Regarding the view the US economy was in recession earlier this year (e.g., this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following takes:
The three month moving average of the CFNAI dropped below 0 (i.e., dropped below trend growth) in May and June. The notes for the CFNAI indicate “Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70.” The CFNAI-MA3 did not breach this threshold.
As for the indications from the number of indicators falling or rising (i.e., a diffusion index), we have the following picture.
From the notes:
The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.
So, I (still) do not see a recession in 2022H1.