On the Eve of the Q3 GDP Release: Coincident Index and GDPNow

Jim will have more in a few hours, but for now, here is GDPNow as of 10/26, compared to monthly GDP (as of October 4), and the Philadelphia Fed Concident Index.

Figure 1: Coincident index for US (teal), monthly GDP from IHS-Markit (pink), and official GDP (blue bars), all normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 is GDPNow nowcast as of 10/26. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: Philadelphia Fed, IHS-Markit (10/4 release), BEA, and Atlanta Fed (10/26 release), and author’s calculations.

Note that the coincident index for the US, reflecting monthly labor market and other indicators, has been on a steady upward trend throughout a putative H1 2022 recession.

In addition, whatever downturn there has been at a regional level, it does not seem to have risen to recessionary levels, at least according to the diffusion index associated with the coincident index.

Figure 2: Coincident index for US (blue, left scale), diffusion index for 1 month changes of coincident index (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough rececssion dates shaded gray. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: Philadelphia Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.

Here’s the map for the US, using three month growth rates in the coincident indices, showing how widespread (or not) declines in economic activity are.

Source: Philadelphia Fed, 10/26/2022 release.

19 thoughts on “On the Eve of the Q3 GDP Release: Coincident Index and GDPNow

  1. ltr


    October 27, 2022

    China’s FDI inflow surpasses 1 trln yuan in Jan-Sept

    BEIJING — Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 15.6 percent year on year to 1.00376 trillion yuan in the first nine months of the year, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

    In U.S. dollar terms, the inflow went up 18.9 percent year on year to 155.3 billion U.S. dollars.

    The service industry saw FDI inflow jump by 6.7 percent year on year to 741.43 billion yuan, while that of high-tech industries surged by 32.3 percent from a year earlier, data from the ministry showed.

    Specifically, FDI in high-tech manufacturing rose 48.6 percent from the same period a year ago, while that in the high-tech service sector surged 27.9 percent year on year.

    During the period, investment from Germany, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom climbed by 114.3 percent, 90.7 percent, 39.5 percent, and 22.3 percent, respectively.

    FDI flowing into the country’s central region reported a year-on-year increase of 34.8 percent, followed by 33 percent in the western region and 13.3 percent in the eastern region.

    Foreign-funded companies in China remain upbeat about the Chinese market and generally speak well of China’s business environment as well as macroeconomic policies, Sun Xiao, spokesperson for the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, told a press conference on Thursday.

    In the third quarter, foreign enterprises’ satisfaction ratings on market access, promoting market competition, obtaining business premises and acquiring financial services increased by 1.99, 1.84, 1.52 and 1.43 percentage points, respectively, compared with the second quarter, Sun said, citing a recent survey conducted by the council.

    1. ltr


      October 24, 2022

      China’s foreign trade in goods up 9.9% in Jan.-Sept.

      China’s foreign trade in goods jumped 9.9 percent year on year to 31.11 trillion yuan ($4.75 trillion) during the first nine months of 2022, official data showed Monday.

      Exports rose 13.8 percent year on year to 17.67 trillion yuan, while imports increased 5.2 percent from a year ago to 13.44 trillion yuan, according to the General Administration of Customs.

      From January to September, China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, and the United States grew 15.2 percent, 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

      In this period, China’s trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries soared 20.7 percent year on year to 10.04 trillion yuan.

      Private enterprises saw imports and exports increase 14.5 percent from a year ago to 15.62 trillion yuan in the first nine months, accounting for 50.2 percent of the country’s total.

      Exports of mechanical and electrical products expanded by 10 percent to account for 56.8 percent of the country’s total, and exports of labor-intensive industry products jumped 12.7 percent from a year ago.

  2. pgl


    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.

    The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 30, 2022.

  3. pgl

    Looking at the details, it seems investment fell (the FED’s increase in interest rates is doing its damage), private consumption is up a little, and government purchases increased. On the international side, exports rose and imports fell which is a bit surprising given the dollar appreciation.

    1. ltr


      January 15, 2020

      Shares of Gross Domestic Product for Private Fixed Nonresidential & Residential Investment Spending, Government Consumption & Gross Investment and Exports of Goods & Services, 2020-2022


      January 15, 2020

      Shares of Gross Domestic Product for Private Fixed Nonresidential & Residential Investment Spending, Government Consumption & Gross Investment and Exports of Goods & Services, 2020-2022

      (Indexed to 2020)

      1. ltr


        January 15, 2018

        Shares of Gross Domestic Product for Private Fixed Nonresidential & Residential Investment Spending, Government Consumption & Gross Investment and Exports of Goods & Services, 2017-2022


        January 15, 2018

        Shares of Gross Domestic Product for Private Fixed Nonresidential & Residential Investment Spending, Government Consumption & Gross Investment and Exports of Goods & Services, 2017-2022

        (Indexed to 2017)

  4. pgl

    I hope Dean Baker makes his review of this BEA release available as the email I got has lots of very interesting information and commentary including:

    The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose at an annual rate of 4.5 percent in the third quarter, down from 5.6 percent in the first quarter and 4.7 percent in the second quarter. While the 4.5 percent pace is well above the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, the direction of change is noteworthy. If inflation were being driven largely by an excessively tight labor market, then inflation should be accelerating, not slowing.

    I know – this noting that inflation is coming down is going to get MAGA ubertroll all angry again but Dean has a chart that will really set off this sad little boy as the chart shows how Federal spending fell under Obama only to skyrocket under Trump and then fall again under Biden. Not exactly the spin Kelly Anne Conway orders Brucie boy to spew.

  5. pgl

    How appalling was the Department of Justice under Trump and Barr?


    he Department of Justice issued new rules barring the agency from using subpoenas, search warrants and certain court orders to seize information or records from journalists as it probes leaks of government information, a major policy shift promised last year by Attorney General Merrick Garland. Garland first put in place temporary policies in July 2021 amid reports the DOJ, under then-Attorney General William Barr, had secretly sought email records of reporters from several news outlets that reported critically on the Trump administration. Targets included journalists at CNN, The Washington Post and The New York Times, and the revelations prompted fury from advocates for the free press.

    It is odd that conservative Republicans complain when Putin and Xi behave this way but they bowed down to King Donald I who was just as bad.

  6. pgl

    Real GDP in 2022QIII was $16 billion higher than it was in 2021QIV.

    Real GDI for the most recent quarter has not yet been announced but we do know it rose slightly over the first two quarters.

    Of course, the RECESSION CHEERLEADERS have been painting a very different picture. Of course, each of these cheerleaders routinely lie here so hey!

  7. pgl


    During an annual speech at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin said: “They are fuelling the war in Ukraine, escalating provocations around Taiwan, destabilising the world food and energy markets.” “As far as the last one is concerned, it was not deliberate, we don’t doubt that, it was due to systemic errors.”

    This is the kind of utter BS that we routinely get from JohnH. Of course, Putin is both lying and paying his little puppets like JohnH to repeat his pathetic little lies.

    Putin went on appealing to Trumpian MAGA hat racists by bashing transgenders. Yes – Putin is a sicko but hey he got his boy elected as our 45th President 6 years ago.

    1. Ivan

      Yes he was basically trying to tell the right wing in the west that he is “one of you”. In many ways he is right about that (homophobia, xenophobia, fake Christianity, suppression of Woman, Authoritarianism, etc.). However, the US constitution, personal freedom and democracy are the anthesis of what Putin stands for. The US right wing has to make some choices here about who they are and who they are not.

  8. pgl

    Little Lindsey Graham actually said that Trumpians like him supporting Hershel Uncle Tom Walkers proves that Trumpians like him are certainly not racist. I guess little Lindsey does not realize how utterly racist what his little rant really was. BTW little Lindsey in 1998 proudly got an impeachment of Bill Clinton on a blow job but that Hershel beats girl friends, coerces them to get abortions, ignores his children, and calls them all liars make Hershel a great leader. MAGA!

  9. pgl


    OK – my take down of racist Lindsey Graham pales in comparison to what Whoopi Goldberg had to say about little Lindsey!

    The View’s Whoopi Goldberg on Thursday tore into Sen. Lindsey Graham’s assertion that Republicans can’t be racist because they nominated Herschel Walker for Senate, calling it “insulting” and “ignorant as hell.”

    Following yet another allegation that the staunchly anti-abortion Walker urged a woman to abort their child, Graham has pulled out all the stops while trying to help push the ex-football star over the line in the pivotal Georgia Senate race. This included a joint interview on Fox News’ Hannity Wednesday night in which Graham suggested Walker’s campaign was groundbreaking due to his race.

    “He changes the entire narrative of the left. We’re a party of racists, Sean,” the South Carolina senator exclaimed to host Sean Hannity. “Me and you are racists! The Republican Party is racist! Well, what happens when the Republican Party elects and nominates Herschel Walker, an African American, Black Heisman Trophy winner, right? Olympian. It destroys the whole narrative!”

    Taking it even further, Graham then claimed that Democrats were “scared to death” of Walker’s GOP affiliation because it could mean that “maybe every other young child in America of color might want to be a Republican.”

    Discussing Graham’s remarks at the top of Thursday’s broadcast, Goldberg didn’t mince words while ripping the GOP lawmaker.

    “Here’s the thing you need to know, Lindsey: Just because we see a Black person, doesn’t mean we do monkey see, monkey do,” she declared to audience applause.
    “And I’m sure that you don’t know how insulting that is, but let us just say to you, don’t ever say that again because you look ignorant as hell,” Goldberg continued as the crowd once again roared. “Don’t do that!”

    Adding that “it doesn’t work that way,” the longtime View star noted that “it may work that way” for Graham because “we know what you are up to.” She then said that Black voters “don’t just get people because they look the right way” but rather “ actually have to find the people that can actually do the damn job.”

    Co-host Sunny Hostin, meanwhile, claimed that the “sad thing about this” is that the GOP and former President Donald Trump recruited a “woefully under-qualified” Walker to run only because Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, is also African-American.

    “They wanted someone who was Black to confront him, to oppose him,” she proclaimed.

    “To fool us, ’cause we don’t know—we can’t tell each other apart,” Goldberg snarked in response.

  10. ltr


    October 27, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 231 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 231 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 193 attributed to local transmissions and 38 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    A total of 1,033 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Wednesday, and 15,557 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 258,398, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases


    Chinese mainland new imported cases


    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases


  11. ltr


    October 28, 2022

    Oral COVID-19 vaccine booster now available

    SHANGHAI — People in Shanghai now have the choice to get vaccinated against COVID-19 in a new way: through the mouth.

    Since this week, the Chinese city has started administering a needle-free COVID-19 vaccine, which can instead be aerosolized and inhaled by vaccine takers.

    “It takes just a few seconds to breathe in,” a resident said after the oral administration at a local vaccination site on Wednesday. “It’s much easier than getting a shot,” said the vaccinee, who had received two intramuscular jabs before.

    The inhalable booster is an adenovirus type 5 vector-based vaccine, jointly developed by a research team led by Chen Wei, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the Chinese biotech company CanSino Biologics Inc. It is being offered only as a booster dose for previous COVID-19 vaccine recipients.

    “The inhaled dose is 0.1 milliliter. Vaccinees need to put the nozzle of a white bottle into their mouths, inhale the gas inside deeply, and hold a breath for at least five seconds to finish the procedure,” said He Jinhui, a local hospital nurse, who explained the basic vaccination instructions.

    Although the inhaled dose is only about a fifth of a traditional intramuscular vaccine dose, it can elicit a stronger immune response.

    Zhu Tao, a chief scientist at CanSino, said that compared with injection, inhalation can stimulate one more type of immune response — mucosal immunity.

    “The inhalable vaccine can effectively increase the level of neutralizing antibodies in body fluids, and also produce IgA antibody in the respiratory mucosa, which can strengthen the current vaccines’ ability to prevent Omicron from infecting the upper respiratory tract,” Zhu professed.

    The needle-free vaccine is not only less painful but also tastes a little sweet, some vaccinees found.

    Zhu said the sweet flavor was due to the very low concentrations of sucrose that were added to the vaccine, which can help improve the stability of the viral vector.

    Researchers conducted a randomized clinical trial last year to evaluate the booster vaccine’s safety and immunogenicity as a booster jab in 420 Chinese participants. The results * were published in the journal Lancet Respiratory Medicine, showing that it is well tolerated and can induce high neutralizing antibody levels against COVID-19 in adults.

    China has approved the inhalable vaccine for emergency use among populations aged 18 and above who had received two doses of traditional vaccines, but not within the previous six months. The vaccine developer said it was planning to apply for expanding the oral vaccination reach.

    “I am afraid of needles and injection pain. I think the inhaled vaccine must be easier to administer,” said a Shanghai resident surnamed Ding, who made a vaccination appointment on Wednesday.

    * https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(22)00087-X.pdf

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