As of 23:00 hrs (GMT+2) on 10/31 (Militaryland.net):
Note the funny looking symbols above the Russian units (a II for battalion with an inverted “U” shaped symbol) denotes battalion tactical group (BTG), a combined arms group of roughly battalion size.
Hershel Walker claims he is a good dad who cares about his children but this is a LIE, LIE, LIE:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/woman-who-accused-herschel-walker-of-pressuring-her-into-abortion-honesty-matters/ar-AA13BwZN?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a18e5edff54641e3876296a3677079f0
Speaking with Juju Chang, co-anchor of ABC News’ “Nightline,” the woman said that in 1993 she became pregnant amid a yearslong affair with Walker, saying they saw each other “several times a week, usually in the mornings” and that they were in love. “[Walker] was very clear that he did not want me to have the child. And he said that because of his wife’s family and powerful people around him that I would not be safe and that the child would not be safe,” the woman said. “I felt threatened and I thought I had no choice,” said the woman, who has come forward on camera for the first time since making her allegations public at a press conference last week with her attorney, Gloria Allred.
If she gave birth to the kid, Hershel’s people would threaten the kid? Hershel Walker is monster not a Christian. But hey – it is MAGA world.
OK another off topic but I have been noting how MAGA world has decided to attack the victim of a vicious assault (Paul Pelosi). I missed a few of these vile outbursts but Kevin Drum has a pretty good list:
https://jabberwocking.com/the-maga-right-takes-repulsive-behavior-to-whole-new-levels-over-paul-pelosi/
Seems pretty obvious that the Russian military is not going to defend Kherson Oblast with much of any real effort. They may dig in at the City of Kherson to keep Putin happy. Apparently Putin is still convinced that the weak westerners will end their support for Ukraine when winter starts biting. He may allow for some fallback now if he is convinced that everything will turn his way by spring.
Ivan,
One report I have seen, which does not seem to appear on this map so maybe a bunch of hooey, is that the Russians are setting up lots of artillery across from Kherson on the east bank of the Dnipro River. The plot according to this report is that if and or when the Ukrainians actually get in to Kherson city, they will artillery the heck out of it like they did to Mariupol, and so either prevent them from taking it or leave then with a totally ruined city if they do take it, with the Ukrainians generally avoiding bombing or artillerizing their own cities as they retake them, usually taking them by surrounding them to the point the Russians simply withdraw, although I gather some small villages have been pretty much bombed to smithereens by both sides.
The military guys on both sides know that it is advantage Ukraine on the west side of Dnipro river and advantage Russia on the east side. Ukraine has tried to hammer supply lines rather than smack their way to the river – to save soldiers. The two places on the west bank that Russia may try and hold is Nova Kakhovka where they get water to Crimea, and Kherson City. There are no tactical reasons to take big loses in fights there, but Putin has his ego stuck there and may make yet another big mistake fighting over something that he shouldn’t. ISW suggested today that most of Russias remaining conventional forces are in Kherson oblast, which would suggest another major error by Putin. This is not where he needs the professional soldiers to be concentrated.
Putin really is amazingly inept at war strategy. He want Europeans to whine and give up helping Ukraine when they get cold, but then he feeds their sympathy for Ukrainians by attacking infrastructure trying to deny civilians water, electricity and heat. As a “bonus” he gets the western countries to hand over the latest top of the line drone and missile defense systems to Ukraine. So even if he stop wasting limited rockets/drones on a pipe dream of crushing Ukraines morale; Ukraine will now have systems to defend critical military assets. He stopped water to 80% of Kiev Monday morning, but 24 hours later all but a few % had their water back. His grand plans for destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure seem to be heading the same way as his grand plans for taking Kiev back in February.
Seems to me that Putin is biding his time until the US election, hoping that once GOP takes control of the legislature that support for Ukraine will weaken – “America First” and all that.
The very well may be Putin’s thinking and Lord knows how some of the MAGA crowd could care less about anyone except themselves. Notice how our Usual Suspects deride Biden and NATO for doing the right thing. But there are enough non-MAGA Republicans and sensible Democrats that will support what Biden is doing.
“The military guys on both sides know that it is advantage Ukraine on the west side of Dnipro river and advantage Russia on the east side.”
Is that true? While the Russians have real trouble to supply their forces on the west side, a fight there means that the Ukranians have to send good forces into extended urban districts. That is not good, it costs a lot of time and the Ukrainians give up their advantage at the operational level.
On the other hand would a loss of a few more roads and railway tracks on the east side of the Dnepr mean real trouble for the Russian on the Crimean peninsula, a Russian retreat from the Kerson area would be quite sure side effect. So it is for me not that clear where the next Ukranian attack will happen.
Nova Kakhovka is actually on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
Even though Nova Kakhovka is on the east (left) bank of the Dnirpro, I have just seen a report that civilians are being evacuated from that town, although not clear how vigorously, and a lot of reports out of that zone seem to come undone a bit later. Very unclear what is really happening in various parts of the Kherson oblast.
On the economic front, Kevin Drum and I had somewhat different reactions to this rant from the Wall Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614?st=5xsscn4jtw2wm4r&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The WSJ is worried that the fiscal stimulus last year could fuel continuing inflation now but their reasoning strikes me as a bit bozo. You see the WSJ is worried that households are saving their tax cuts. Excuse me but this sounds like a bunch of economic know nothings that never got the Barro-Ricardian equivalence proposition. After all, if consumption demand does not rise then aggregate demand does not rise.
Now Kevin did not get into the esoterics of macroeconomic theory but he does not how consumption demand is not that high:
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-savings-are-high-but-spending-is-normal/
So could someone at the WSJ please explain how this is inflationary?