Jim will have more in a few hours, but for now, here is GDPNow as of 10/26, compared to monthly GDP (as of October 4), and the Philadelphia Fed Concident Index.
Figure 1: Coincident index for US (teal), monthly GDP from IHS-Markit (pink), and official GDP (blue bars), all normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 is GDPNow nowcast as of 10/26. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: Philadelphia Fed, IHS-Markit (10/4 release), BEA, and Atlanta Fed (10/26 release), and author’s calculations.
Note that the coincident index for the US, reflecting monthly labor market and other indicators, has been on a steady upward trend throughout a putative H1 2022 recession.
In addition, whatever downturn there has been at a regional level, it does not seem to have risen to recessionary levels, at least according to the diffusion index associated with the coincident index.
Figure 2: Coincident index for US (blue, left scale), diffusion index for 1 month changes of coincident index (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough rececssion dates shaded gray. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: Philadelphia Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.
Here’s the map for the US, using three month growth rates in the coincident indices, showing how widespread (or not) declines in economic activity are.
Source: Philadelphia Fed, 10/26/2022 release.