been successfully used to hold back the pandemic and avoid a breakdown of heath care systems in the first year. Even in the US where government imposed restrictions had been mild – and we had paid the price with loss of 1 million people (out of a population of 330 million) – it made sense to further decrease government mandates and leave it up to the individuals. Those who were concerned could get their shots, wear N95 masks and stay away from risky spots. Those who were not, would no longer cause the break down of hospitals and overcrowd morgues. This approach was tested by the Delta/Omicron 1 spike last winter where things were strained, but held, in spite of record high hospitalizations.

            At this time we are dealing with Omicron B4 and B5. They are much more infective making lockdowns and zero policies less effective (or restrictions have to be more draconian to be effective). The good news is that they also are less deadly. We may now be able to talk about “like a bad flu” without being laughed at by people who know stuff. Although the old formulations of RNA vaccines are less protective, there are new sub-strain specific boosters that may mitigate that problem, at least to some extend.

            Australia and New Zealand got it right. They got everybody vaccinated with RNA vaccines then dropped government restrictions – and their health care systems were able to deal with the rush of Covid cases. US got it wrong with over a million dead. China got it wrong with continuing a policy that is doomed to eventually fail and will harm the economy both short- and long-term.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Ivan
            You stated it exceptionally well, I have to say. But if I had a small bone of contention to pick, it’s that they could/should have been more accepting of receiving foreign/western vaccines. And Menzie or anyone can correct me here, but based on pretty bad relations recently, I thought America and other western nations made a pretty good effort to give them better vaccines than China’s domestically made ones. That’s human lives unnecessarily lost , and a lot of suffering even if no one in “your” (Chinese) family died, sitting in an apartment home with no food and dying of boredom with no social stimulation.

            It’s a lot of societal pain just so Chinese officials can sit around going “Well, at least we didn’t take any pity handouts from those bastard westerners”. Is that worth it?!?!?!?!

  1. Macroduck

    Just gandering at the chart, this appears to be the same magnitude of decline as after the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, over a shorter period. Back then, Russia’s troubles from sanctions were compounded by a sharp fall in world oil prices. Oil is down considerably less this time. This round of sanctions are working pretty well to weaken Russia’s economy.

    Reply
  2. genauer

    Sooo,

    the Sanctions are working great, reducing living standards, ….. in Germany and other EU countries.

    Russia enjoys a trade surplus of some 6.8%, versus the US 2.x % deficit (from the top of my head),
    because all oil and gas not bought by the, are now bought by India and China.

    And the consequences of the US and EU threats are that OPEC+ now reduces output, increasing prices.

    China and Russia now going pretty openly into alliance.

    The 2% momentary GDP reduction in 2Q2022 is a mere blip versus the 9% drop we had in the Covid 2Q2020

    Therefore Putin enjoys a record popularity of 82% (Levada), while in Germany the knifes are brought out for the presently ruling Greenie regime. And wait until we have the first real power disruptions, very predictable.

    The Russians see the US for what it is, a mortal enemy, and then you make do with some decent home made Mozarella, and not the hand wrung Buffalo Milk Mozarelly from Italy. BTW, home much does that cost nowadays in the US ? And real Prosciutto di Parma, not some US copy?

    Reply
    1. Macroduck

      Man, where have you been? The claptrap you’re pushing has already been tried here, and already been thoroughly rejected. And ridiculed.

      Russia attacked Ukraine. Democratic nations responded with support for Ukraine, including through economic sanctions on Russia. It was a moral choice, not an exonmic one. The working assumption in economics regarding trade is that both parties are made better off. Trade sanctions, conversely, make both sides worse off. Both sdes. Here you are, pretending only one side is suffering from sanctions, Ukraine’s democratic allies. That’s utterly dishonest.

      You think pointing out that moral choices come at a cost is somehow point against making that choice? It’s evidence of the moral goodness of the people who make that choice.

      So tell us, do you support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Is that your point here, a point you don’t want to make outright?

      Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          Between Rick Stryker and genbender, we now know that cheese trade is the most important barometer of Russian success in Ukraine.

          Reply
    2. Macroduck

      I’m not surprised that a member of Pooty-Poot’s poodle patrol has naothing to offwr but a shallow jibe. I mean, it must be hard to work up much original thought after your boys performed so badly on the battlefield. Again.

      What does surprise me is the ratio of Russian trolls to Chinese trolls in comments. China may not produce much original thought under current management, but China has numbers! Why do we only have one full-time Xi sycophant but we have several Putin holsters?

      Maybe the problem is that I can’t tell the difference between Make America Gross Again types and true Russian troll-farm employees. Though in this case, genauer more or less admits to being Russian.

      genauer, a little advice, when spewing nonsense on an economic blog: make at peast a half-hearted effort at making economic sense.I mean, really, you’re as bad at trash talk as Russia’s army is at fighting. You say:

      “The 2% momentary GDP reduction in 2Q2022 is a mere blip versus the 9% drop we had in the Covid 2Q2020.”

      First, no honest person would call the hit to Russia’s economy from sanctions – and the cost of war, by the way – “momentary”. That’s idiotic. Equally idiotic is to pretend Germany is in paroxysms of economic agony while Russia is coasting right along, using Q2 of 2020 and 2022 to make the point. Germany lost 10% of GDP in Q2 2020 and gained 1.7% in Q2 this year. A “mere blip” indeed.

      Reply
      1. genauer

        So, you are a typical example of what has become of the US. No facts, you can not refute the facts I brought, so you just have to resort to name calling.

        Strutting around, while you sing your last hooray. Whom the gods would destroy ….

        People with low intelligence and character make up pure phantasies like “more or less admits”. I had US military secret clearing probably before you have even been born.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          I had US military secret clearing probably before you have even been born.”

          I see – we are dealing with Michael Flynn. You HAD this clearance but I’m sure this got taken away in early 2021.

          Reply
          1. genauer

            The same with you, no facts, just pgl, “phantasy generated lies”, the refuge of people shown to be wrong on the facts

    3. Barkley Rosser

      genauer,

      That trade surplus you think is something to brag about is largely driven by a massive collapse of imports due to sanctions, many of which were helping the Russian war machine, which is hurting without them.

      Since this recent setback in Kharkiv, there is now open criticism of Putin and his war on Russian media for the first time. I think those popularity numbers are going to change, a bit out of date now.

      Reply
  3. AndrewG

    Related: Goldman’s Samantha Dart on Europe’s ability to weather the energy crisis:

    Europe’s Energy Crisis is at a Tipping Point | 08 SEP 2022 | Goldman Sachs
    https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/europe-energy-crisis-is-at-a-tipping-point.html

    The stuff about progress on reducing demand was particularly interesting. She says “impressive.” Nothing like war to get people to work together.

    If Europe can pull through this year with minimal suffering and political disruption – which seems at least vaguely possible – then Putin will have yet another major own-goal.

    Reply
    1. Ivan

      Also nothing like high prices incentivizing reduction in use. If heating gets 10 times more costly a lot of people will be willing to reduce the thermostat by 10 degrees or more – and then wear extra sock and a sweater indoors. Heat supplements to social security recipients is already implemented in many places so they can simply increase those payments.

      If Europe get a mild winter the NG markets could crash. If they get a harsh winter they may have to close down the 1-2% most energy intensive industries. They will get through this winter one way or another and then Putin is indeed screwed. They will never lift the ban on imports of Russian hydrocarbons, because they will be forced to protect their investments in doing without.

      Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      What did our Moms tell us when we were little?? “If you can’t say anything nice……. ”

      Or was it “Don’t speak bad of the recently croaked”??

      [ Starts to hear KC and the Sunshine Band’s “Get Down Tonight” playing in the background of my head ]

      Reply
      1. Macroduck

        You’ll note I did not mention the Clintons or Susan McDougal, nor their likely facial expressions upon hearing the news. I did not mention Starr’s series of high-profile courtroom failures and unsavory clints after the Clinton impeachment. I take the high road and let Rolling Stone take care of journalism:

        https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/ken-starr-dead-1234592249/

        ( He repesented Blackwater, Trump and Epstein, opposed same-sex marriage, flubbed dealing with campus rape..)

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          See, that’s the kind of thing that makes me aware I am getting old, I had completely forgot he was at Baylor when that whole thing exploded. Completely forgot~~and I had read about it more than once.

          I’ll tell you a weird one~~not that anyone cares, but just as a personal aside. Have you ever liked someone or found them “likable” or “engaging” and even though you knew this person wasn’t a “role model” you found you couldn’t help but like them on some level?? I was always kind of a James McDougal fan. And I even have his autobiography here in the house somewhere, and have read a good 3/4ths of the book. I always found him relatable in video interviews (very weird, I know). The man died in federal prison, and one of the things I found “endearing” (for lack of better descriptive word) about James McDougal, he was sitting in federal prison, a broken man, probably knew he was dying, and he wouldn’t say a single word negative about his wife, even when the interviewers baited him to do so. I just, I know it sounds dumb but I just honestly found that moving on some level.

          I think James McDougal was actually a very intelligent smalltown guy. Kind of like the “wily smalltown southern lawyer” type. Rural in his outlook on life, but very sharp-minded man, and not as amoral has he looked on the surface. And I think he let his faith in the better characteristics of the Clintons (and yes, SOME pragmatic self-interest) get the better of him. He could have been a David Axelrod type, or even he could have been a U.S. House Rep had he played his cards slightly differently~~~and I think, been a damned good politician. A hybrid, if you will of Carl Albert, Dan Rostenkowski, and William Fulbright. I think he was a super-intelligent guy and how it went down, with the financial crimes, and with his wife, is rather sad. Not “pathetic sad”~~but rather “lost potential” sad.

          Reply
      2. pgl

        Wait – an affair is impeachable but rape is OK? Oh wait – that I like beer dude helped Starr with Lewinsky and personally raped women and he is on the Supreme Court.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          There’s another little item I had almost forgot about. Kavanaugh was making it up as he went along—or was he Starr’s stenographer?? Already exhibiting what a piece of shit he was. One who commits multiple rapes (Kavanaugh), the other (Starr) tries to cover/conceal multiple rapes on a college campus from police. Birds of a feather fly together. But don’t do anything naughty with a cigar with a more than willing girl desperately needing validation after the wife has turned her head away yawning on scores of others. That very “well-balanced” young lady will save her dress for her future film efforts, and those who rationalize/commit rape will be hellhounds on your trail.

          Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      @ joseph
      Didn’t you just always kind of inherently know Dick Cheney, Kissinger, Newt Gingrich, Art Laffer, Peter Wallison, and Skeletor were going to live longer than the rest of us??

      Did Larry Kudlow snorting 500 pounds of cocaine 10 minutes before his interview with Jake Tapper teach you nothing?!?!?!?!

      Reply

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